NYSE$ETSY

Etsy Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Etsy achieved record quarterly revenue in Q4 2023, driven by solid GMS flow through, strong growth in Etsy Ads, and good contribution from payments.

Etsy reported its Q4 2023 results, achieving record consolidated revenue of $842.3 million, a 4.3% increase year-over-year. Active buyers reached an all-time high of 92 million, and the company saw improvements in United States active buyer trends and strong international buyer growth. Consolidated GMS was $4.0 billion, a slight decrease of 0.7% year-over-year.

  • Consolidated revenue reached a record $842.3 million, up 4.3% year-over-year.
  • Active buyers reached a new all-time high of 92 million, increasing 3% year-over-year.
  • Consolidated net income was $83.3 million, down 24.0% year-over-year, largely due to restructuring and other exit costs of $27 million.
  • Consolidated GMS was $4.0 billion, down 0.7% year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$842M

Previous: $807M+4.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.77

Previous: $0.77+0.0%
Gross Merchandise Sales

$4.01B

Previous: $4.03B-0.7%
Active Sellers

9.0K

Previous: 7.5K+21.0%
Active Buyers

96.5K

Previous: 95.1K+1.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$12.6M

Previous: $1.89M-766.1%
Net Income

$83.3M

Previous: $110M-24.0%
Operating Income

$115M

Previous: $139M-17.1%
Gross Profit

$587M

Previous: $581M+0.9%
R&D Expense

$104M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$68.5M

Previous: $64.4M+6.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Etsy · Revenue · Quarterly

$842M

Q4 2023+4.3%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Etsy · $636M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Marketplace Revenue
    $461M+3.9%
  • Services Revenue
    $175M+16.2%

Forward guidance

Etsy anticipates GMS to decline in the low-single-digit range year-over-year in Q1 2024, with potential for improvement throughout the quarter. They expect revenue growth to outpace GMS growth, with full-year take-rate in line or ahead of Q1. The company also expects to maintain healthy margins, with consolidated Adjusted EBITDA margins for 2024 at least similar to 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Etsy expects revenue growth to outpace GMS growth.
  • Full year take-rate in line or ahead of the first quarter.
  • Maintain very healthy margins, with consolidated Adjusted EBITDA margins for 2024 at least similar to 2023.
  • Etsy marketplace product and marketing investments kicking in starting in the second quarter.
  • Etsy anticipates GMS to decline in the low-single-digit range year-over-year in Q1 2024, with potential for improvement throughout the quarter.

Headwinds

  • First quarter to be low point in year-over-year growth in GMS and revenue
  • GMS for the first quarter of 2024 is currently estimated to decline in the low-single-digit range on a year-over-year basis.
  • Guidance reflects a slow start to the quarter.
  • If trends fail to improve as expected, decline could become a mid-single-digit decline.
  • Guidance assumes currency exchange rates remain unchanged at current levels.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

20 / 44 earnings

Positive

+27.8%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-32.8%

Q2 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+10.2%+1.4%+7.4%
Q4 2025+9.3%+23.5%+20.0%
Q3 2025-12.5%-18.3%-27.5%
Q1 2025-5.7%-2.3%+20.0%
Q4 2024-10.1%-7.1%-21.3%
Q3 2024+8.3%+10.1%+15.5%
Q2 2024-6.8%-14.1%-14.6%
Q1 2024-13.7%-9.0%-7.6%
Q4 2023-6.9%-5.2%-10.6%
Q3 2023-1.1%+1.3%+31.7%
Q2 2023-15.9%-14.4%-24.3%
Q1 2023-6.7%-6.5%-14.3%
Q4 2022+5.4%-3.4%-14.4%
Q3 2022+9.4%+8.5%+53.7%
Q2 2022+12.5%+11.1%+11.7%
Q1 2022-9.5%-14.1%-19.4%
Q4 2021+27.8%+35.2%+13.6%
Q3 2021+12.7%+8.4%-3.9%
Q2 2021-4.2%-3.9%+15.7%
Q1 2021-16.3%-11.3%-12.9%
Q4 2020+5.3%+14.0%-3.2%
Q3 2020-9.2%-13.3%+10.1%
Q2 2020+0.7%+3.8%-13.7%
Q1 2020+5.2%+10.3%+8.1%
Q4 2019+16.1%+17.9%-22.5%
Q3 2019-18.2%-17.8%-20.3%
Q2 2019-10.9%-17.4%-21.2%
Q1 2019-9.3%-14.5%-4.6%
Q4 2018+21.1%+28.4%+15.6%
Q3 2018+18.7%+23.5%+31.7%
Q2 2018+5.5%+10.9%+14.1%
Q1 2018-4.6%-4.5%+6.4%
Q4 2017+19.8%+21.7%+32.9%
Q3 2017+1.6%+0.8%+13.0%
Q2 2017+8.1%+11.4%+16.3%
Q1 2017-5.0%+5.4%+22.5%
Q4 2016-16.4%-20.3%-18.7%
Q3 2016-13.2%-11.8%-8.1%
Q2 2016+16.7%+16.1%+16.2%
Q1 2016+3.6%
Q4 2015-0.6%
Q3 2015-6.7%
Q2 2015-32.8%
Q1 2015-16.3%
Q4 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013

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