NYSE$NOG

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced second quarter results, including record quarterly production.

Northern Oil and Gas reported record quarterly production of 90,878 Boe per day, a 25% increase from the previous year. Net income was $167.8 million, and Adjusted EBITDA reached $315.5 million, a 16% increase year-over-year. The company also closed on the acquisition of a 30% stake in the Forge assets and entered into an agreement for a stake in the Novo assets.

  • Record quarterly production of 90,878 Boe per day, up 25% year-over-year.
  • Net income of $167.8 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $315.5 million.
  • Closed on the acquisition of a 30% stake in the Forge assets for $167.9 million.
  • Entered into a joint acquisition agreement for a 33.33% stake in the Novo assets for $500.0 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$477M

Previous: $441M+8.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.49

Previous: $1.72-13.4%
Total Production

90.9K

Previous: 72.7K+25.0%
Oil Production

54.7K

Previous: 41.8K+31.0%
Adjusted EBITDA

$316M

Previous: $273M+15.8%
Capital Expenditures

$233M

Previous: $132M+76.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$666M

Previous: -$278M-140.0%
Net Income

$168M

Previous: $251M-33.2%
Operating Income

$235M

Previous: $270M-13.1%
Gross Profit

$392M

Previous: $377M+4.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$14.8M

Previous: $1.47M+906.5%
Total Assets

$3.66B

Previous: $2.19B+67.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.04M

Previous: $1.42M-26.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Northern Oil and Gas · Revenue · Quarterly

$477M

Q2 2023+8%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 14 quarters(57%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Northern Oil and Gas · $130M total across 1 segment · Q1 2020

  • Oil and Gas Sales
    $130M

Forward guidance

NOG issued updated 2023 guidance to reflect recent acquisitions and other matters.

Tailwinds

  • Annual Production (Boe per day) 96,000 - 100,000
  • Q3 2023 Production (Boe per day) 99,000 - 103,000
  • Oil as a Percentage of Production 62.0% - 63.0%
  • Net Wells Turned-in-Line (“TIL”) 75 - 78
  • Non-Cash General and Administrative Expense (per Boe) $0.20 - $0.25

Headwinds

  • Average Differential to NYMEX WTI (per Bbl) ($3.25) - ($4.25)
  • Average Realization as a Percentage of NYMEX Henry Hub (per Mcf) 85.0% - 95.0%
  • Total Budgeted Capital Expenditures (in millions) $764 - $800
  • Production Expenses (per Boe) $9.35 - $9.55
  • Production Taxes (as a percentage of Oil & Gas Sales) 8.0% - 9.0%

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

+2.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+7.1%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+34.4%

Q2 2010

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q3 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%-2.8%-21.1%
Q4 2025-0.6%+6.1%+16.4%
Q3 2025+5.6%+7.6%+21.3%
Q1 2025-1.9%-1.9%+7.4%
Q4 2024-0.1%-9.1%-14.9%
Q3 2024+13.4%+13.0%+14.6%
Q2 2024+7.4%-4.1%+0.2%
Q1 2024-8.9%-7.6%-8.0%
Q4 2023-0.9%+1.7%+10.5%
Q3 2023+0.9%-1.9%-1.1%
Q2 2023+5.6%+6.2%+9.2%
Q1 2023+2.7%+0.7%+1.3%
Q4 2022+5.1%+1.5%-7.3%
Q3 2022-3.2%+5.2%-11.5%
Q2 2022-12.2%-7.2%+7.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%-6.4%+20.8%
Q4 2021+2.8%+9.5%+28.2%
Q3 2021+3.4%-0.8%-20.9%
Q2 2021+8.2%+9.3%+9.9%
Q1 2021+4.1%+4.8%+23.7%
Q4 2020-2.8%-2.1%-12.4%
Q3 2020+19.7%+27.7%+124.6%
Q2 2020-4.4%-5.8%-29.1%
Q1 2020+13.8%+14.5%+48.7%
Q4 2019-1.2%-18.8%-12.5%
Q3 2019-1.9%-3.4%-8.2%
Q2 2019-7.4%+0.0%+13.6%
Q1 2019-1.3%-4.8%-12.2%
Q4 2018+11.3%+8.1%+17.6%
Q3 2018-3.5%-16.5%-23.5%
Q2 2018-2.4%-17.5%-7.6%
Q1 2018+14.9%+28.6%+42.9%
Q4 2017+7.3%+9.9%-7.3%
Q3 2017-7.7%-9.2%+24.6%
Q2 2017-5.0%+1.0%-21.0%
Q1 2017+5.1%+0.0%-12.8%
Q4 2016+1.7%-5.0%-13.3%
Q3 2016+8.6%+2.9%+85.7%
Q2 2016+6.6%+11.3%-6.9%
Q1 2016-4.8%
Q4 2015+31.8%
Q3 2015+8.0%
Q2 2015+6.1%
Q1 2015-10.8%
Q4 2014+1.7%
Q3 2014+7.5%
Q2 2014+1.7%
Q1 2014-6.3%
Q4 2013-11.5%
Q3 2013+0.8%
Q2 2013+2.0%
Q1 2013+0.4%
Q4 2012+1.2%
Q3 2012-3.5%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2011-0.3%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q4 2009-2.6%
Q4 2011-2.6%
Q3 2011-16.6%
Q3 2010-16.6%
Q2 2011+34.4%
Q4 2010+34.4%
Q2 2010+34.4%
Q1 2010+5.6%

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