NYSE$ETSY

Etsy Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Etsy's Q4 2022 performance showed resilience amidst macroeconomic headwinds, maintaining pandemic gains and delivering double-digit revenue growth with excellent profitability.

Etsy, Inc. reported a 12.6% year-over-year increase in consolidated revenue, reaching a record $807.2 million in Q4 2022. Consolidated net income was $109.5 million, with diluted earnings per share of $0.77.

  • Consolidated GMS was $4.0 billion, down 4.0% year-over-year.
  • Consolidated revenue reached a record $807.2 million, up 12.6% year-over-year.
  • Consolidated net income was $109.5 million, down 32.2% year-over-year.
  • Consolidated non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA was a record $227.2 million, up 3.8% year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$807M

Previous: $717M+12.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.77

Previous: $1.11-30.6%
Gross Merchandise Sales

$4.03B

Previous: $4.2B-4.0%
Active Sellers

7.5K

Previous: 7.5K-0.7%
Active Buyers

95.1K

Previous: 96.3K-1.3%
Capital Expenditures

$1.89M

Previous: $5.51M-65.8%
Free Cash Flow

$290M

Previous: $285M+1.7%
Net Income

$110M

Previous: $162M-32.2%
Operating Income

$139M

Previous: $142M-2.0%
Gross Profit

$581M

Previous: $508M+14.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$921M

Previous: $780M+18.1%
Total Assets

$2.63B

Previous: $3.83B-31.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$64.4M

Previous: $49.9M+29.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Etsy · Revenue · Quarterly

$807M

Q4 2022+12.6%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Etsy · $807M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Marketplace Revenue
    $600M+10.9%
  • Services Revenue
    $207M+17.7%

Forward guidance

Etsy’s guidance for the first quarter of 2023 includes GMS of $2.95B to $3.15B and revenue of $600M to $640M, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 26-27%.

Tailwinds

  • Etsy’s “Right to Win” strategy remains robust and relevant.
  • Deep conviction in our ability to compete by strategically differentiating our value proposition.
  • Focus on sellers’ unique items.
  • Best-in-class search and discovery.
  • Human connections and a trusted brand.

Headwinds

  • Guidance assumes currency exchange rates remain unchanged at current levels.
  • Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to the closest corresponding GAAP measure is not available without unreasonable efforts on a forward-looking basis.
  • High variability, complexity, and low visibility with respect to the charges excluded from these non-GAAP measures.
  • Stock-based compensation expense can have unpredictable fluctuations based on unforeseen activity that is out of our control and/or cannot reasonably be predicted.
  • Foreign exchange loss (gain) can have unpredictable fluctuations based on unforeseen activity that is out of our control and/or cannot reasonably be predicted.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

20 / 44 earnings

Positive

+27.8%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-32.8%

Q2 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+10.2%+1.4%+7.4%
Q4 2025+9.3%+23.5%+20.0%
Q3 2025-12.5%-18.3%-27.5%
Q1 2025-5.7%-2.3%+20.0%
Q4 2024-10.1%-7.1%-21.3%
Q3 2024+8.3%+10.1%+15.5%
Q2 2024-6.8%-14.1%-14.6%
Q1 2024-13.7%-9.0%-7.6%
Q4 2023-6.9%-5.2%-10.6%
Q3 2023-1.1%+1.3%+31.7%
Q2 2023-15.9%-14.4%-24.3%
Q1 2023-6.7%-6.5%-14.3%
Q4 2022+5.4%-3.4%-14.4%
Q3 2022+9.4%+8.5%+53.7%
Q2 2022+12.5%+11.1%+11.7%
Q1 2022-9.5%-14.1%-19.4%
Q4 2021+27.8%+35.2%+13.6%
Q3 2021+12.7%+8.4%-3.9%
Q2 2021-4.2%-3.9%+15.7%
Q1 2021-16.3%-11.3%-12.9%
Q4 2020+5.3%+14.0%-3.2%
Q3 2020-9.2%-13.3%+10.1%
Q2 2020+0.7%+3.8%-13.7%
Q1 2020+5.2%+10.3%+8.1%
Q4 2019+16.1%+17.9%-22.5%
Q3 2019-18.2%-17.8%-20.3%
Q2 2019-10.9%-17.4%-21.2%
Q1 2019-9.3%-14.5%-4.6%
Q4 2018+21.1%+28.4%+15.6%
Q3 2018+18.7%+23.5%+31.7%
Q2 2018+5.5%+10.9%+14.1%
Q1 2018-4.6%-4.5%+6.4%
Q4 2017+19.8%+21.7%+32.9%
Q3 2017+1.6%+0.8%+13.0%
Q2 2017+8.1%+11.4%+16.3%
Q1 2017-5.0%+5.4%+22.5%
Q4 2016-16.4%-20.3%-18.7%
Q3 2016-13.2%-11.8%-8.1%
Q2 2016+16.7%+16.1%+16.2%
Q1 2016+3.6%
Q4 2015-0.6%
Q3 2015-6.7%
Q2 2015-32.8%
Q1 2015-16.3%
Q4 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013

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