NYSE$NOG

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Northern Oil and Gas reported strong Q4 2022 results, marked by increased production and profitability.

Northern Oil and Gas reported a 34% increase in oil and natural gas sales, reaching $445.6 million. GAAP net income was $133.3 million, or $1.63 per diluted share, and Adjusted EBITDA increased by 51% to $264.8 million.

  • Production increased to 78,854 Boe per day, a 23% increase year-over-year.
  • GAAP cash flow from operations was $287.4 million.
  • Capital expenditures totaled $142.9 million, excluding non-budgeted acquisitions.
  • Free Cash Flow increased by 23% to $87.1 million year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$446M

Previous: $332M+34.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.43

Previous: $1.06+34.9%
Total Production

78.9K

Previous: 64.2K+22.9%
Oil Production

46.9K

Previous: 38.0K+23.5%
Adjusted EBITDA

$265M

Previous: $175M+51.1%
Capital Expenditures

$143M

Previous: $83.7M+70.7%
Free Cash Flow

$87.1M

Previous: $70.7M+23.1%
Net Income

$133M

Previous: $171M-22.1%
Operating Income

$168M

Previous: $190M-12.0%
Gross Profit

$258M

Previous: $214M+20.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.53M

Previous: $9.52M-73.4%
Total Assets

$2.88B

Previous: $1.52B+88.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.45M

Previous: $1.37M+5.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Northern Oil and Gas · Revenue · Quarterly

$446M

Q4 2022+34.1%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 8 of 14 quarters(57%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Northern Oil and Gas · $130M total across 1 segment · Q1 2020

  • Oil and Gas Sales
    $130M

Forward guidance

NOG anticipates approximately 91,000 - 96,000 Boe per day of production in 2023 and total capital spending in the range of $737 - $778 million.

Tailwinds

  • Production is expected to increase by approximately 23% at the midpoint from 2022 levels.
  • Approximately 46% of the 2023 budget will be spent on the Williston Basin.
  • Approximately 53% of the 2023 budget will be spent on the Permian Basin.
  • De minimis capital will be spent on the Appalachian and other basins.
  • Net wells added to production are expected to be between 80 and 85.

Headwinds

  • Production expenses are expected to be $9.25 - $9.50 per Boe.
  • Production taxes are estimated at 8.0 - 9.0% of Oil & Gas Sales.
  • The average differential to NYMEX WTI is projected at ($3.50) - ($4.50) per Bbl.
  • The average realization as a percentage of NYMEX Henry Hub is projected at 75% - 85%.
  • Cash G&A, excluding transaction costs, is expected to be $0.80 - $0.90 per Boe.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+2.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+7.1%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+34.4%

Q2 2010

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q3 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%-2.8%-21.1%
Q4 2025-0.6%+6.1%+16.4%
Q3 2025+5.6%+7.6%+21.3%
Q1 2025-1.9%-1.9%+7.4%
Q4 2024-0.1%-9.1%-14.9%
Q3 2024+13.4%+13.0%+14.6%
Q2 2024+7.4%-4.1%+0.2%
Q1 2024-8.9%-7.6%-8.0%
Q4 2023-0.9%+1.7%+10.5%
Q3 2023+0.9%-1.9%-1.1%
Q2 2023+5.6%+6.2%+9.2%
Q1 2023+2.7%+0.7%+1.3%
Q4 2022+5.1%+1.5%-7.3%
Q3 2022-3.2%+5.2%-11.5%
Q2 2022-12.2%-7.2%+7.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%-6.4%+20.8%
Q4 2021+2.8%+9.5%+28.2%
Q3 2021+3.4%-0.8%-20.9%
Q2 2021+8.2%+9.3%+9.9%
Q1 2021+4.1%+4.8%+23.7%
Q4 2020-2.8%-2.1%-12.4%
Q3 2020+19.7%+27.7%+124.6%
Q2 2020-4.4%-5.8%-29.1%
Q1 2020+13.8%+14.5%+48.7%
Q4 2019-1.2%-18.8%-12.5%
Q3 2019-1.9%-3.4%-8.2%
Q2 2019-7.4%+0.0%+13.6%
Q1 2019-1.3%-4.8%-12.2%
Q4 2018+11.3%+8.1%+17.6%
Q3 2018-3.5%-16.5%-23.5%
Q2 2018-2.4%-17.5%-7.6%
Q1 2018+14.9%+28.6%+42.9%
Q4 2017+7.3%+9.9%-7.3%
Q3 2017-7.7%-9.2%+24.6%
Q2 2017-5.0%+1.0%-21.0%
Q1 2017+5.1%+0.0%-12.8%
Q4 2016+1.7%-5.0%-13.3%
Q3 2016+8.6%+2.9%+85.7%
Q2 2016+6.6%+11.3%-6.9%
Q1 2016-4.8%
Q4 2015+31.8%
Q3 2015+8.0%
Q2 2015+6.1%
Q1 2015-10.8%
Q4 2014+1.7%
Q3 2014+7.5%
Q2 2014+1.7%
Q1 2014-6.3%
Q4 2013-11.5%
Q3 2013+0.8%
Q2 2013+2.0%
Q1 2013+0.4%
Q4 2012+1.2%
Q3 2012-3.5%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2011-0.3%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q4 2009-2.6%
Q4 2011-2.6%
Q3 2011-16.6%
Q3 2010-16.6%
Q2 2011+34.4%
Q4 2010+34.4%
Q2 2010+34.4%
Q1 2010+5.6%

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