NYSE$ALSN

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Allison's Q4 2019 earnings decreased due to lower demand in the Global Off-Highway and Service Parts, Support Equipment & Other end markets, partially offset by higher demand in the North America On-Highway end market.

Allison Transmission reported Q4 2019 net sales of $617 million, a 5% decrease compared to the same period in 2018. Net income was $107 million, down from $147 million in 2018, and adjusted EBITDA was $216 million, compared to $261 million in the previous year. Adjusted free cash flow was $121 million, a decrease from $184 million in 2018.

  • Net sales decreased by 5% year-over-year, primarily due to lower demand in the Global Off-Highway and Service Parts, Support Equipment & Other end markets.
  • Net income decreased from $147 million to $107 million compared to the same period in 2018.
  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased from $261 million to $216 million year-over-year.
  • The company settled $62 million of share repurchases, resulting in $393 million of total share repurchases for the year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$617M

Previous: $647M-4.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.85

Previous: $1.17-27.4%
Adjusted EBITDA

$216M

Previous: $261M-17.2%
Capital Expenditures

$81M

Previous: $48M+68.8%
Free Cash Flow

$121M

Previous: $184M-34.2%
Net Income

$107M

Previous: $147M-27.2%
Operating Income

$165M

Previous: $207M-20.3%
Gross Profit

$298M

Previous: $338M-11.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$192M

Previous: $231M-16.9%
Total Assets

$4.45B

Previous: $4.24B+5.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$3M

Previous: $4M-25.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Allison · Revenue · Quarterly

$617M

Q4 2019-4.6%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Allison · $598M total across 4 segments · Q4 2019

  • North America On-Highway
    $330M+8.9%
  • Service Parts & Other
    $135M-9.4%
  • Outside North America On-Highway
    $91M-4.2%
  • Defense
    $42M+16.7%

Forward guidance

Allison expects 2020 net sales to be in the range of $2,375 to $2,475 million, Net Income in the range of $425 to $475 million, Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $855 to $915 million, Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities in the range of $600 to $640 million, Adjusted Free Cash Flow in the range of $430 to $480 million and cash income taxes in the range of $60 to $70 million.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales are expected to be between $2,375 and $2,475 million.
  • Net income is projected to be in the range of $425 to $475 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be between $855 and $915 million.
  • Net cash provided by operating activities is forecasted to be in the range of $600 to $640 million.
  • Adjusted free cash flow is expected to be between $430 and $480 million.

Headwinds

  • 2020 net sales guidance reflects lower demand in the Global On-Highway and Global Off-Highway end markets
  • First quarter net sales are expected to be down from the same period in 2019.
  • Lower demand is expected in the Global On-Highway end markets.
  • Cash income taxes are expected to be in the range of $60 to $70 million.
  • Unspecified risks related to substantial indebtedness.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.7%

Avg return

30 days after

61%

37 / 61 earnings

Positive

+11.9%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%-6.2%-9.5%
Q4 2025+4.8%+7.2%-0.4%
Q3 2025+2.4%-2.7%+8.7%
Q1 2025+4.1%+4.1%+10.8%
Q4 2024-12.5%-8.4%-15.8%
Q3 2024+8.2%+7.4%+18.8%
Q2 2024+6.2%+6.8%+9.6%
Q1 2024-6.9%-8.1%-5.3%
Q4 2023+11.6%+12.3%+19.4%
Q3 2023-10.8%-11.2%-5.7%
Q2 2023+1.7%+3.2%+1.4%
Q1 2023+7.4%+5.8%+6.9%
Q4 2022+10.3%+9.2%-8.0%
Q3 2022+5.8%+8.3%+12.9%
Q2 2022-8.4%-7.4%-11.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%+4.3%+8.7%
Q4 2021+1.4%+0.5%-2.4%
Q3 2021+2.8%+2.2%+9.3%
Q2 2021+1.0%+1.3%-4.1%
Q1 2021-3.9%-4.1%-2.8%
Q4 2020-9.6%-11.5%-0.2%
Q3 2020-6.8%-1.3%+10.9%
Q2 2020-1.9%-1.7%-4.7%
Q1 2020-0.5%+5.0%+9.5%
Q4 2019-1.0%-1.0%-34.8%
Q3 2019-7.2%-5.3%+3.0%
Q2 2019-1.3%-6.5%-5.2%
Q1 2019+1.3%-2.6%-11.4%
Q4 2018+2.4%-3.0%-10.5%
Q3 2018+0.6%+1.6%+9.1%
Q2 2018+11.9%+10.7%+18.1%
Q1 2018+2.7%+4.8%+7.7%
Q4 2017-3.2%-5.8%-6.5%
Q3 2017-1.0%+1.7%-6.4%
Q2 2017+0.4%+1.1%-8.3%
Q1 2017+4.8%+4.3%+4.4%
Q4 2016+5.4%+6.2%+2.0%
Q3 2016+3.3%+6.6%+18.2%
Q2 2016-4.8%-5.3%-7.8%
Q1 2016+0.9%
Q4 2015-3.3%
Q3 2015-1.1%
Q2 2015+2.9%
Q1 2015-3.3%
Q4 2014-2.5%
Q3 2014+7.3%
Q2 2014-0.3%
Q1 2014+6.6%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013+0.5%
Q1 2013+0.5%
Q4 2010+0.3%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q4 2012-0.8%
Q3 2011+6.1%
Q3 2012+3.8%
Q2 2011-3.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011+2.6%
Q1 2012+3.0%
Q3 2010
Q2 2010

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