NYSE$NOG

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced first quarter results and provided 2020 guidance.

Northern Oil and Gas reported a first quarter net income of $368.3 million, or $0.74 per diluted share, driven by a $345.1 million mark-to-market gain on unsettled commodity derivatives. Production increased 28% year-over-year, averaging 43,735 Boe per day, with oil production representing 79% of the total at 34,488 Bbls per day. The company also reduced its Senior Secured Notes by $90.2 million during the quarter and anticipates $175 to $200 million in total capital expenditures for 2020.

  • First quarter production increased 28% over the prior year, averaging 43,735 barrels of oil equivalent (“Boe”) per day
  • Cash flow from operations, excluding $7.1 million from changes in working capital, totaled $93.6 million, which was a 7% increase over the prior year and exceeded first quarter capital expenditures of $86.7 million
  • Senior Secured Notes reduced by $90.2 million in the first quarter; signed agreements to retire an additional $6.1 million subsequent to quarter-end
  • Over 27,000 barrels per day of remaining 2020 oil production hedged at over $58 per barrel (“Bbl”) average prices

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$507M

Previous: -$6.93M+7408.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.40

Previous: $0.70-42.9%
Total Production

43.7K

No prior period
Oil Production

34.5K

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$108M

Previous: $105M+3.1%
Capital Expenditures

$86.7M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$264M

Previous: -$107M+346.1%
Net Income

$368M

Previous: -$107M+443.7%
Operating Income

$391M

Previous: -$95.3M+510.1%
Gross Profit

$469M

Previous: -$31.6M+1585.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$8.51M

Previous: $3.94M+115.8%
Total Assets

$2.24B

Previous: $1.4B+60.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.08M

Previous: $2.75M-60.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Northern Oil and Gas · Revenue · Quarterly

$507M

Q1 2020-7,408.7%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 6 of 16 quarters(38%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Northern Oil and Gas · $130M total across 1 segment · Q1 2020

  • Oil and Gas Sales
    $130M

Forward guidance

Northern anticipates $350 to $410 million in Adjusted EBITDA for 2020 and expects $55 to $60 million of total book interest expense for 2020. Northern anticipates approximately $175 to $200 million in total capital expenditures for 2020.

Tailwinds

  • Strong oil hedge position
  • Significant free cash flow in 2020 and 2021
  • $50 million of “reserve capital” for completions of its drilled but uncompleted inventory in the event of a substantial rise in commodity prices north of $40 WTI
  • Board of Directors has elected to defer payment of the dividends on its Perpetual Preferred Stock and any potential common stock dividends until oil returns to economic levels
  • This should save the Company approximately $15 million for 2020

Headwinds

  • Rapid deterioration in oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Operators continue to curtail and shut-in production in response to low wellhead prices
  • Plans are fluctuating and the timeframe for them is fluid
  • Overall levels of production
  • In-basin pricing differentials

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+2.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+7.1%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+34.4%

Q2 2010

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q3 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%-2.8%-21.1%
Q4 2025-0.6%+6.1%+16.4%
Q3 2025+5.6%+7.6%+21.3%
Q1 2025-1.9%-1.9%+7.4%
Q4 2024-0.1%-9.1%-14.9%
Q3 2024+13.4%+13.0%+14.6%
Q2 2024+7.4%-4.1%+0.2%
Q1 2024-8.9%-7.6%-8.0%
Q4 2023-0.9%+1.7%+10.5%
Q3 2023+0.9%-1.9%-1.1%
Q2 2023+5.6%+6.2%+9.2%
Q1 2023+2.7%+0.7%+1.3%
Q4 2022+5.1%+1.5%-7.3%
Q3 2022-3.2%+5.2%-11.5%
Q2 2022-12.2%-7.2%+7.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%-6.4%+20.8%
Q4 2021+2.8%+9.5%+28.2%
Q3 2021+3.4%-0.8%-20.9%
Q2 2021+8.2%+9.3%+9.9%
Q1 2021+4.1%+4.8%+23.7%
Q4 2020-2.8%-2.1%-12.4%
Q3 2020+19.7%+27.7%+124.6%
Q2 2020-4.4%-5.8%-29.1%
Q1 2020+13.8%+14.5%+48.7%
Q4 2019-1.2%-18.8%-12.5%
Q3 2019-1.9%-3.4%-8.2%
Q2 2019-7.4%+0.0%+13.6%
Q1 2019-1.3%-4.8%-12.2%
Q4 2018+11.3%+8.1%+17.6%
Q3 2018-3.5%-16.5%-23.5%
Q2 2018-2.4%-17.5%-7.6%
Q1 2018+14.9%+28.6%+42.9%
Q4 2017+7.3%+9.9%-7.3%
Q3 2017-7.7%-9.2%+24.6%
Q2 2017-5.0%+1.0%-21.0%
Q1 2017+5.1%+0.0%-12.8%
Q4 2016+1.7%-5.0%-13.3%
Q3 2016+8.6%+2.9%+85.7%
Q2 2016+6.6%+11.3%-6.9%
Q1 2016-4.8%
Q4 2015+31.8%
Q3 2015+8.0%
Q2 2015+6.1%
Q1 2015-10.8%
Q4 2014+1.7%
Q3 2014+7.5%
Q2 2014+1.7%
Q1 2014-6.3%
Q4 2013-11.5%
Q3 2013+0.8%
Q2 2013+2.0%
Q1 2013+0.4%
Q4 2012+1.2%
Q3 2012-3.5%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2011-0.3%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q4 2009-2.6%
Q4 2011-2.6%
Q3 2011-16.6%
Q3 2010-16.6%
Q2 2011+34.4%
Q4 2010+34.4%
Q2 2010+34.4%
Q1 2010+5.6%

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