NYSE$ETSY

Etsy Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Etsy's consolidated results aligned with expectations, demonstrating modest top-line growth and strong profitability in a challenging environment.

Etsy, Inc. reported its third quarter 2023 results, with consolidated revenue up 7.0% year-over-year to $636.3 million and a net income of $87.9 million. The company saw growth in active buyers and made progress in product development and marketing, while navigating a challenging macroeconomic environment.

  • Consolidated GMS increased by 1.2% year-over-year to $3.0 billion.
  • Active buyers grew by 4% year-over-year, reaching a new all-time high of 92 million.
  • Consolidated revenue grew 7.0% year-over-year to $636.3 million.
  • Consolidated net income was $87.9 million, reflecting an impairment charge in the third quarter of the prior year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$636M

Previous: $594M+7.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.64

Previous: $0.58+10.3%
Gross Merchandise Sales

$3.04B

Previous: $3B+1.2%
Active Sellers

8.8K

Previous: 7.4K+19.0%
Active Buyers

97.3K

Previous: 94.1K+3.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$7.74M

Previous: -$8.35M+7.3%
Free Cash Flow

$80.1M

Previous: -$971M+108.2%
Net Income

$87.9M

Previous: -$963M+109.1%
Operating Income

$88.6M

Previous: -$955M+109.3%
Gross Profit

$447M

Previous: $420M+6.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$742M

Previous: $790M-6.1%
Total Assets

$2.45B

Previous: $2.45B-0.0%
R&D Expense

$114M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$70.1M

Previous: $52.9M+32.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Etsy · Revenue · Quarterly

$636M

Q3 2023+7%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Etsy · $636M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Marketplace Revenue
    $461M+3.9%
  • Services Revenue
    $175M+16.2%

Forward guidance

Etsy anticipates that GMS for Q4 2023 will decline in the low-single-digit range year-over-year, although this could shift to a mid-single-digit decline if trends worsen. The estimated take rate for Q4 2023 is approximately 20.8%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to be between 26-27%.

Tailwinds

  • Etsy is focused on areas that will positively impact the company in the months and years ahead.
  • Etsy is committed to delivering profitable growth for sellers, shareholders, and stakeholders.
  • Core Etsy marketplace margin implied in guidance approaches the long-term target of 30%.
  • Consolidated EBITDA dollars are expected to be up sequentially.
  • Etsy expects to finish the year just a bit shy of being a 'rule of 40' company for the Etsy marketplace.

Headwinds

  • The volatile macro climate will make it challenging for Etsy to grow this quarter.
  • Seasonally higher marketing spend is expected.
  • A more competitive advertising landscape is anticipated.
  • Guidance assumes currency exchange rates remain unchanged at current levels.
  • There's no doubt that this is an incredibly challenging environment for spending on consumer discretionary items.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

20 / 44 earnings

Positive

+27.8%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-32.8%

Q2 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+10.2%+1.4%+7.4%
Q4 2025+9.3%+23.5%+20.0%
Q3 2025-12.5%-18.3%-27.5%
Q1 2025-5.7%-2.3%+20.0%
Q4 2024-10.1%-7.1%-21.3%
Q3 2024+8.3%+10.1%+15.5%
Q2 2024-6.8%-14.1%-14.6%
Q1 2024-13.7%-9.0%-7.6%
Q4 2023-6.9%-5.2%-10.6%
Q3 2023-1.1%+1.3%+31.7%
Q2 2023-15.9%-14.4%-24.3%
Q1 2023-6.7%-6.5%-14.3%
Q4 2022+5.4%-3.4%-14.4%
Q3 2022+9.4%+8.5%+53.7%
Q2 2022+12.5%+11.1%+11.7%
Q1 2022-9.5%-14.1%-19.4%
Q4 2021+27.8%+35.2%+13.6%
Q3 2021+12.7%+8.4%-3.9%
Q2 2021-4.2%-3.9%+15.7%
Q1 2021-16.3%-11.3%-12.9%
Q4 2020+5.3%+14.0%-3.2%
Q3 2020-9.2%-13.3%+10.1%
Q2 2020+0.7%+3.8%-13.7%
Q1 2020+5.2%+10.3%+8.1%
Q4 2019+16.1%+17.9%-22.5%
Q3 2019-18.2%-17.8%-20.3%
Q2 2019-10.9%-17.4%-21.2%
Q1 2019-9.3%-14.5%-4.6%
Q4 2018+21.1%+28.4%+15.6%
Q3 2018+18.7%+23.5%+31.7%
Q2 2018+5.5%+10.9%+14.1%
Q1 2018-4.6%-4.5%+6.4%
Q4 2017+19.8%+21.7%+32.9%
Q3 2017+1.6%+0.8%+13.0%
Q2 2017+8.1%+11.4%+16.3%
Q1 2017-5.0%+5.4%+22.5%
Q4 2016-16.4%-20.3%-18.7%
Q3 2016-13.2%-11.8%-8.1%
Q2 2016+16.7%+16.1%+16.2%
Q1 2016+3.6%
Q4 2015-0.6%
Q3 2015-6.7%
Q2 2015-32.8%
Q1 2015-16.3%
Q4 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013

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