NYSE$ALSN
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc · Q4 2019 earnings
Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Allison's Q4 2019 earnings decreased due to lower demand in the Global Off-Highway and Service Parts, Support Equipment & Other end markets, partially offset by higher demand in the North America On-Highway end market.
Allison Transmission reported Q4 2019 net sales of $617 million, a 5% decrease compared to the same period in 2018. Net income was $107 million, down from $147 million in 2018, and adjusted EBITDA was $216 million, compared to $261 million in the previous year. Adjusted free cash flow was $121 million, a decrease from $184 million in 2018.
- Net sales decreased by 5% year-over-year, primarily due to lower demand in the Global Off-Highway and Service Parts, Support Equipment & Other end markets.
- Net income decreased from $147 million to $107 million compared to the same period in 2018.
- Adjusted EBITDA decreased from $261 million to $216 million year-over-year.
- The company settled $62 million of share repurchases, resulting in $393 million of total share repurchases for the year.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Allison · Revenue · Quarterly
$617M
Revenue by segment
Allison · $598M total across 4 segments · Q4 2019
- North America On-Highway$330M+8.9%55.2%
- Service Parts & Other$135M-9.4%22.6%
- Outside North America On-Highway$91M-4.2%15.2%
- Defense$42M+16.7%7.0%
Forward guidance
Allison expects 2020 net sales to be in the range of $2,375 to $2,475 million, Net Income in the range of $425 to $475 million, Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $855 to $915 million, Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities in the range of $600 to $640 million, Adjusted Free Cash Flow in the range of $430 to $480 million and cash income taxes in the range of $60 to $70 million.
Tailwinds
- Net sales are expected to be between $2,375 and $2,475 million.
- Net income is projected to be in the range of $425 to $475 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be between $855 and $915 million.
- Net cash provided by operating activities is forecasted to be in the range of $600 to $640 million.
- Adjusted free cash flow is expected to be between $430 and $480 million.
Headwinds
- 2020 net sales guidance reflects lower demand in the Global On-Highway and Global Off-Highway end markets
- First quarter net sales are expected to be down from the same period in 2019.
- Lower demand is expected in the Global On-Highway end markets.
- Cash income taxes are expected to be in the range of $60 to $70 million.
- Unspecified risks related to substantial indebtedness.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019
+0.7%
Avg return
Earnings day
+0.6%
Avg return
5 days after
+0.7%
Avg return
30 days after
61%
37 / 61 earnings
Positive
+11.9%
Q2 2018
Best reaction
-12.5%
Q4 2024
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -3.7% | -6.2% | -9.5% | |
| Q4 2025 | +4.8% | +7.2% | -0.4% | |
| Q3 2025 | +2.4% | -2.7% | +8.7% | |
| Q1 2025 | +4.1% | +4.1% | +10.8% | |
| Q4 2024 | -12.5% | -8.4% | -15.8% | |
| Q3 2024 | +8.2% | +7.4% | +18.8% | |
| Q2 2024 | +6.2% | +6.8% | +9.6% | |
| Q1 2024 | -6.9% | -8.1% | -5.3% | |
| Q4 2023 | +11.6% | +12.3% | +19.4% | |
| Q3 2023 | -10.8% | -11.2% | -5.7% | |
| Q2 2023 | +1.7% | +3.2% | +1.4% | |
| Q1 2023 | +7.4% | +5.8% | +6.9% | |
| Q4 2022 | +10.3% | +9.2% | -8.0% | |
| Q3 2022 | +5.8% | +8.3% | +12.9% | |
| Q2 2022 | -8.4% | -7.4% | -11.7% | |
| Q1 2022 | +4.6% | +4.3% | +8.7% | |
| Q4 2021 | +1.4% | +0.5% | -2.4% | |
| Q3 2021 | +2.8% | +2.2% | +9.3% | |
| Q2 2021 | +1.0% | +1.3% | -4.1% | |
| Q1 2021 | -3.9% | -4.1% | -2.8% | |
| Q4 2020 | -9.6% | -11.5% | -0.2% | |
| Q3 2020 | -6.8% | -1.3% | +10.9% | |
| Q2 2020 | -1.9% | -1.7% | -4.7% | |
| Q1 2020 | -0.5% | +5.0% | +9.5% | |
| Q4 2019 | -1.0% | -1.0% | -34.8% | |
| Q3 2019 | -7.2% | -5.3% | +3.0% | |
| Q2 2019 | -1.3% | -6.5% | -5.2% | |
| Q1 2019 | +1.3% | -2.6% | -11.4% | |
| Q4 2018 | +2.4% | -3.0% | -10.5% | |
| Q3 2018 | +0.6% | +1.6% | +9.1% | |
| Q2 2018 | +11.9% | +10.7% | +18.1% | |
| Q1 2018 | +2.7% | +4.8% | +7.7% | |
| Q4 2017 | -3.2% | -5.8% | -6.5% | |
| Q3 2017 | -1.0% | +1.7% | -6.4% | |
| Q2 2017 | +0.4% | +1.1% | -8.3% | |
| Q1 2017 | +4.8% | +4.3% | +4.4% | |
| Q4 2016 | +5.4% | +6.2% | +2.0% | |
| Q3 2016 | +3.3% | +6.6% | +18.2% | |
| Q2 2016 | -4.8% | -5.3% | -7.8% | |
| Q1 2016 | +0.9% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | -3.3% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -1.1% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | +2.9% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | -3.3% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | -2.5% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | +7.3% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | -0.3% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | +6.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | +3.3% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | -6.3% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | +0.5% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | +0.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2010 | +0.3% | — | — | |
| Q4 2011 | +0.3% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | -0.8% | — | — | |
| Q3 2011 | +6.1% | — | — | |
| Q3 2012 | +3.8% | — | — | |
| Q2 2011 | -3.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2012 | +4.0% | — | — | |
| Q1 2011 | +2.6% | — | — | |
| Q1 2012 | +3.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2010 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2010 | — | — | — |
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