NYSE$NOG

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced fourth quarter and full year 2020 results, demonstrating cash generating power and commitment to capital allocation.

Northern Oil and Gas announced strong Q4 2020 results, with a 23% increase in production from the previous quarter and a focus on return on capital employed. The company also reduced its total debt balance and completed significant common stock and senior notes offerings.

  • Q4 production increased by 23% compared to Q3.
  • Cash flow from operations increased by 19% compared to Q3.
  • Total debt reduced by $39.0 million in Q4 and $178.0 million in 2020.
  • Completed common stock and senior notes offerings in February 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$99.5M

Previous: $161M-38.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.64

Previous: $0.50+28.0%
Total Production

35.7K

Previous: 43.9K-18.7%
Oil Production

27.3K

Previous: 35.0K-22.1%
Adjusted EBITDA

$94.3M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$48.9M

No prior period
Net Income

-$142M

Previous: -$108M-31.7%
Operating Income

-$129M

Previous: -$62.5M-105.9%
Gross Profit

$29.5M

Previous: $45.7M-35.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.43M

Previous: $16.1M-91.1%
Total Assets

$872M

Previous: $1.91B-54.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$937K

Previous: $3.68M-74.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Northern Oil and Gas · Revenue · Quarterly

$99.5M

Q4 2020-38.1%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 6 of 16 quarters(38%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Northern Oil and Gas · $130M total across 1 segment · Q1 2020

  • Oil and Gas Sales
    $130M

Forward guidance

Northern provided estimated guidance for 2021, including annual production, net wells added, total capital expenditures, and operating expenses for both existing Williston and Permian properties, as well as Reliance assets (pending acquisition).

Tailwinds

  • Annual Production (Boe per day) 37,750 - 42,750
  • Net Wells Added to Production 32 - 34
  • Oil as a Percentage of Production Volumes 78 - 80%
  • Annual Production (Mmcf per day) 75 - 85
  • Net Wells Added to Production 3.5 - 3.8

Headwinds

  • Average Differential to NYMEX WTI $6.50 - $8.50
  • Production Expenses (per Boe) $8.75 - $9.75
  • Production Taxes 10% of Net Oil Revenues, $0.06 per Mcf for Natural Gas
  • Total Capital Expenditures ($ in millions) $180 - $225
  • Total Capital Expenditures ($ in millions) $20 - $25

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+2.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+7.1%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+34.4%

Q2 2010

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q3 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%-2.8%-21.1%
Q4 2025-0.6%+6.1%+16.4%
Q3 2025+5.6%+7.6%+21.3%
Q1 2025-1.9%-1.9%+7.4%
Q4 2024-0.1%-9.1%-14.9%
Q3 2024+13.4%+13.0%+14.6%
Q2 2024+7.4%-4.1%+0.2%
Q1 2024-8.9%-7.6%-8.0%
Q4 2023-0.9%+1.7%+10.5%
Q3 2023+0.9%-1.9%-1.1%
Q2 2023+5.6%+6.2%+9.2%
Q1 2023+2.7%+0.7%+1.3%
Q4 2022+5.1%+1.5%-7.3%
Q3 2022-3.2%+5.2%-11.5%
Q2 2022-12.2%-7.2%+7.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%-6.4%+20.8%
Q4 2021+2.8%+9.5%+28.2%
Q3 2021+3.4%-0.8%-20.9%
Q2 2021+8.2%+9.3%+9.9%
Q1 2021+4.1%+4.8%+23.7%
Q4 2020-2.8%-2.1%-12.4%
Q3 2020+19.7%+27.7%+124.6%
Q2 2020-4.4%-5.8%-29.1%
Q1 2020+13.8%+14.5%+48.7%
Q4 2019-1.2%-18.8%-12.5%
Q3 2019-1.9%-3.4%-8.2%
Q2 2019-7.4%+0.0%+13.6%
Q1 2019-1.3%-4.8%-12.2%
Q4 2018+11.3%+8.1%+17.6%
Q3 2018-3.5%-16.5%-23.5%
Q2 2018-2.4%-17.5%-7.6%
Q1 2018+14.9%+28.6%+42.9%
Q4 2017+7.3%+9.9%-7.3%
Q3 2017-7.7%-9.2%+24.6%
Q2 2017-5.0%+1.0%-21.0%
Q1 2017+5.1%+0.0%-12.8%
Q4 2016+1.7%-5.0%-13.3%
Q3 2016+8.6%+2.9%+85.7%
Q2 2016+6.6%+11.3%-6.9%
Q1 2016-4.8%
Q4 2015+31.8%
Q3 2015+8.0%
Q2 2015+6.1%
Q1 2015-10.8%
Q4 2014+1.7%
Q3 2014+7.5%
Q2 2014+1.7%
Q1 2014-6.3%
Q4 2013-11.5%
Q3 2013+0.8%
Q2 2013+2.0%
Q1 2013+0.4%
Q4 2012+1.2%
Q3 2012-3.5%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2011-0.3%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q4 2009-2.6%
Q4 2011-2.6%
Q3 2011-16.6%
Q3 2010-16.6%
Q2 2011+34.4%
Q4 2010+34.4%
Q2 2010+34.4%
Q1 2010+5.6%

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