NYSE$ALSN

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Allison Transmission reported an increase in fourth quarter net sales and diluted EPS, driven by the realization of growth initiatives and further improvement in operating performance.

Allison Transmission reported record fourth quarter net sales of $718 million, up 11% year over year, and diluted EPS of $1.52, up 32% year over year. The company's performance was driven by strong customer demand across its Global On-highway and Off-highway end markets.

  • Net sales for the quarter were $718 million, up 11% year over year.
  • Diluted EPS for the quarter was $1.52, up 32% year over year.
  • Net income for the quarter was $141 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $245 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$718M

Previous: $644M+11.5%
EPS (adj)

$1.52

Previous: $1.15+32.2%
Adjusted EBITDA

$245M

Previous: $220M+11.4%
Capital Expenditures

$92M

Previous: $63M+46.0%
Free Cash Flow

$132M

Previous: $105M+25.7%
Net Income

$141M

Previous: $118M+19.5%
Operating Income

$192M

Previous: $176M+9.1%
Gross Profit

$338M

Previous: $305M+10.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$232M

Previous: $127M+82.7%
Total Assets

$4.67B

Previous: $4.46B+4.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$4M

Previous: $3M+33.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Allison · Revenue · Quarterly

$718M

Q4 2022+11.5%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Allison · $665M total across 4 segments · Q4 2022

  • North America On-Highway
    $333M+18.5%
  • Service Parts & Other
    $154M+9.2%
  • Outside North America On-Highway
    $131M+23.6%
  • Defense
    $47M-13.0%

Forward guidance

Allison expects 2023 Net Sales in the range of $2,825 to $2,925 million, Net Income in the range of $500 to $550 million, Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $965 to $1,025 million, Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities in the range of $605 to $665 million, Capital Expenditures in the range of $125 to $135 million, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow in the range of $480 to $530 million.

Tailwinds

  • Higher net sales across all end markets
  • Driven by price increases on certain products
  • Continued execution of growth initiatives

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.7%

Avg return

30 days after

61%

37 / 61 earnings

Positive

+11.9%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%-6.2%-9.5%
Q4 2025+4.8%+7.2%-0.4%
Q3 2025+2.4%-2.7%+8.7%
Q1 2025+4.1%+4.1%+10.8%
Q4 2024-12.5%-8.4%-15.8%
Q3 2024+8.2%+7.4%+18.8%
Q2 2024+6.2%+6.8%+9.6%
Q1 2024-6.9%-8.1%-5.3%
Q4 2023+11.6%+12.3%+19.4%
Q3 2023-10.8%-11.2%-5.7%
Q2 2023+1.7%+3.2%+1.4%
Q1 2023+7.4%+5.8%+6.9%
Q4 2022+10.3%+9.2%-8.0%
Q3 2022+5.8%+8.3%+12.9%
Q2 2022-8.4%-7.4%-11.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%+4.3%+8.7%
Q4 2021+1.4%+0.5%-2.4%
Q3 2021+2.8%+2.2%+9.3%
Q2 2021+1.0%+1.3%-4.1%
Q1 2021-3.9%-4.1%-2.8%
Q4 2020-9.6%-11.5%-0.2%
Q3 2020-6.8%-1.3%+10.9%
Q2 2020-1.9%-1.7%-4.7%
Q1 2020-0.5%+5.0%+9.5%
Q4 2019-1.0%-1.0%-34.8%
Q3 2019-7.2%-5.3%+3.0%
Q2 2019-1.3%-6.5%-5.2%
Q1 2019+1.3%-2.6%-11.4%
Q4 2018+2.4%-3.0%-10.5%
Q3 2018+0.6%+1.6%+9.1%
Q2 2018+11.9%+10.7%+18.1%
Q1 2018+2.7%+4.8%+7.7%
Q4 2017-3.2%-5.8%-6.5%
Q3 2017-1.0%+1.7%-6.4%
Q2 2017+0.4%+1.1%-8.3%
Q1 2017+4.8%+4.3%+4.4%
Q4 2016+5.4%+6.2%+2.0%
Q3 2016+3.3%+6.6%+18.2%
Q2 2016-4.8%-5.3%-7.8%
Q1 2016+0.9%
Q4 2015-3.3%
Q3 2015-1.1%
Q2 2015+2.9%
Q1 2015-3.3%
Q4 2014-2.5%
Q3 2014+7.3%
Q2 2014-0.3%
Q1 2014+6.6%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013+0.5%
Q1 2013+0.5%
Q4 2010+0.3%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q4 2012-0.8%
Q3 2011+6.1%
Q3 2012+3.8%
Q2 2011-3.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011+2.6%
Q1 2012+3.0%
Q3 2010
Q2 2010

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