NYSE$NOG

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced first quarter results, demonstrating strong operational performance and strategic acquisitions.

Northern Oil and Gas reported a strong first quarter with production exceeding internal expectations, driven by the Williston & Permian properties. The company generated $41.7 million in Free Cash Flow and improved its liquidity and balance sheet through strategic financings and debt reduction. They also declared their first ever quarterly common stock dividend.

  • First quarter production reached 38,417 Boe per day, a 7.5% increase sequentially.
  • GAAP cash flow from operations was $62.8 million, and Free Cash Flow was $41.7 million.
  • Capital expenditures totaled $38.1 million, a 22% decrease from the previous quarter.
  • The company closed the Appalachian Basin acquisition from Reliance Marcellus, LLC.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$21.4M

Previous: $507M-95.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.62

Previous: $0.40+55.0%
Total Production

38.4K

Previous: 43.7K-12.2%
Adjusted EBITDA

$98.8M

Previous: $108M-8.6%
Capital Expenditures

$38.1M

Previous: $86.7M-56.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$126M

Previous: $264M-147.6%
Net Income

-$90.4M

Previous: $368M-124.5%
Operating Income

-$64.4M

Previous: $391M-116.5%
Gross Profit

-$12.9M

Previous: $469M-102.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.73M

Previous: $8.51M-67.9%
Total Assets

$873M

Previous: $2.24B-61.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$769K

Previous: $1.08M-28.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Northern Oil and Gas · Revenue · Quarterly

$21.4M

Q1 2021-95.8%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 6 of 16 quarters(38%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Northern Oil and Gas · $130M total across 1 segment · Q1 2020

  • Oil and Gas Sales
    $130M

Forward guidance

Northern Oil and Gas provided estimated guidance for 2021 for Williston and Permian Properties, as well as Reliance Marcellus Properties and Corporate.

Tailwinds

  • Annual Production (Boe per day): 37,750 - 42,750
  • Net Wells Added to Production: 32 - 34
  • Oil as a Percentage of Sales Volumes: 78 - 80%
  • Annual Production (Mmcf per day): 75 - 85 (Reliance Marcellus Properties)
  • Total Capital Expenditures (in millions): $200 - $250

Headwinds

  • Production Expenses (per Boe): $8.75 - $9.75
  • Average Differential to NYMEX WTI: $6.50 - $8.50
  • Production, Asset G&A and Marketing Expenses (per Mcf): $0.85 - $0.95 (Reliance Marcellus Properties)
  • Average Differential to NYMEX Henry Hub (per Mcf): $0.55 - $0.65 (Reliance Marcellus Properties)
  • General and Administrative Expense (per Boe): $0.80 - $0.90

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

+2.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+7.1%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+34.4%

Q2 2010

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q3 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%-2.8%-21.1%
Q4 2025-0.6%+6.1%+16.4%
Q3 2025+5.6%+7.6%+21.3%
Q1 2025-1.9%-1.9%+7.4%
Q4 2024-0.1%-9.1%-14.9%
Q3 2024+13.4%+13.0%+14.6%
Q2 2024+7.4%-4.1%+0.2%
Q1 2024-8.9%-7.6%-8.0%
Q4 2023-0.9%+1.7%+10.5%
Q3 2023+0.9%-1.9%-1.1%
Q2 2023+5.6%+6.2%+9.2%
Q1 2023+2.7%+0.7%+1.3%
Q4 2022+5.1%+1.5%-7.3%
Q3 2022-3.2%+5.2%-11.5%
Q2 2022-12.2%-7.2%+7.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%-6.4%+20.8%
Q4 2021+2.8%+9.5%+28.2%
Q3 2021+3.4%-0.8%-20.9%
Q2 2021+8.2%+9.3%+9.9%
Q1 2021+4.1%+4.8%+23.7%
Q4 2020-2.8%-2.1%-12.4%
Q3 2020+19.7%+27.7%+124.6%
Q2 2020-4.4%-5.8%-29.1%
Q1 2020+13.8%+14.5%+48.7%
Q4 2019-1.2%-18.8%-12.5%
Q3 2019-1.9%-3.4%-8.2%
Q2 2019-7.4%+0.0%+13.6%
Q1 2019-1.3%-4.8%-12.2%
Q4 2018+11.3%+8.1%+17.6%
Q3 2018-3.5%-16.5%-23.5%
Q2 2018-2.4%-17.5%-7.6%
Q1 2018+14.9%+28.6%+42.9%
Q4 2017+7.3%+9.9%-7.3%
Q3 2017-7.7%-9.2%+24.6%
Q2 2017-5.0%+1.0%-21.0%
Q1 2017+5.1%+0.0%-12.8%
Q4 2016+1.7%-5.0%-13.3%
Q3 2016+8.6%+2.9%+85.7%
Q2 2016+6.6%+11.3%-6.9%
Q1 2016-4.8%
Q4 2015+31.8%
Q3 2015+8.0%
Q2 2015+6.1%
Q1 2015-10.8%
Q4 2014+1.7%
Q3 2014+7.5%
Q2 2014+1.7%
Q1 2014-6.3%
Q4 2013-11.5%
Q3 2013+0.8%
Q2 2013+2.0%
Q1 2013+0.4%
Q4 2012+1.2%
Q3 2012-3.5%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2011-0.3%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q4 2009-2.6%
Q4 2011-2.6%
Q3 2011-16.6%
Q3 2010-16.6%
Q2 2011+34.4%
Q4 2010+34.4%
Q2 2010+34.4%
Q1 2010+5.6%

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