NYSE$ETSY

Etsy Inc · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Etsy demonstrated resilience amidst the global crisis, with GMS and revenue growing year-over-year.

Etsy reported a 32.2% increase in consolidated GMS and a 34.7% increase in revenue year-over-year. The company's marketplace model allowed it to respond rapidly to changing conditions, resulting in solid profitability for the quarter, despite a decline in net income due to foreign exchange losses.

  • Etsy's GMS grew by 32.2% year-over-year, including Reverb's GMS of $168.3 million.
  • Revenue increased by 34.7% year-over-year, driven by growth in both Marketplace and Services revenue.
  • Active buyers increased by 16.4% year-over-year, and active sellers grew by 26.4% year-over-year.
  • Etsy quickly adapted to the COVID-19 pandemic by forming a task force, transitioning to remote work, and supporting its seller community.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$228M

Previous: $169M+34.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.10

Previous: $0.24-58.3%
Gross Merchandise Sales

$1.35B

Previous: $1.02B+32.2%
Active Sellers

2.8K

Previous: 2.2K+26.4%
Active Buyers

47.7K

Previous: 41.0K+16.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$567K

Previous: -$683K+17.0%
Free Cash Flow

$12M

Previous: $30.9M-61.3%
Net Income

$12.5M

Previous: $31.6M-60.3%
Operating Income

$25.4M

Previous: $31.6M-19.8%
Gross Profit

$146M

Previous: $117M+24.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$442M

Previous: $346M+28.0%
Total Assets

$1.52B

Previous: $981M+54.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$13.8M

Previous: $8.08M+70.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Etsy · Revenue · Quarterly

$228M

Q1 2020+34.7%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Etsy · $228M total across 2 segments · Q1 2020

  • Marketplace Revenue
    $156M+22.6%
  • Services Revenue
    $72.1M+71.1%

Forward guidance

Etsy anticipates that the recent surge in demand is likely to ease, but GMS strength in April will support strong top-line growth for the second quarter. They will continue to manage spending while investing in key initiatives for long-term growth.

Tailwinds

  • GMS Year-Over-Year Growth 80-100%
  • GMS ~$2.0B - $2.2B
  • Revenue Year-Over-Year Growth 70-90%
  • Revenue ~$310M - $340M
  • Adjusted EBITDA Margin 23-27%

Headwinds

  • It is quite challenging for us to forecast, even in the near term, given the extreme shifts in demand we have seen over the past eight weeks.
  • recent surge in demand is likely to ease
  • The combination of one time investments to support our sellers and communities totaled approximately $11-13 million, the majority of which will be incurred in the second quarter of 2020.
  • macro dynamics
  • Etsy withdrew its 2020 financial guidance, which was established based upon an assumption of stable macro conditions throughout the year.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

20 / 44 earnings

Positive

+27.8%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-32.8%

Q2 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+10.2%+1.4%+7.4%
Q4 2025+9.3%+23.5%+20.0%
Q3 2025-12.5%-18.3%-27.5%
Q1 2025-5.7%-2.3%+20.0%
Q4 2024-10.1%-7.1%-21.3%
Q3 2024+8.3%+10.1%+15.5%
Q2 2024-6.8%-14.1%-14.6%
Q1 2024-13.7%-9.0%-7.6%
Q4 2023-6.9%-5.2%-10.6%
Q3 2023-1.1%+1.3%+31.7%
Q2 2023-15.9%-14.4%-24.3%
Q1 2023-6.7%-6.5%-14.3%
Q4 2022+5.4%-3.4%-14.4%
Q3 2022+9.4%+8.5%+53.7%
Q2 2022+12.5%+11.1%+11.7%
Q1 2022-9.5%-14.1%-19.4%
Q4 2021+27.8%+35.2%+13.6%
Q3 2021+12.7%+8.4%-3.9%
Q2 2021-4.2%-3.9%+15.7%
Q1 2021-16.3%-11.3%-12.9%
Q4 2020+5.3%+14.0%-3.2%
Q3 2020-9.2%-13.3%+10.1%
Q2 2020+0.7%+3.8%-13.7%
Q1 2020+5.2%+10.3%+8.1%
Q4 2019+16.1%+17.9%-22.5%
Q3 2019-18.2%-17.8%-20.3%
Q2 2019-10.9%-17.4%-21.2%
Q1 2019-9.3%-14.5%-4.6%
Q4 2018+21.1%+28.4%+15.6%
Q3 2018+18.7%+23.5%+31.7%
Q2 2018+5.5%+10.9%+14.1%
Q1 2018-4.6%-4.5%+6.4%
Q4 2017+19.8%+21.7%+32.9%
Q3 2017+1.6%+0.8%+13.0%
Q2 2017+8.1%+11.4%+16.3%
Q1 2017-5.0%+5.4%+22.5%
Q4 2016-16.4%-20.3%-18.7%
Q3 2016-13.2%-11.8%-8.1%
Q2 2016+16.7%+16.1%+16.2%
Q1 2016+3.6%
Q4 2015-0.6%
Q3 2015-6.7%
Q2 2015-32.8%
Q1 2015-16.3%
Q4 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013

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