NYSE$ETSY

Etsy Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Etsy achieved exceptional growth in GMS and revenue, driven by product enhancements and marketing investments.

Etsy reported a transformative year, with significant growth in GMS and revenue. The company focused on improving buyer engagement and retention, expanding its global reach, and investing in technology.

  • Consolidated GMS grew by 117.7% year-over-year.
  • Revenue increased by 128.7% year-over-year.
  • Net income rose by 374.7% year-over-year.
  • Active buyers increased by 76.7% year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$617M

Previous: $270M+128.7%
EPS (adj)

$1.08

Previous: $0.25+332.0%
Gross Merchandise Sales

$3.61B

Previous: $1.66B+117.7%
Active Sellers

4.4K

Previous: 2.7K+61.7%
Active Buyers

81.9K

Previous: 46.4K+76.7%
Capital Expenditures

$1.06M

Previous: $1.64M-35.5%
Free Cash Flow

$243M

Previous: $76.9M+215.3%
Net Income

$149M

Previous: $31.3M+374.7%
Operating Income

$161M

Previous: $25M+544.4%
Gross Profit

$467M

Previous: $179M+160.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.24B

Previous: $443M+180.6%
Total Assets

$2.4B

Previous: $1.54B+55.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$17.5M

Previous: $13.3M+30.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Etsy · Revenue · Quarterly

$617M

Q4 2020+128.7%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Etsy · $617M total across 2 segments · Q4 2020

  • Marketplace Revenue
    $474M+149.7%
  • Services Revenue
    $144M+79.0%

Forward guidance

Etsy anticipates continued growth, focusing on buyer loyalty and seller opportunities, with investments in personalized experiences. While growth is expected to decelerate, Etsy aims to outperform e-commerce and gain market share.

Tailwinds

  • Etsy has earned the right to be top of mind for global consumers.
  • Building loyalty and trust with buyers through delightful shopping experiences.
  • Focus on frequency - to be a global brand buyers come back to more than ever.
  • Giving sellers more opportunities to grow.
  • Etsy’s growth in 2021 is likely to decelerate off of last year’s high levels along with the rest of e-commerce

Headwinds

  • Continued uncertainty of future macroeconomic conditions as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Etsy will currently not issue guidance for the full year 2021, and will continue providing guidance on a quarterly basis until otherwise stated.
  • Etsy is not able, at this time, to provide GAAP targets for net income or net income margin for 2021
  • unreasonable effort of estimating certain items that are excluded from non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA, including, for example, provision or benefit for income taxes and foreign exchange gain or loss, the effect of which may be significant.
  • Deceleration of growth

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

20 / 44 earnings

Positive

+27.8%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-32.8%

Q2 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+10.2%+1.4%+7.4%
Q4 2025+9.3%+23.5%+20.0%
Q3 2025-12.5%-18.3%-27.5%
Q1 2025-5.7%-2.3%+20.0%
Q4 2024-10.1%-7.1%-21.3%
Q3 2024+8.3%+10.1%+15.5%
Q2 2024-6.8%-14.1%-14.6%
Q1 2024-13.7%-9.0%-7.6%
Q4 2023-6.9%-5.2%-10.6%
Q3 2023-1.1%+1.3%+31.7%
Q2 2023-15.9%-14.4%-24.3%
Q1 2023-6.7%-6.5%-14.3%
Q4 2022+5.4%-3.4%-14.4%
Q3 2022+9.4%+8.5%+53.7%
Q2 2022+12.5%+11.1%+11.7%
Q1 2022-9.5%-14.1%-19.4%
Q4 2021+27.8%+35.2%+13.6%
Q3 2021+12.7%+8.4%-3.9%
Q2 2021-4.2%-3.9%+15.7%
Q1 2021-16.3%-11.3%-12.9%
Q4 2020+5.3%+14.0%-3.2%
Q3 2020-9.2%-13.3%+10.1%
Q2 2020+0.7%+3.8%-13.7%
Q1 2020+5.2%+10.3%+8.1%
Q4 2019+16.1%+17.9%-22.5%
Q3 2019-18.2%-17.8%-20.3%
Q2 2019-10.9%-17.4%-21.2%
Q1 2019-9.3%-14.5%-4.6%
Q4 2018+21.1%+28.4%+15.6%
Q3 2018+18.7%+23.5%+31.7%
Q2 2018+5.5%+10.9%+14.1%
Q1 2018-4.6%-4.5%+6.4%
Q4 2017+19.8%+21.7%+32.9%
Q3 2017+1.6%+0.8%+13.0%
Q2 2017+8.1%+11.4%+16.3%
Q1 2017-5.0%+5.4%+22.5%
Q4 2016-16.4%-20.3%-18.7%
Q3 2016-13.2%-11.8%-8.1%
Q2 2016+16.7%+16.1%+16.2%
Q1 2016+3.6%
Q4 2015-0.6%
Q3 2015-6.7%
Q2 2015-32.8%
Q1 2015-16.3%
Q4 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013

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