NYSE$HOG

Harley-Davidson Inc · Q2 2022 earnings

Q2 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Harley-Davidson's Q2 2022 financial performance was impacted by a production suspension, but pricing and growth in apparel partially offset the negative impact. The company reaffirms its full-year 2022 outlook.

Harley-Davidson reported a decrease in revenue and operating income for Q2 2022, primarily due to a production suspension. However, pricing strategies and growth in apparel helped to mitigate the negative impact. The company reaffirms its full-year 2022 outlook.

  • Global motorcycle shipments decreased by 15% due to a two-week production suspension.
  • HDMC revenue declined by 5%, but global pricing and apparel growth partially offset the impact.
  • HDMC operating income margin increased by 1.2 points to 15.1% due to pricing, lower operating expenses, and reduced EU tariffs.
  • GAAP diluted EPS increased by 10% to $1.46, and Harley-Davidson repurchased $64 million of shares.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.47B

Previous: $1.53B-4.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.46

Previous: $1.41+3.5%
US Wholesale Shipments

28.4K

Previous: 36.1K-21.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$55M

Previous: -$37.6M-46.4%
Free Cash Flow

$161M

Previous: $169M-4.7%
Net Income

$216M

Previous: $206M+4.6%
Operating Income

$278M

Previous: $280M-1.0%
Gross Profit

$589M

Previous: $608M-3.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.19B

Previous: $1.74B+26.0%
Total Assets

$12.1B

Previous: $10.9B+11.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$10.9M

Previous: $14.4M-24.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Harley-Davidson · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.47B

Q2 2022-4.1%vs Q2 2021
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Harley-Davidson · $1.27B total across 5 segments · Q2 2022

  • Motorcycles
    $940M-8.7%
  • Parts & Accessories
    $215M-3.7%
  • Apparel
    $77.3M+39.0%
  • Other HDMC
    $22.8M+55.8%
  • Licensing
    $11.8M+32.8%

Forward guidance

For the full year 2022, the Company reaffirms its initial guidance and continues to expect: HDMC revenue growth of 5 to 10%, HDMC operating income margin of 11 to 12%, HDFS operating income to decline by 20 to 25%, and Capital investments of $190 million to $220 million.

Tailwinds

  • HDMC revenue growth of 5 to 10%
  • HDMC operating income margin of 11 to 12%
  • Capital investments of $190 million to $220 million
  • Manufacturing, logistics and material costs moderately improve in the back-half of the year
  • Overall operations performance stabilizes and we get beyond the peak levels of inflation experienced in 2021

Headwinds

  • HDFS operating income to decline by 20 to 25%
  • The COVID-19 pandemic, including the length and severity of the pandemic across the globe and the pace of recovery following the pandemic
  • Manage supply chain and logistic issues, including quality issues, availability of semiconductor chip components and the ability to find alternative sources of those components in a timely manner, unexpected interruptions or price increases caused by supplier volatility, raw material shortages, war or other hostilities, including the conflict in Ukraine, or natural disasters, and longer shipping times and increased logistics costs, including by successfully implementing pricing surcharges
  • Realize the expected business benefits from the combination of LiveWire with ABIC, which may be affected by competition
  • Accurately analyze, predict and react to changing market conditions and successfully adjust to shifting global consumer needs and interests

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2022

Historical avgQ2 2022

+1.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+28.6%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-17.8%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%+9.4%+5.0%
Q4 2025+4.0%+1.4%-10.8%
Q3 2025-6.6%-5.6%-12.5%
Q1 2025+2.8%+4.0%+8.0%
Q4 2024-1.6%-3.9%-2.7%
Q3 2024-6.7%-4.4%-1.7%
Q2 2024+8.7%+13.3%+12.6%
Q1 2024-11.9%-12.8%-10.7%
Q4 2023+6.7%+6.5%+11.4%
Q3 2023-9.2%-6.8%+5.8%
Q2 2023+2.8%+2.3%-11.0%
Q1 2023+0.5%-1.3%-10.7%
Q4 2022+9.8%+7.5%+1.7%
Q3 2022+12.2%+15.8%+28.5%
Q2 2022+10.2%+6.9%+16.6%
Q1 2022+1.6%+0.4%-0.4%
Q4 2021+20.0%+15.5%+7.4%
Q3 2021+4.3%+12.2%+5.4%
Q2 2021-8.6%-6.8%-9.7%
Q1 2021+14.4%+18.9%+21.2%
Q4 2020-17.8%-16.1%-12.5%
Q3 2020+16.8%+13.4%+41.3%
Q2 2020-3.6%-11.1%-3.9%
Q1 2020+28.6%+7.7%+23.8%
Q4 2019-2.9%-4.1%-10.5%
Q3 2019+6.7%+6.2%-3.5%
Q2 2019+4.1%+4.7%-6.7%
Q1 2019-4.9%-6.6%-13.7%
Q4 2018-0.4%+0.1%+1.4%
Q3 2018-2.6%-7.1%+3.5%
Q2 2018+8.8%+7.1%+3.1%
Q1 2018+3.2%+2.0%+2.0%
Q4 2017-12.4%-14.1%-18.4%
Q3 2017+3.1%+6.3%+3.3%
Q2 2017-6.2%-7.2%-9.4%
Q1 2017-5.0%-6.0%-11.2%
Q4 2016-2.3%-2.5%+1.2%
Q3 2016+10.2%+13.4%+16.9%
Q2 2016+4.6%+1.7%+3.9%
Q1 2016-0.0%
Q4 2015+6.7%
Q3 2015-16.1%
Q2 2015+6.7%
Q1 2015-9.0%
Q4 2014-0.9%
Q3 2014+6.1%
Q2 2014-3.7%
Q1 2014+6.2%
Q4 2013-3.7%
Q3 2013-2.4%
Q2 2013-0.9%
Q1 2013+1.6%
Q4 2012-0.4%
Q3 2012+6.5%
Q2 2012-4.7%
Q1 2012+5.0%
Q4 2010+0.5%
Q4 2011+0.5%
Q3 2011+0.3%
Q2 2011-7.0%
Q1 2011-1.0%
Q3 2010+6.4%
Q2 2010+0.6%
Q1 2009-4.3%
Q1 2010+1.4%
Q4 2007+1.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%
Q3 2009-5.3%
Q3 2008-5.3%
Q4 2008+4.7%
Q2 2008+4.7%
Q2 2009+4.7%

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