NYSE$ALSN

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Allison Transmission reported an increase in net sales compared to the previous quarter and announced an increase to its full year net sales guidance.

Allison Transmission reported Q1 2021 net sales of $588 million, a 10% increase from the fourth quarter of 2020. Net income for the quarter was $120 million, with diluted EPS at $1.07. The company raised its full year 2021 net sales guidance to $2,325 to $2,475 million.

  • Net sales for the first quarter were $588 million.
  • Net income reached $120 million, representing 20% of net sales.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $222 million, accounting for 38% of net sales.
  • Diluted EPS stood at $1.07.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$588M

Previous: $637M-7.7%
EPS (adj)

$1.07

Previous: $1.20-10.8%
Adjusted EBITDA

$222M

Previous: $257M-13.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$21M

Previous: -$21M+0.0%
Free Cash Flow

$99M

Previous: $118M-16.1%
Net Income

$120M

Previous: $139M-13.7%
Operating Income

$180M

Previous: $215M-16.3%
Gross Profit

$291M

Previous: $326M-10.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$295M

Previous: $114M+158.8%
Total Assets

$4.53B

Previous: $4.42B+2.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$3M

Previous: $3M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Allison · Revenue · Quarterly

$588M

Q1 2021-7.7%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Allison · $570M total across 4 segments · Q1 2021

  • North America On-Highway
    $319M-9.4%
  • Service Parts & Other
    $122M-11.6%
  • Outside North America On-Highway
    $84M+16.7%
  • Defense
    $45M+12.5%

Forward guidance

Allison expects 2021 Net Sales in the range of $2,325 to $2,475 million, Net Income in the range of $395 to $465 million, Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $795 to $885 million, Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities in the range of $585 to $655 million, Adjusted Free Cash Flow in the range of $415 to $475 million and Capital Expenditures in the range of $170 to $180 million.

Tailwinds

  • Net Sales in the range of $2,325 to $2,475 million
  • Net Income in the range of $395 to $465 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $795 to $885 million
  • Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities in the range of $585 to $655 million
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow in the range of $415 to $475 million

Headwinds

  • Capital Expenditures in the range of $170 to $180 million
  • Unspecified risks associated with business
  • Uncertainty in the global regulatory and business environments
  • Cyclical industries in which certain of end users operate
  • Competitive markets

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.7%

Avg return

30 days after

61%

37 / 61 earnings

Positive

+11.9%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%-6.2%-9.5%
Q4 2025+4.8%+7.2%-0.4%
Q3 2025+2.4%-2.7%+8.7%
Q1 2025+4.1%+4.1%+10.8%
Q4 2024-12.5%-8.4%-15.8%
Q3 2024+8.2%+7.4%+18.8%
Q2 2024+6.2%+6.8%+9.6%
Q1 2024-6.9%-8.1%-5.3%
Q4 2023+11.6%+12.3%+19.4%
Q3 2023-10.8%-11.2%-5.7%
Q2 2023+1.7%+3.2%+1.4%
Q1 2023+7.4%+5.8%+6.9%
Q4 2022+10.3%+9.2%-8.0%
Q3 2022+5.8%+8.3%+12.9%
Q2 2022-8.4%-7.4%-11.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%+4.3%+8.7%
Q4 2021+1.4%+0.5%-2.4%
Q3 2021+2.8%+2.2%+9.3%
Q2 2021+1.0%+1.3%-4.1%
Q1 2021-3.9%-4.1%-2.8%
Q4 2020-9.6%-11.5%-0.2%
Q3 2020-6.8%-1.3%+10.9%
Q2 2020-1.9%-1.7%-4.7%
Q1 2020-0.5%+5.0%+9.5%
Q4 2019-1.0%-1.0%-34.8%
Q3 2019-7.2%-5.3%+3.0%
Q2 2019-1.3%-6.5%-5.2%
Q1 2019+1.3%-2.6%-11.4%
Q4 2018+2.4%-3.0%-10.5%
Q3 2018+0.6%+1.6%+9.1%
Q2 2018+11.9%+10.7%+18.1%
Q1 2018+2.7%+4.8%+7.7%
Q4 2017-3.2%-5.8%-6.5%
Q3 2017-1.0%+1.7%-6.4%
Q2 2017+0.4%+1.1%-8.3%
Q1 2017+4.8%+4.3%+4.4%
Q4 2016+5.4%+6.2%+2.0%
Q3 2016+3.3%+6.6%+18.2%
Q2 2016-4.8%-5.3%-7.8%
Q1 2016+0.9%
Q4 2015-3.3%
Q3 2015-1.1%
Q2 2015+2.9%
Q1 2015-3.3%
Q4 2014-2.5%
Q3 2014+7.3%
Q2 2014-0.3%
Q1 2014+6.6%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013+0.5%
Q1 2013+0.5%
Q4 2010+0.3%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q4 2012-0.8%
Q3 2011+6.1%
Q3 2012+3.8%
Q2 2011-3.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011+2.6%
Q1 2012+3.0%
Q3 2010
Q2 2010

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