NYSE$GNRC

Generac Holdings Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Generac's Q4 2019 earnings exceeded expectations with strong home standby demand and record performance for the quarter and full year.

Generac reported a 4.9% increase in net sales to $590.9 million in Q4 2019, driven by strong home standby demand. The company's adjusted EBITDA was $129.1 million, or 21.9% of net sales. They also made the first shipments of their new PWRcellTM energy storage system during the quarter.

  • Net sales increased 4.9% to $590.9 million compared to the prior-year quarter.
  • Residential product sales increased 9.7% to $322.5 million year-over-year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $129.1 million, representing 21.9% of net sales.
  • Cash flow from operations was $175.1 million, and free cash flow was $160.3 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$591M

Previous: $563M+4.9%
EPS (adj)

$1.53

Previous: $1.42+7.7%
Gross Margin

37.6%

Previous: 36.3%+3.6%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

21.9%

Previous: 22.4%-2.2%
Cash Flow from Operations

$175M

Previous: $108M+61.8%
Free Cash Flow

$160M

Previous: $87.3M+83.6%
Capital Expenditures

$15.4M

Previous: $22M-30.3%
Net Income

$69.6M

Previous: $75.6M-7.9%
Operating Income

$105M

Previous: $109M-4.0%
Gross Profit

$222M

Previous: $204M+8.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$323M

Previous: $224M+43.8%
Total Assets

$2.67B

Previous: $2.43B+9.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.22M

Previous: $4.65M+12.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Generac · Revenue · Quarterly

$591M

Q4 2019+4.9%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 16 of 16 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Generac · $540M total across 2 segments · Q4 2019

  • Residential Products
    $323M+9.7%
  • C&I Products
    $217M-2.7%

Forward guidance

The Company is initiating guidance for 2020 with net sales expected to increase between 6 to 8% as compared to the prior year on an as-reported basis, and 5 to 7% on a core basis. Net income margin, before deducting for non-controlling interests, is expected to be approximately 11% for the full-year 2020, with corresponding adjusted EBITDA margin expected to be approximately 20.0%.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales expected to increase between 6 to 8% as compared to the prior year on an as-reported basis
  • Net sales expected to increase between 5 to 7% on a core basis
  • Net income margin expected to be approximately 11%
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin expected to be approximately 20.0%
  • Operating and free cash flow generation is expected to be strong

Headwinds

  • Baseline guidance does not assume the benefit of a major power outage event
  • Slower economic growth and geopolitical headwinds caused softness in certain key regions
  • Increased regulatory tariffs
  • Higher operating expense investments
  • Decreased operating leverage on the lower sales volumes

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+2.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.8%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

34 / 64 earnings

Positive

+20.5%

Q3 2013

Best reaction

-27.8%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+18.4%+18.4%+28.1%
Q4 2025+17.9%+23.1%+10.0%
Q3 2025-5.0%-13.9%-20.3%
Q1 2025+1.0%+3.0%+7.9%
Q4 2024+7.6%+3.6%-8.0%
Q3 2024+2.3%+10.1%+14.0%
Q2 2024-6.5%-8.5%+0.6%
Q1 2024-5.4%+0.3%+8.3%
Q4 2023-2.5%-5.3%-9.6%
Q3 2023+18.2%+21.9%+45.5%
Q2 2023-27.8%-27.9%-22.5%
Q1 2023+6.1%+7.5%+11.7%
Q4 2022+3.8%+1.2%-9.6%
Q3 2022-11.6%-14.6%-12.2%
Q2 2022-8.6%-5.5%-16.2%
Q1 2022+11.3%-2.9%+14.8%
Q4 2021+9.4%+6.5%+15.4%
Q3 2021-10.4%-12.4%-19.6%
Q2 2021-4.5%-8.9%-0.4%
Q1 2021+2.5%-1.0%+4.0%
Q4 2020+17.8%+26.3%+18.6%
Q3 2020+4.3%+2.3%+6.6%
Q2 2020+12.8%+17.8%+35.3%
Q1 2020-10.0%-4.1%+7.3%
Q4 2019-0.4%-2.3%-12.5%
Q3 2019-0.9%+1.0%+6.3%
Q2 2019-1.8%-0.3%+7.9%
Q1 2019+9.4%+7.2%+0.6%
Q4 2018+2.9%+3.1%+3.4%
Q3 2018+3.0%+6.7%+12.2%
Q2 2018+3.1%+2.6%+3.2%
Q1 2018-0.1%+4.6%+12.2%
Q4 2017-2.9%-4.8%-3.5%
Q3 2017-1.5%-2.9%-6.5%
Q2 2017+2.5%+4.1%+10.3%
Q1 2017-5.7%-4.0%-6.6%
Q4 2016-5.0%-5.1%-9.7%
Q3 2016+5.1%+4.6%+15.3%
Q2 2016-5.1%+0.8%+6.4%
Q1 2016-7.4%
Q4 2015+17.1%
Q3 2015+19.0%
Q2 2015-17.6%
Q1 2015-14.0%
Q4 2014+4.2%
Q3 2014-6.1%
Q2 2014-4.8%
Q1 2014-6.6%
Q4 2013+13.4%
Q3 2013+20.5%
Q2 2013+5.7%
Q1 2013+11.1%
Q4 2012-5.7%
Q3 2012+20.5%
Q4 2011-1.4%
Q2 2012-0.3%
Q1 2011+17.1%
Q1 2012+17.1%
Q3 2011-2.9%
Q2 2011+7.8%
Q2 2010+7.8%
Q4 2010+3.5%
Q3 2010+3.4%
Q1 2010-4.8%

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