NYSE$NOG

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. · Q2 2024 earnings

Q2 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Northern Oil and Gas's financial performance significantly improved, marked by record production and strategic acquisitions.

Northern Oil and Gas announced record quarterly production and strong financial results for Q2 2024. The company achieved record production of 123,342 Boe per day, a 36% increase year-over-year. Net income was $138.6 million, and Adjusted EBITDA reached $413.1 million, a 31% increase from Q2 2023. The company also announced strategic acquisitions and increased shareholder returns through share repurchases and dividend recommendations.

  • Record quarterly production of 123,342 Boe per day, a 36% increase year-over-year.
  • GAAP net income of $138.6 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $413.1 million.
  • Cash flow from operations increased by 33% compared to Q2 2023.
  • Announced joint acquisitions in the Uinta and Delaware Basins.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$561M

Previous: $477M+17.7%
EPS

$1.36

Previous: $1.49-8.7%
Total Production

123.3K

Previous: 90.9K+35.7%
Oil Production

69.6K

Previous: 54.7K+27.2%
Adjusted EBITDA

$413M

Previous: $316M+30.9%
Capital Expenditures

$237M

Previous: $233M+2.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$466M

Previous: -$666M+30.0%
Net Income

$139M

Previous: $168M-17.4%
Operating Income

$219M

Previous: $235M-6.8%
Gross Profit

$460M

Previous: $392M+17.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$7.78M

Previous: $14.8M-47.5%
Total Assets

$4.72B

Previous: $3.66B+28.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.03M

Previous: $1.04M+191.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Northern Oil and Gas · Revenue · Quarterly

$561M

Q2 2024+17.7%vs Q2 2023
Beat estimate in 8 of 14 quarters(57%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Northern Oil and Gas · $130M total across 1 segment · Q1 2020

  • Oil and Gas Sales
    $130M

Forward guidance

NOG is providing preliminary updated annual guidance, with the assumption that the pending XCL and Point acquisitions close on October 1, 2024. Overall, the impact of the acquisitions serves to increase annual production and to reduce per unit operating expenses, production tax rates and per unit cash G&A costs.

Tailwinds

  • Annual Production (Boe per day) revised to 120,000 - 124,000 from 115,000 - 120,000
  • Annual Oil Production (Bbls per day) revised to 73,000 - 76,000 from 70,000 - 73,000
  • Net Wells Turned-in-Line (“TIL”) revised to 93.0 - 98.0 from 87.5 - 92.5
  • Net Wells Spud revised to 73.0 - 78.0 from 67.5 - 72.5
  • Production Taxes (as a percentage of Oil & Gas Sales) revised to 9.0% - 9.5% from 9.0% - 10.0%

Headwinds

  • Total Capital Expenditures ($ in millions) revised to $890 - $970 from $825 - $900
  • Production Expenses (per Boe) revised to $9.15 - $9.40 from $9.25 - $9.90
  • Average Differential to NYMEX WTI (per Bbl) revised to ($4.00) - ($4.85) from ($4.00) - ($4.40)
  • Average Realization as a Percentage of NYMEX Henry Hub (per Mcf) revised to 87.5% - 92.5% from 80% - 85%
  • DD&A Rate (per Boe) revised to $16.50 - $17.50 from $15.50 - $17.50

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2024

Historical avgQ2 2024

+2.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+7.1%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+34.4%

Q2 2010

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q3 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%-2.8%-21.1%
Q4 2025-0.6%+6.1%+16.4%
Q3 2025+5.6%+7.6%+21.3%
Q1 2025-1.9%-1.9%+7.4%
Q4 2024-0.1%-9.1%-14.9%
Q3 2024+13.4%+13.0%+14.6%
Q2 2024+7.4%-4.1%+0.2%
Q1 2024-8.9%-7.6%-8.0%
Q4 2023-0.9%+1.7%+10.5%
Q3 2023+0.9%-1.9%-1.1%
Q2 2023+5.6%+6.2%+9.2%
Q1 2023+2.7%+0.7%+1.3%
Q4 2022+5.1%+1.5%-7.3%
Q3 2022-3.2%+5.2%-11.5%
Q2 2022-12.2%-7.2%+7.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%-6.4%+20.8%
Q4 2021+2.8%+9.5%+28.2%
Q3 2021+3.4%-0.8%-20.9%
Q2 2021+8.2%+9.3%+9.9%
Q1 2021+4.1%+4.8%+23.7%
Q4 2020-2.8%-2.1%-12.4%
Q3 2020+19.7%+27.7%+124.6%
Q2 2020-4.4%-5.8%-29.1%
Q1 2020+13.8%+14.5%+48.7%
Q4 2019-1.2%-18.8%-12.5%
Q3 2019-1.9%-3.4%-8.2%
Q2 2019-7.4%+0.0%+13.6%
Q1 2019-1.3%-4.8%-12.2%
Q4 2018+11.3%+8.1%+17.6%
Q3 2018-3.5%-16.5%-23.5%
Q2 2018-2.4%-17.5%-7.6%
Q1 2018+14.9%+28.6%+42.9%
Q4 2017+7.3%+9.9%-7.3%
Q3 2017-7.7%-9.2%+24.6%
Q2 2017-5.0%+1.0%-21.0%
Q1 2017+5.1%+0.0%-12.8%
Q4 2016+1.7%-5.0%-13.3%
Q3 2016+8.6%+2.9%+85.7%
Q2 2016+6.6%+11.3%-6.9%
Q1 2016-4.8%
Q4 2015+31.8%
Q3 2015+8.0%
Q2 2015+6.1%
Q1 2015-10.8%
Q4 2014+1.7%
Q3 2014+7.5%
Q2 2014+1.7%
Q1 2014-6.3%
Q4 2013-11.5%
Q3 2013+0.8%
Q2 2013+2.0%
Q1 2013+0.4%
Q4 2012+1.2%
Q3 2012-3.5%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2011-0.3%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q4 2009-2.6%
Q4 2011-2.6%
Q3 2011-16.6%
Q3 2010-16.6%
Q2 2011+34.4%
Q4 2010+34.4%
Q2 2010+34.4%
Q1 2010+5.6%

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