NYSE$HOG

Harley-Davidson Inc · Q1 2022 earnings

Q1 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Harley-Davidson's first quarter results were delivered, showing revenue growth driven by global motorcycle pricing and growth across Parts & Accessories and Apparel.

Harley-Davidson reported a 5% increase in consolidated revenue, driven by HDMC revenue growth of 6%. The company reaffirms its full-year 2022 outlook. GAAP diluted EPS was $1.45, and the company repurchased $248 million of shares.

  • HDMC revenue growth of 6 percent driven by global motorcycle pricing and growth across Parts & Accessories and Apparel
  • HDMC Operating Income margin of 15.6%, which was down 2.9 points versus last year
  • GAAP diluted EPS of $1.45; repurchased $248 million of shares (or 6.2 million shares) on a discretionary basis in Q1
  • Company reaffirms its full-year 2022 outlook

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.5B

Previous: $1.42B+5.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.45

Previous: $1.68-13.7%
US Wholesale Shipments

35.9K

Previous: 40.2K-10.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$28M

Previous: -$18.8M-48.8%
Free Cash Flow

$195M

Previous: $240M-19.1%
Net Income

$223M

Previous: $259M-14.1%
Operating Income

$289M

Previous: $346M-16.4%
Gross Profit

$600M

Previous: $611M-1.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.39B

Previous: $2.32B-39.9%
Total Assets

$10.9B

Previous: $11.3B-3.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$8.9M

Previous: $8.97M-0.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Harley-Davidson · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.5B

Q1 2022+5.1%vs Q1 2021
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Harley-Davidson · $1.3B total across 5 segments · Q1 2022

  • Motorcycles
    $1.06B+4.2%
  • Parts & Accessories
    $166M+10.7%
  • Apparel
    $51M+2.0%
  • Other HDMC
    $21M+110.0%
  • Licensing
    $6M+0.0%

Forward guidance

For the full year 2022, the Company reaffirms its initial guidance and continues to expect: HDMC revenue growth of 5 to 10%, HDMC operating income margin of 11 to 12%, HDFS operating income to decline by 20 to 25%, and Capital investments of $190 million to $220 million.

Tailwinds

  • HDMC revenue growth of 5 to 10%
  • HDMC operating income margin of 11 to 12%
  • Capital investments of $190 million to $220 million
  • The outlook assumes that logistics and manufacturing moderately improve in the back-half the year
  • Company’s cash allocation priorities are to fund growth through The Hardwire initiatives, pay dividends, and execute discretionary share repurchases.

Headwinds

  • HDFS operating income to decline by 20 to 25%
  • The outlook assumes semi-conductor supply stabilizes
  • Company now expects raw material inflation to continue through the balance of the fiscal year.
  • HDMC Operating Income margin of 15.6%, which was down 2.9 points versus last year
  • Operating income decline of 16 percent is a result of higher supply chain inflation, production challenges due to semi-conductor availability and HDFS losses returning to normalized levels following record lows in 2021.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2022

Historical avgQ1 2022

+1.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+28.6%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-17.8%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%+9.4%+5.0%
Q4 2025+4.0%+1.4%-10.8%
Q3 2025-6.6%-5.6%-12.5%
Q1 2025+2.8%+4.0%+8.0%
Q4 2024-1.6%-3.9%-2.7%
Q3 2024-6.7%-4.4%-1.7%
Q2 2024+8.7%+13.3%+12.6%
Q1 2024-11.9%-12.8%-10.7%
Q4 2023+6.7%+6.5%+11.4%
Q3 2023-9.2%-6.8%+5.8%
Q2 2023+2.8%+2.3%-11.0%
Q1 2023+0.5%-1.3%-10.7%
Q4 2022+9.8%+7.5%+1.7%
Q3 2022+12.2%+15.8%+28.5%
Q2 2022+10.2%+6.9%+16.6%
Q1 2022+1.6%+0.4%-0.4%
Q4 2021+20.0%+15.5%+7.4%
Q3 2021+4.3%+12.2%+5.4%
Q2 2021-8.6%-6.8%-9.7%
Q1 2021+14.4%+18.9%+21.2%
Q4 2020-17.8%-16.1%-12.5%
Q3 2020+16.8%+13.4%+41.3%
Q2 2020-3.6%-11.1%-3.9%
Q1 2020+28.6%+7.7%+23.8%
Q4 2019-2.9%-4.1%-10.5%
Q3 2019+6.7%+6.2%-3.5%
Q2 2019+4.1%+4.7%-6.7%
Q1 2019-4.9%-6.6%-13.7%
Q4 2018-0.4%+0.1%+1.4%
Q3 2018-2.6%-7.1%+3.5%
Q2 2018+8.8%+7.1%+3.1%
Q1 2018+3.2%+2.0%+2.0%
Q4 2017-12.4%-14.1%-18.4%
Q3 2017+3.1%+6.3%+3.3%
Q2 2017-6.2%-7.2%-9.4%
Q1 2017-5.0%-6.0%-11.2%
Q4 2016-2.3%-2.5%+1.2%
Q3 2016+10.2%+13.4%+16.9%
Q2 2016+4.6%+1.7%+3.9%
Q1 2016-0.0%
Q4 2015+6.7%
Q3 2015-16.1%
Q2 2015+6.7%
Q1 2015-9.0%
Q4 2014-0.9%
Q3 2014+6.1%
Q2 2014-3.7%
Q1 2014+6.2%
Q4 2013-3.7%
Q3 2013-2.4%
Q2 2013-0.9%
Q1 2013+1.6%
Q4 2012-0.4%
Q3 2012+6.5%
Q2 2012-4.7%
Q1 2012+5.0%
Q4 2010+0.5%
Q4 2011+0.5%
Q3 2011+0.3%
Q2 2011-7.0%
Q1 2011-1.0%
Q3 2010+6.4%
Q2 2010+0.6%
Q1 2009-4.3%
Q1 2010+1.4%
Q4 2007+1.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%
Q3 2009-5.3%
Q3 2008-5.3%
Q4 2008+4.7%
Q2 2008+4.7%
Q2 2009+4.7%

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