NYSE$AOS

A O Smith Corp · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

A. O. Smith reported a net loss but achieved record sales for the year, driven by pricing actions and boiler demand, offset by U.S. water heater destocking.

A. O. Smith reported a net loss for Q4 2022, with a significant decrease in net earnings compared to Q4 2021. However, the company achieved record sales for the full year 2022. The Q4 results were impacted by a non-cash pension settlement expense. The company introduces 2023 guidance with sales flat to 2022 and EPS between $3.15 and $3.45.

  • Net sales decreased by 6% year-over-year to $936.1 million.
  • Net loss was $(120.1) million, a decrease of 186% year-over-year.
  • Adjusted earnings decreased by 4% year-over-year to $131.6 million.
  • Adjusted EPS increased by 1% year-over-year to $0.86.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$936M

Previous: $996M-6.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.86

Previous: $0.87-1.1%
Free Cash Flow

$321M

No prior period
Net Income

-$120M

Previous: $140M-186.0%
Operating Income

-$243M

Previous: $197M-223.1%
Gross Profit

$349M

Previous: $361M-3.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$391M

Previous: $443M-11.8%
Total Assets

$3.33B

Previous: $3.47B-4.1%

Revenue & EPS history

A O Smith · Revenue · Quarterly

$936M

Q4 2022-6%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

A O Smith · $942M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • North America
    $692M-3.2%
  • Rest of World
    $250M-13.3%

Forward guidance

The company projects sales to be flat year-over-year, +/- 3%. Anticipates improved profitability as input costs moderate and expects full year EPS to be between $3.15 and $3.45, a 5% year-over-year increase at the mid-point.

Tailwinds

  • Inventory adjustments in the wholesale residential market largely behind us.
  • Mindful of headwinds in new home construction, which remains in a deficit position.
  • Lifting of certain COVID-19-related restrictions is a positive step to an improved economic environment in China.
  • Strong balance sheet and free cash flow.
  • Focus on capital allocation priorities of organic growth, dividends, acquisitions, and share repurchases.

Headwinds

  • Headwinds in new home construction.
  • Impacts from COVID-19-related restrictions on consumer demand in China.
  • Potential impacts from future acquisitions are excluded.
  • Assumes the COVID-19-related impacts in China improve in the second half of the year and do not significantly impact our operations or our employees, customers or suppliers.
  • Softening in U.S. residential water heater demand.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+1.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

40 / 68 earnings

Positive

+17.5%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-9.7%

Q2 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.9%-7.5%-10.9%
Q4 2025+5.9%+9.9%+12.2%
Q3 2025-2.6%-3.8%-3.3%
Q1 2025+3.5%+5.7%-0.1%
Q4 2024-2.8%-5.1%-4.0%
Q3 2024-1.7%-2.2%-7.2%
Q2 2024-9.1%-4.9%-8.6%
Q1 2024-4.4%-4.8%-2.6%
Q4 2023-4.9%-4.1%+1.5%
Q3 2023+4.0%+7.0%+16.6%
Q2 2023-3.8%-3.3%-7.1%
Q1 2023+1.2%+3.4%-1.2%
Q4 2022+17.5%+15.9%+13.6%
Q3 2022+4.7%+5.1%+19.1%
Q2 2022+4.5%-0.1%-3.5%
Q1 2022-7.1%-6.0%-2.7%
Q4 2021+1.0%+1.1%-7.1%
Q3 2021+13.7%+22.0%+26.1%
Q2 2021+1.3%+3.2%+4.3%
Q1 2021+1.8%+7.5%+6.8%
Q4 2020+2.1%+7.9%+11.6%
Q3 2020+0.4%+3.6%+10.9%
Q2 2020-9.7%-10.0%-7.4%
Q1 2020+4.0%+6.7%+20.5%
Q4 2019+1.1%-2.6%-8.4%
Q3 2019-1.9%-2.1%-5.1%
Q2 2019+3.7%-0.2%+5.3%
Q1 2019-5.9%-3.9%-26.2%
Q4 2018-0.8%-0.1%+7.7%
Q3 2018+7.7%+13.7%+10.8%
Q2 2018-0.3%-1.6%-2.0%
Q1 2018+0.9%-1.2%+3.8%
Q4 2017-0.1%-3.3%-7.1%
Q3 2017-3.6%-4.4%-2.2%
Q2 2017-2.0%-2.7%-2.0%
Q1 2017+1.7%+0.5%+2.1%
Q4 2016+1.9%+1.9%+3.6%
Q3 2016-3.9%-3.4%+5.3%
Q2 2016+5.6%+4.7%+7.6%
Q1 2016-3.4%
Q4 2015+2.8%
Q3 2015+2.8%
Q2 2015+5.5%
Q1 2015+0.6%
Q4 2014+6.3%
Q3 2014+3.8%
Q2 2014+6.2%
Q1 2014+1.0%
Q4 2013-2.8%
Q3 2013+9.9%
Q2 2013+2.3%
Q1 2013+6.9%
Q4 2012+3.7%
Q3 2012+0.5%
Q2 2012+4.6%
Q1 2012+2.4%
Q4 2011-0.7%
Q3 2011-4.7%
Q2 2011-2.2%
Q1 2011-0.7%
Q1 2010-0.7%
Q4 2010+2.2%
Q4 2008+2.2%
Q3 2010+4.4%
Q3 2009+4.4%
Q2 2009+0.0%
Q4 2009+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%

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