NYSE$ALSN

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Allison Transmission reported a strong third quarter with significant year-over-year growth in net sales and diluted EPS, driven by resilient customer demand and the execution of growth initiatives.

Allison Transmission announced third quarter 2022 results with net sales of $710 million, a 25% increase year-over-year. Diluted EPS was $1.45, up 63% year-over-year. The company also reported record quarterly net sales in the Outside North America On-Highway end market.

  • Net sales increased by 25% year over year to $710 million.
  • Diluted EPS increased by 63% year over year to $1.45.
  • Record quarterly net sales of $118 million were achieved in the Outside North America On-Highway end market.
  • Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $245 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$710M

Previous: $567M+25.2%
EPS (adj)

$1.45

Previous: $0.89+62.9%
Adjusted EBITDA

$245M

Previous: $189M+29.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$75M

Previous: -$112M+33.0%
Free Cash Flow

$64M

Previous: -$18M+455.6%
Net Income

$139M

Previous: $94M+47.9%
Operating Income

$203M

Previous: $146M+39.0%
Gross Profit

$328M

Previous: $261M+25.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$180M

Previous: $261M-31.0%
Total Assets

$4.59B

Previous: $4.54B+1.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$5M

Previous: $3M+66.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Allison · Revenue · Quarterly

$710M

Q3 2022+25.2%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Allison · $650M total across 4 segments · Q3 2022

  • North America On-Highway
    $340M+23.6%
  • Service Parts & Other
    $157M+24.6%
  • Outside North America On-Highway
    $118M+26.9%
  • Defense
    $35M-10.3%

Forward guidance

Allison expects 2022 Net Sales in the range of $2,690 to $2,740 million, Net Income in the range of $490 to $510 million, Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $915 to $945 million, Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities in the range of $620 to $650 million, Capital Expenditures in the range of $160 to $170 million, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow in the range of $460 to $480 million.

Tailwinds

  • Net Sales in the range of $2,690 to $2,740 million.
  • Net Income in the range of $490 to $510 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $915 to $945 million.
  • Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities in the range of $620 to $650 million.
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow in the range of $460 to $480 million.

Headwinds

  • Capital Expenditures in the range of $160 to $170 million.
  • Increases in cost, disruption of supply or shortage of labor.
  • Global economic volatility.
  • The duration and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Our participation in markets that are competitive.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.7%

Avg return

30 days after

61%

37 / 61 earnings

Positive

+11.9%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%-6.2%-9.5%
Q4 2025+4.8%+7.2%-0.4%
Q3 2025+2.4%-2.7%+8.7%
Q1 2025+4.1%+4.1%+10.8%
Q4 2024-12.5%-8.4%-15.8%
Q3 2024+8.2%+7.4%+18.8%
Q2 2024+6.2%+6.8%+9.6%
Q1 2024-6.9%-8.1%-5.3%
Q4 2023+11.6%+12.3%+19.4%
Q3 2023-10.8%-11.2%-5.7%
Q2 2023+1.7%+3.2%+1.4%
Q1 2023+7.4%+5.8%+6.9%
Q4 2022+10.3%+9.2%-8.0%
Q3 2022+5.8%+8.3%+12.9%
Q2 2022-8.4%-7.4%-11.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%+4.3%+8.7%
Q4 2021+1.4%+0.5%-2.4%
Q3 2021+2.8%+2.2%+9.3%
Q2 2021+1.0%+1.3%-4.1%
Q1 2021-3.9%-4.1%-2.8%
Q4 2020-9.6%-11.5%-0.2%
Q3 2020-6.8%-1.3%+10.9%
Q2 2020-1.9%-1.7%-4.7%
Q1 2020-0.5%+5.0%+9.5%
Q4 2019-1.0%-1.0%-34.8%
Q3 2019-7.2%-5.3%+3.0%
Q2 2019-1.3%-6.5%-5.2%
Q1 2019+1.3%-2.6%-11.4%
Q4 2018+2.4%-3.0%-10.5%
Q3 2018+0.6%+1.6%+9.1%
Q2 2018+11.9%+10.7%+18.1%
Q1 2018+2.7%+4.8%+7.7%
Q4 2017-3.2%-5.8%-6.5%
Q3 2017-1.0%+1.7%-6.4%
Q2 2017+0.4%+1.1%-8.3%
Q1 2017+4.8%+4.3%+4.4%
Q4 2016+5.4%+6.2%+2.0%
Q3 2016+3.3%+6.6%+18.2%
Q2 2016-4.8%-5.3%-7.8%
Q1 2016+0.9%
Q4 2015-3.3%
Q3 2015-1.1%
Q2 2015+2.9%
Q1 2015-3.3%
Q4 2014-2.5%
Q3 2014+7.3%
Q2 2014-0.3%
Q1 2014+6.6%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013+0.5%
Q1 2013+0.5%
Q4 2010+0.3%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q4 2012-0.8%
Q3 2011+6.1%
Q3 2012+3.8%
Q2 2011-3.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011+2.6%
Q1 2012+3.0%
Q3 2010
Q2 2010

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