NYSE$HOG

Harley-Davidson Inc · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Harley-Davidson reported strong first-quarter financial results and raised full-year financial guidance.

Harley-Davidson reported a strong first quarter with a 10% increase in consolidated revenue and significant net income improvement driven by both Motorcycles and Financial Services segments. The company has increased its full-year guidance for Motorcycles segment revenue and operating margin, as well as Financial Services segment operating income.

  • Delivered Q1 GAAP diluted EPS of $1.68, up $1.23 over Q1 2020.
  • Motorcycles and Related Products segment revenue up 12 percent amid strong retail demand for Touring motorcycles.
  • Significantly improved Motorcycles segment gross margin and operating margin driven by favorable mix following the Rewire product portfolio adjustments, lower sales incentives and reduced SG&A.
  • Increased Q1 cash flow from operations to $163 million, up $171 million over Q1 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.42B

Previous: $1.3B+9.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.68

Previous: $0.51+229.4%
US Wholesale Shipments

40.2K

Previous: 33.0K+21.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$18.8M

Previous: -$32.9M+42.9%
Free Cash Flow

$240M

Previous: $36.8M+553.7%
Net Income

$259M

Previous: $69.7M+271.8%
Operating Income

$346M

Previous: $108M+222.0%
Gross Profit

$611M

Previous: $517M+18.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.32B

Previous: $1.47B+58.4%
Total Assets

$11.3B

Previous: $11.1B+1.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$8.97M

Previous: $3.9M+130.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Harley-Davidson · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.42B

Q1 2021+9.6%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Harley-Davidson · $1.23B total across 5 segments · Q1 2021

  • Motorcycles
    $1.02B+13.0%
  • Parts & Accessories
    $150M+11.4%
  • Apparel
    $50M+1.7%
  • Other HDMC
    $10M+17.0%
  • Licensing
    $6M-25.3%

Forward guidance

For the full-year 2021, the company now expects Motorcycles segment revenue growth to be 30 to 35 percent, Motorcycles segment operating income margin of 7 to 9 percent, and Financial Services segment operating income growth of 50 to 60 percent.

Tailwinds

  • Motorcycles segment revenue growth to be 30 to 35 percent, an increase from the previously communicated growth range of 20 to 25 percent.
  • Motorcycles segment operating income margin of 7 to 9 percent, which is 200 basis points better than previous guidance.
  • Financial Services segment operating income growth of 50 to 60 percent, an increase from the previously communicated range of 10 to 15 percent.
  • Capital expenditures of $190 million to $220 million.
  • Cash allocation priorities remain to first fund growth through The Hardwire initiatives, then to pay dividends and, given the company’s continued strong cash position, the company will be evaluating share repurchases and may choose to repurchase shares.

Headwinds

  • Assuming the company is not able to mitigate the additional EU tariffs to any extent in 2021, the company expects the operating income margin would be 5 to 7 percent, in line with original guidance.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic, including the length and severity of the pandemic across the globe and the pace of recovery following the pandemic
  • The company’s ability to execute its business plans and strategies, including The Hardwire, successfully execute its remodeled approach to supply and inventory management, and strengthen its existing business while allowing for desirable growth
  • The company’s ability to mitigate the impact of the revocation of the Binding Origin Information (“BOI”) decisions that allowed the company to supply its European Union market with certain of its motorcycles produced at its Thailand operations at a reduced tariff rate and favorably resolve risks and uncertainties related to the revocation of the BOI decisions
  • The company’s ability to accurately analyze, predict and react to changing market conditions and successfully adjust to shifting global consumer needs and interests

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

+1.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+28.6%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-17.8%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%+9.4%+5.0%
Q4 2025+4.0%+1.4%-10.8%
Q3 2025-6.6%-5.6%-12.5%
Q1 2025+2.8%+4.0%+8.0%
Q4 2024-1.6%-3.9%-2.7%
Q3 2024-6.7%-4.4%-1.7%
Q2 2024+8.7%+13.3%+12.6%
Q1 2024-11.9%-12.8%-10.7%
Q4 2023+6.7%+6.5%+11.4%
Q3 2023-9.2%-6.8%+5.8%
Q2 2023+2.8%+2.3%-11.0%
Q1 2023+0.5%-1.3%-10.7%
Q4 2022+9.8%+7.5%+1.7%
Q3 2022+12.2%+15.8%+28.5%
Q2 2022+10.2%+6.9%+16.6%
Q1 2022+1.6%+0.4%-0.4%
Q4 2021+20.0%+15.5%+7.4%
Q3 2021+4.3%+12.2%+5.4%
Q2 2021-8.6%-6.8%-9.7%
Q1 2021+14.4%+18.9%+21.2%
Q4 2020-17.8%-16.1%-12.5%
Q3 2020+16.8%+13.4%+41.3%
Q2 2020-3.6%-11.1%-3.9%
Q1 2020+28.6%+7.7%+23.8%
Q4 2019-2.9%-4.1%-10.5%
Q3 2019+6.7%+6.2%-3.5%
Q2 2019+4.1%+4.7%-6.7%
Q1 2019-4.9%-6.6%-13.7%
Q4 2018-0.4%+0.1%+1.4%
Q3 2018-2.6%-7.1%+3.5%
Q2 2018+8.8%+7.1%+3.1%
Q1 2018+3.2%+2.0%+2.0%
Q4 2017-12.4%-14.1%-18.4%
Q3 2017+3.1%+6.3%+3.3%
Q2 2017-6.2%-7.2%-9.4%
Q1 2017-5.0%-6.0%-11.2%
Q4 2016-2.3%-2.5%+1.2%
Q3 2016+10.2%+13.4%+16.9%
Q2 2016+4.6%+1.7%+3.9%
Q1 2016-0.0%
Q4 2015+6.7%
Q3 2015-16.1%
Q2 2015+6.7%
Q1 2015-9.0%
Q4 2014-0.9%
Q3 2014+6.1%
Q2 2014-3.7%
Q1 2014+6.2%
Q4 2013-3.7%
Q3 2013-2.4%
Q2 2013-0.9%
Q1 2013+1.6%
Q4 2012-0.4%
Q3 2012+6.5%
Q2 2012-4.7%
Q1 2012+5.0%
Q4 2010+0.5%
Q4 2011+0.5%
Q3 2011+0.3%
Q2 2011-7.0%
Q1 2011-1.0%
Q3 2010+6.4%
Q2 2010+0.6%
Q1 2009-4.3%
Q1 2010+1.4%
Q4 2007+1.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%
Q3 2009-5.3%
Q3 2008-5.3%
Q4 2008+4.7%
Q2 2008+4.7%
Q2 2009+4.7%

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