NYSE$GNRC

Generac Holdings Inc · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Generac's financial performance was mixed, with residential growth offset by C&I declines and international weakness due to COVID-19.

Generac's first quarter results showed slight net sales growth, driven by residential product strength, but impacted by declines in commercial & industrial products and international sales due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The company's earnings per share decreased slightly, but adjusted EBITDA margin remained strong. They have updated their 2020 outlook to reflect the estimated impact from COVID-19.

  • Net sales increased 1.2% to $475.9 million, while core sales declined approximately 3%.
  • Residential product sales increased 18.3%, driven by home standby generators and PWRcell energy storage systems.
  • Commercial & Industrial product sales decreased 17.7% due to lower domestic shipments and international weakness.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $86.0 million, representing 18.1% of net sales.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$476M

Previous: $470M+1.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.87

Previous: $0.91-4.4%
Gross Margin

36.2%

Previous: 34.5%+4.9%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

18.1%

Previous: 18.5%-2.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$12.9M

Previous: -$15.9M+18.9%
Free Cash Flow

$31.6M

Previous: $29M+9.0%
Net Income

$44.5M

Previous: $44.9M-0.9%
Operating Income

$62.9M

Previous: $71.2M-11.7%
Gross Profit

$172M

Previous: $162M+6.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$307M

Previous: $161M+90.7%
Total Assets

$2.65B

Previous: $2.47B+7.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.57M

Previous: $3.59M+27.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Generac · Revenue · Quarterly

$476M

Q1 2020+1.2%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 16 of 16 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Generac · $430M total across 2 segments · Q1 2020

  • Residential Products
    $258M+18.3%
  • C&I Products
    $172M-17.7%

Forward guidance

The company expects net sales to decline between approximately 5 to 10%. Net income margin is expected to be between 9.5% to 10.5%, with adjusted EBITDA margin between 19.0% to 20.0%.

Tailwinds

  • Demand for residential products has historically proven to be more resilient
  • Considerable opportunities to grow the backup power market specifically in California
  • Opportunities to grow attachment rates of energy storage overall
  • Backup power for residential applications has now become more important than ever with more people working and learning from home
  • Active outage environment during 2020, margins could increase by approximately 50 basis points above baseline guidance.

Headwinds

  • The remainder of the year is expected to be impacted by a significant decline in economic activity across the globe
  • A more pronounced decline expected in the second quarter
  • This downturn is expected to be particularly severe within C&I products, both domestically and internationally
  • Potentially lower consumer spending environment due to COVID-19
  • Guidance assumes a level of power outages in line with the longer-term baseline average

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+2.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.8%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

34 / 64 earnings

Positive

+20.5%

Q3 2013

Best reaction

-27.8%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+18.4%+18.4%+28.1%
Q4 2025+17.9%+23.1%+10.0%
Q3 2025-5.0%-13.9%-20.3%
Q1 2025+1.0%+3.0%+7.9%
Q4 2024+7.6%+3.6%-8.0%
Q3 2024+2.3%+10.1%+14.0%
Q2 2024-6.5%-8.5%+0.6%
Q1 2024-5.4%+0.3%+8.3%
Q4 2023-2.5%-5.3%-9.6%
Q3 2023+18.2%+21.9%+45.5%
Q2 2023-27.8%-27.9%-22.5%
Q1 2023+6.1%+7.5%+11.7%
Q4 2022+3.8%+1.2%-9.6%
Q3 2022-11.6%-14.6%-12.2%
Q2 2022-8.6%-5.5%-16.2%
Q1 2022+11.3%-2.9%+14.8%
Q4 2021+9.4%+6.5%+15.4%
Q3 2021-10.4%-12.4%-19.6%
Q2 2021-4.5%-8.9%-0.4%
Q1 2021+2.5%-1.0%+4.0%
Q4 2020+17.8%+26.3%+18.6%
Q3 2020+4.3%+2.3%+6.6%
Q2 2020+12.8%+17.8%+35.3%
Q1 2020-10.0%-4.1%+7.3%
Q4 2019-0.4%-2.3%-12.5%
Q3 2019-0.9%+1.0%+6.3%
Q2 2019-1.8%-0.3%+7.9%
Q1 2019+9.4%+7.2%+0.6%
Q4 2018+2.9%+3.1%+3.4%
Q3 2018+3.0%+6.7%+12.2%
Q2 2018+3.1%+2.6%+3.2%
Q1 2018-0.1%+4.6%+12.2%
Q4 2017-2.9%-4.8%-3.5%
Q3 2017-1.5%-2.9%-6.5%
Q2 2017+2.5%+4.1%+10.3%
Q1 2017-5.7%-4.0%-6.6%
Q4 2016-5.0%-5.1%-9.7%
Q3 2016+5.1%+4.6%+15.3%
Q2 2016-5.1%+0.8%+6.4%
Q1 2016-7.4%
Q4 2015+17.1%
Q3 2015+19.0%
Q2 2015-17.6%
Q1 2015-14.0%
Q4 2014+4.2%
Q3 2014-6.1%
Q2 2014-4.8%
Q1 2014-6.6%
Q4 2013+13.4%
Q3 2013+20.5%
Q2 2013+5.7%
Q1 2013+11.1%
Q4 2012-5.7%
Q3 2012+20.5%
Q4 2011-1.4%
Q2 2012-0.3%
Q1 2011+17.1%
Q1 2012+17.1%
Q3 2011-2.9%
Q2 2011+7.8%
Q2 2010+7.8%
Q4 2010+3.5%
Q3 2010+3.4%
Q1 2010-4.8%

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