NYSE$HOG

Harley-Davidson Inc · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Harley-Davidson's Q3 2024 results were impacted by macroeconomic pressures, mitigated by strategic efforts and a focus on setting up for a solid 2025.

Harley-Davidson reported a decrease in consolidated revenue and operating income for Q3 2024, driven by lower motorcycle shipments and global retail sales. While HDFS saw revenue and operating income growth, HDMC experienced declines in revenue and gross margin. The company is lowering its full-year 2024 financial outlook.

  • Diluted EPS was reported at $0.91.
  • Consolidated operating income decreased by 49% year-over-year to $106 million.
  • Global retail sales decreased by 13% compared to the prior year.
  • HDMC gross margin was 30.1%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.15B

Previous: $1.55B-25.7%
EPS

$0.91

Previous: $1.38-34.1%
US Wholesale Shipments

15.8K

Previous: 30.2K-47.5%
Worldwide Wholesale Shipments

27.5K

No prior period
Worldwide Retail Sales

36.2K

No prior period
North America Retail Sales

24.6K

No prior period
EMEA Retail Sales

6.1K

No prior period
Asia Pacific Retail Sales

4.8K

No prior period
Latin America Retail Sales

707

No prior period
LiveWire Unit Sales

99

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$140M

Previous: -$139M-1.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$21.4M

Previous: $59.7M-135.8%
Net Income

$119M

Previous: $199M-40.1%
Operating Income

$106M

Previous: $209M-49.4%
Gross Profit

$532M

Previous: $656M-18.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.24B

Previous: $1.88B+19.5%
Total Assets

$13B

Previous: $12.5B+4.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$10.8M

Previous: $20.1M-46.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Harley-Davidson · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.15B

Q3 2024-25.7%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Harley-Davidson · $2.96B total across 5 segments · Q3 2023

  • Parts & Accessories
    $1.85B+819.4%
  • Motorcycles
    $1.02B-9.8%
  • Apparel
    $49.3M-29.5%
  • Other HDMC
    $30.2M+37.1%
  • Licensing
    $9.59M-12.9%

Forward guidance

For the full year 2024, the company now expects HDMC revenue to be down 14 to 16 percent compared to 2023, HDMC operating income margin between 7.5 and 8.5 percent, HDFS operating income up 5 to 10 percent compared to 2023, and LiveWire electric motorcycle unit sales of 600 to 1,000.

Tailwinds

  • Touring launch well-received by customers and dealers.
  • Working to set the Company up for a solid 2025.
  • Optimistic about ability to make sound progress in the new year.
  • Expecting further interest rate reductions.
  • Improved consumer confidence will provide the industry with a needed tailwind.

Headwinds

  • High interest rates continue to put pressure on the industry.
  • Macroeconomic uncertainty continues to impact the industry.
  • Political uncertainty continues to impact the industry.
  • International markets have performed weaker than expected.
  • Company lowers its full year 2024 financial outlook to reflect the current environment.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

+1.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+28.6%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-17.8%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%+9.4%+5.0%
Q4 2025+4.0%+1.4%-10.8%
Q3 2025-6.6%-5.6%-12.5%
Q1 2025+2.8%+4.0%+8.0%
Q4 2024-1.6%-3.9%-2.7%
Q3 2024-6.7%-4.4%-1.7%
Q2 2024+8.7%+13.3%+12.6%
Q1 2024-11.9%-12.8%-10.7%
Q4 2023+6.7%+6.5%+11.4%
Q3 2023-9.2%-6.8%+5.8%
Q2 2023+2.8%+2.3%-11.0%
Q1 2023+0.5%-1.3%-10.7%
Q4 2022+9.8%+7.5%+1.7%
Q3 2022+12.2%+15.8%+28.5%
Q2 2022+10.2%+6.9%+16.6%
Q1 2022+1.6%+0.4%-0.4%
Q4 2021+20.0%+15.5%+7.4%
Q3 2021+4.3%+12.2%+5.4%
Q2 2021-8.6%-6.8%-9.7%
Q1 2021+14.4%+18.9%+21.2%
Q4 2020-17.8%-16.1%-12.5%
Q3 2020+16.8%+13.4%+41.3%
Q2 2020-3.6%-11.1%-3.9%
Q1 2020+28.6%+7.7%+23.8%
Q4 2019-2.9%-4.1%-10.5%
Q3 2019+6.7%+6.2%-3.5%
Q2 2019+4.1%+4.7%-6.7%
Q1 2019-4.9%-6.6%-13.7%
Q4 2018-0.4%+0.1%+1.4%
Q3 2018-2.6%-7.1%+3.5%
Q2 2018+8.8%+7.1%+3.1%
Q1 2018+3.2%+2.0%+2.0%
Q4 2017-12.4%-14.1%-18.4%
Q3 2017+3.1%+6.3%+3.3%
Q2 2017-6.2%-7.2%-9.4%
Q1 2017-5.0%-6.0%-11.2%
Q4 2016-2.3%-2.5%+1.2%
Q3 2016+10.2%+13.4%+16.9%
Q2 2016+4.6%+1.7%+3.9%
Q1 2016-0.0%
Q4 2015+6.7%
Q3 2015-16.1%
Q2 2015+6.7%
Q1 2015-9.0%
Q4 2014-0.9%
Q3 2014+6.1%
Q2 2014-3.7%
Q1 2014+6.2%
Q4 2013-3.7%
Q3 2013-2.4%
Q2 2013-0.9%
Q1 2013+1.6%
Q4 2012-0.4%
Q3 2012+6.5%
Q2 2012-4.7%
Q1 2012+5.0%
Q4 2010+0.5%
Q4 2011+0.5%
Q3 2011+0.3%
Q2 2011-7.0%
Q1 2011-1.0%
Q3 2010+6.4%
Q2 2010+0.6%
Q1 2009-4.3%
Q1 2010+1.4%
Q4 2007+1.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%
Q3 2009-5.3%
Q3 2008-5.3%
Q4 2008+4.7%
Q2 2008+4.7%
Q2 2009+4.7%

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