NYSE$HOG

Harley-Davidson Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Harley-Davidson's Q4 2019 earnings increased year-over-year and were in line with expectations.

Harley-Davidson reported Q4 2019 net income of $13.5 million on consolidated revenue of $1.07 billion, with diluted EPS of $0.09. Adjusted diluted EPS, excluding restructuring plan costs and tariff impacts, was $0.20 compared to $0.17 in Q4 2018. The company highlighted advancements in its 'More Roads to Harley-Davidson' plan and expects significant growth in 2021.

  • Delivered fourth quarter GAAP diluted EPS of $0.09, up year-over-year.
  • Advanced More Roads plan, on track for significant 2021 growth.
  • Increased focus on rider commitment; in the U.S., 527,000 riders joined in 2019, up year-over-year.
  • Tempered worldwide year-over-year retail sales rate of decline.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$874M

Previous: $956M-8.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.20

Previous: $0.17+17.6%
US Wholesale Shipments

22.8K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$60.3M

Previous: $93.7M-35.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$40.7M

Previous: -$10.3M-294.5%
Net Income

$13.5M

Previous: $495K+2626.5%
Operating Income

$12.4M

Previous: $3.74M+231.2%
Gross Profit

$279M

Previous: $327M-14.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$834M

Previous: $1.2B-30.7%
Total Assets

$10.5B

Previous: $10.7B-1.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$8.41M

Previous: $6.42M+31.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Harley-Davidson · Revenue · Quarterly

$874M

Q4 2019-8.5%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Harley-Davidson · $1.07B total across 6 segments · Q4 2019

  • Motorcycles
    $666M
  • Financial Services
    $198M
  • Parts & Accessories
    $129M
  • Apparel
    $57.2M
  • Other HDMC
    $12.5M
  • Licensing
    $8.82M

Forward guidance

For the full-year 2020, the company expects Motorcycles segment revenue of approximately $4.53 to $4.66 billion and Motorcycles segment operating margin as a percent of revenue of approximately 7 to 8 percent.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+1.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+28.6%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-17.8%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%+9.4%+5.0%
Q4 2025+4.0%+1.4%-10.8%
Q3 2025-6.6%-5.6%-12.5%
Q1 2025+2.8%+4.0%+8.0%
Q4 2024-1.6%-3.9%-2.7%
Q3 2024-6.7%-4.4%-1.7%
Q2 2024+8.7%+13.3%+12.6%
Q1 2024-11.9%-12.8%-10.7%
Q4 2023+6.7%+6.5%+11.4%
Q3 2023-9.2%-6.8%+5.8%
Q2 2023+2.8%+2.3%-11.0%
Q1 2023+0.5%-1.3%-10.7%
Q4 2022+9.8%+7.5%+1.7%
Q3 2022+12.2%+15.8%+28.5%
Q2 2022+10.2%+6.9%+16.6%
Q1 2022+1.6%+0.4%-0.4%
Q4 2021+20.0%+15.5%+7.4%
Q3 2021+4.3%+12.2%+5.4%
Q2 2021-8.6%-6.8%-9.7%
Q1 2021+14.4%+18.9%+21.2%
Q4 2020-17.8%-16.1%-12.5%
Q3 2020+16.8%+13.4%+41.3%
Q2 2020-3.6%-11.1%-3.9%
Q1 2020+28.6%+7.7%+23.8%
Q4 2019-2.9%-4.1%-10.5%
Q3 2019+6.7%+6.2%-3.5%
Q2 2019+4.1%+4.7%-6.7%
Q1 2019-4.9%-6.6%-13.7%
Q4 2018-0.4%+0.1%+1.4%
Q3 2018-2.6%-7.1%+3.5%
Q2 2018+8.8%+7.1%+3.1%
Q1 2018+3.2%+2.0%+2.0%
Q4 2017-12.4%-14.1%-18.4%
Q3 2017+3.1%+6.3%+3.3%
Q2 2017-6.2%-7.2%-9.4%
Q1 2017-5.0%-6.0%-11.2%
Q4 2016-2.3%-2.5%+1.2%
Q3 2016+10.2%+13.4%+16.9%
Q2 2016+4.6%+1.7%+3.9%
Q1 2016-0.0%
Q4 2015+6.7%
Q3 2015-16.1%
Q2 2015+6.7%
Q1 2015-9.0%
Q4 2014-0.9%
Q3 2014+6.1%
Q2 2014-3.7%
Q1 2014+6.2%
Q4 2013-3.7%
Q3 2013-2.4%
Q2 2013-0.9%
Q1 2013+1.6%
Q4 2012-0.4%
Q3 2012+6.5%
Q2 2012-4.7%
Q1 2012+5.0%
Q4 2010+0.5%
Q4 2011+0.5%
Q3 2011+0.3%
Q2 2011-7.0%
Q1 2011-1.0%
Q3 2010+6.4%
Q2 2010+0.6%
Q1 2009-4.3%
Q1 2010+1.4%
Q4 2007+1.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%
Q3 2009-5.3%
Q3 2008-5.3%
Q4 2008+4.7%
Q2 2008+4.7%
Q2 2009+4.7%

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