NYSE$ETSY

Etsy Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Etsy's GMS and revenue experienced substantial growth, driven by focused execution and strong brand engagement.

Etsy, Inc. reported a strong third quarter in 2020, with significant growth in consolidated GMS and revenue, increasing by 119% and 128% respectively. The company's performance was driven by increased buyer retention and frequency, as well as successful investments in product and marketing.

  • Consolidated GMS increased by 119% year-over-year.
  • Revenue grew by 128% compared to the previous year.
  • Active buyers increased by 55.4% year-over-year.
  • Net income saw a substantial increase of 520% year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$451M

Previous: $198M+128.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.79

Previous: $0.12+558.3%
Gross Merchandise Sales

$2.63B

Previous: $1.2B+119.4%
Active Sellers

3.7K

Previous: 2.6K+42.0%
Active Buyers

69.6K

Previous: 44.8K+55.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$388K

Previous: -$5.89M+93.4%
Free Cash Flow

$91.4M

Previous: $8.91M+925.3%
Net Income

$91.8M

Previous: $14.8M+520.0%
Operating Income

$118M

Previous: $14.2M+730.3%
Gross Profit

$331M

Previous: $129M+156.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.14B

Previous: $672M+70.4%
Total Assets

$2.21B

Previous: $1.5B+47.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$17.1M

Previous: $12.1M+41.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Etsy · Revenue · Quarterly

$451M

Q3 2020+128.1%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Etsy · $451M total across 2 segments · Q3 2020

  • Marketplace Revenue
    $342M+141.2%
  • Services Revenue
    $110M+95.1%

Forward guidance

Etsy provided guidance for the fourth quarter of 2020, expecting continued growth in GMS and revenue.

Tailwinds

  • GMS year-over-year growth is expected to be between 65% and 85%.
  • Revenue year-over-year growth is projected to be between 70% and 90%.
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin is anticipated to be between 24% and 27%.
  • Investments in technology, marketing, product, and people are expected to yield near and long-term benefits.
  • October GMS growth trends for both Etsy and Reverb have been similar to September.

Headwinds

  • 2021 is extremely hard to predict
  • The company will be lapping enormous 2020 growth.
  • Guidance assumes the midpoint of the revenue guidance.
  • Uncertain impacts that the COVID-19 pandemic may have on our business
  • Changes in overall level of consumer spending and volatility in the global economy

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

20 / 44 earnings

Positive

+27.8%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-32.8%

Q2 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+10.2%+1.4%+7.4%
Q4 2025+9.3%+23.5%+20.0%
Q3 2025-12.5%-18.3%-27.5%
Q1 2025-5.7%-2.3%+20.0%
Q4 2024-10.1%-7.1%-21.3%
Q3 2024+8.3%+10.1%+15.5%
Q2 2024-6.8%-14.1%-14.6%
Q1 2024-13.7%-9.0%-7.6%
Q4 2023-6.9%-5.2%-10.6%
Q3 2023-1.1%+1.3%+31.7%
Q2 2023-15.9%-14.4%-24.3%
Q1 2023-6.7%-6.5%-14.3%
Q4 2022+5.4%-3.4%-14.4%
Q3 2022+9.4%+8.5%+53.7%
Q2 2022+12.5%+11.1%+11.7%
Q1 2022-9.5%-14.1%-19.4%
Q4 2021+27.8%+35.2%+13.6%
Q3 2021+12.7%+8.4%-3.9%
Q2 2021-4.2%-3.9%+15.7%
Q1 2021-16.3%-11.3%-12.9%
Q4 2020+5.3%+14.0%-3.2%
Q3 2020-9.2%-13.3%+10.1%
Q2 2020+0.7%+3.8%-13.7%
Q1 2020+5.2%+10.3%+8.1%
Q4 2019+16.1%+17.9%-22.5%
Q3 2019-18.2%-17.8%-20.3%
Q2 2019-10.9%-17.4%-21.2%
Q1 2019-9.3%-14.5%-4.6%
Q4 2018+21.1%+28.4%+15.6%
Q3 2018+18.7%+23.5%+31.7%
Q2 2018+5.5%+10.9%+14.1%
Q1 2018-4.6%-4.5%+6.4%
Q4 2017+19.8%+21.7%+32.9%
Q3 2017+1.6%+0.8%+13.0%
Q2 2017+8.1%+11.4%+16.3%
Q1 2017-5.0%+5.4%+22.5%
Q4 2016-16.4%-20.3%-18.7%
Q3 2016-13.2%-11.8%-8.1%
Q2 2016+16.7%+16.1%+16.2%
Q1 2016+3.6%
Q4 2015-0.6%
Q3 2015-6.7%
Q2 2015-32.8%
Q1 2015-16.3%
Q4 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013

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