NYSE$AOS

A O Smith Corp · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

A. O. Smith's Q4 2024 earnings declined due to lower sales in both North America and Rest of World segments.

A. O. Smith's Q4 2024 sales decreased by 8% due to lower sales in China and North America. Net earnings decreased by 20% and adjusted earnings decreased by 14%. The company's 2025 outlook projects flat to up 2% consolidated sales compared to 2024.

  • Sales decreased by 8% primarily driven by lower sales in China and North America.
  • Net earnings decreased by 20% due to lower sales.
  • Adjusted earnings decreased by 14%.
  • Pureit acquisition had a minimal impact on 2024 results.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$912M

Previous: $988M-7.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.85

Previous: $0.97-12.4%
NA Segment Margin

21.4%

No prior period
RoW Segment Margin

3.3%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$30.6M

Previous: -$29.9M-2.3%
Net Income

$110M

Previous: $137M-20.1%
Operating Income

$145M

Previous: $177M-18.0%
Gross Profit

$338M

Previous: $370M-8.6%

Revenue & EPS history

A O Smith · Revenue · Quarterly

$912M

Q4 2024-7.7%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

A O Smith · $943M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • North America
    $710M+8.7%
  • Rest of World
    $233M+1.2%

Forward guidance

Our outlook for 2025 projects our consolidated sales to be flat to up 2% compared to 2024. We expect our full-year EPS to be between $3.60 and $3.90, slightly higher than 2024 at the mid-point.

Tailwinds

  • Consolidated sales to be flat to up 2% compared to 2024.
  • Full-year EPS to be between $3.60 and $3.90, slightly higher than 2024 at the mid-point.
  • Water heater industry unit volumes to be flat year-over-year with less first half versus second half volatility compared to 2024.
  • Expect continued double-digits sales growth in India.
  • Strong balance sheet and free cash flow continue to provide us the liquidity to focus on our capital allocation priorities of organic growth, acquisitions, dividends and share repurchases

Headwinds

  • Expect a single-digit sales decline in China as consumer demand remains low.
  • Guidance excludes the potential impacts from future acquisitions.
  • Further softening in U.S. residential and commercial water heater demand.
  • Negative impacts to the Company, particularly the demand for its products, resulting from global inflationary pressures or a potential recession in one or more of the markets in which the Company participates.
  • The Company’s ability to continue to obtain commodities, components, parts and accessories on a timely basis through its supply chain and at expected costs.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+1.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

40 / 68 earnings

Positive

+17.5%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-9.7%

Q2 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.9%-7.5%-10.9%
Q4 2025+5.9%+9.9%+12.2%
Q3 2025-2.6%-3.8%-3.3%
Q1 2025+3.5%+5.7%-0.1%
Q4 2024-2.8%-5.1%-4.0%
Q3 2024-1.7%-2.2%-7.2%
Q2 2024-9.1%-4.9%-8.6%
Q1 2024-4.4%-4.8%-2.6%
Q4 2023-4.9%-4.1%+1.5%
Q3 2023+4.0%+7.0%+16.6%
Q2 2023-3.8%-3.3%-7.1%
Q1 2023+1.2%+3.4%-1.2%
Q4 2022+17.5%+15.9%+13.6%
Q3 2022+4.7%+5.1%+19.1%
Q2 2022+4.5%-0.1%-3.5%
Q1 2022-7.1%-6.0%-2.7%
Q4 2021+1.0%+1.1%-7.1%
Q3 2021+13.7%+22.0%+26.1%
Q2 2021+1.3%+3.2%+4.3%
Q1 2021+1.8%+7.5%+6.8%
Q4 2020+2.1%+7.9%+11.6%
Q3 2020+0.4%+3.6%+10.9%
Q2 2020-9.7%-10.0%-7.4%
Q1 2020+4.0%+6.7%+20.5%
Q4 2019+1.1%-2.6%-8.4%
Q3 2019-1.9%-2.1%-5.1%
Q2 2019+3.7%-0.2%+5.3%
Q1 2019-5.9%-3.9%-26.2%
Q4 2018-0.8%-0.1%+7.7%
Q3 2018+7.7%+13.7%+10.8%
Q2 2018-0.3%-1.6%-2.0%
Q1 2018+0.9%-1.2%+3.8%
Q4 2017-0.1%-3.3%-7.1%
Q3 2017-3.6%-4.4%-2.2%
Q2 2017-2.0%-2.7%-2.0%
Q1 2017+1.7%+0.5%+2.1%
Q4 2016+1.9%+1.9%+3.6%
Q3 2016-3.9%-3.4%+5.3%
Q2 2016+5.6%+4.7%+7.6%
Q1 2016-3.4%
Q4 2015+2.8%
Q3 2015+2.8%
Q2 2015+5.5%
Q1 2015+0.6%
Q4 2014+6.3%
Q3 2014+3.8%
Q2 2014+6.2%
Q1 2014+1.0%
Q4 2013-2.8%
Q3 2013+9.9%
Q2 2013+2.3%
Q1 2013+6.9%
Q4 2012+3.7%
Q3 2012+0.5%
Q2 2012+4.6%
Q1 2012+2.4%
Q4 2011-0.7%
Q3 2011-4.7%
Q2 2011-2.2%
Q1 2011-0.7%
Q1 2010-0.7%
Q4 2010+2.2%
Q4 2008+2.2%
Q3 2010+4.4%
Q3 2009+4.4%
Q2 2009+0.0%
Q4 2009+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%

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