NYSE$ALSN

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Allison's Q4 2021 earnings were announced, showing strong growth in net sales and net income.

Allison Transmission reported a strong Q4 2021 with a 20% increase in net sales and a 97% increase in net income compared to the same period in 2020. The company's performance was driven by strong recovery in the Outside North America On-Highway end market and sequential growth across all end markets.

  • Net sales increased by 20% year-over-year to $644 million.
  • Net income increased by 97% year-over-year to $118 million.
  • Diluted EPS increased by 117% year-over-year to $1.15.
  • Outside North America On-Highway net sales increased by 38% year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$644M

Previous: $535M+20.4%
EPS (adj)

$1.15

Previous: $0.53+117.0%
Adjusted EBITDA

$220M

Previous: $186M+18.3%
Capital Expenditures

$63M

Previous: $35M+80.0%
Free Cash Flow

$105M

Previous: $128M-18.0%
Net Income

$118M

Previous: $60M+96.7%
Operating Income

$176M

Previous: $133M+32.3%
Gross Profit

$305M

Previous: $253M+20.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$127M

Previous: $310M-59.0%
Total Assets

$4.46B

Previous: $4.48B-0.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$3M

Previous: $6M-50.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Allison · Revenue · Quarterly

$644M

Q4 2021+20.4%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Allison · $582M total across 4 segments · Q4 2021

  • North America On-Highway
    $281M-1.1%
  • Service Parts & Other
    $141M+19.5%
  • Outside North America On-Highway
    $106M+37.7%
  • Defense
    $54M+22.7%

Forward guidance

Allison Transmission expects net sales in the range of $2,625 to $2,775 million, net income in the range of $430 to $520 million, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $865 to $975 million, net cash provided by operating activities in the range of $570 to $680 million, adjusted free cash flow in the range of $400 to $500 million and capital expenditures in the range of $170 to $180 million.

Tailwinds

  • Higher demand in the Global On-Highway end market.
  • Higher demand in the Global Off-Highway end market.
  • Higher demand in the Service Parts, Support Equipment & Other end markets.
  • Ongoing global economic recovery.
  • Continued strength in customer demand and price increases on certain products.

Headwinds

  • 10% increase in engineering – research and development expenses.
  • Funding product development initiatives in support of organic growth across all end markets.
  • Uncertainties related to the ongoing global economic recovery.
  • Potential impacts from increased competition.
  • Risks associated with international operations, including increased trade protectionism.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.7%

Avg return

30 days after

61%

37 / 61 earnings

Positive

+11.9%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%-6.2%-9.5%
Q4 2025+4.8%+7.2%-0.4%
Q3 2025+2.4%-2.7%+8.7%
Q1 2025+4.1%+4.1%+10.8%
Q4 2024-12.5%-8.4%-15.8%
Q3 2024+8.2%+7.4%+18.8%
Q2 2024+6.2%+6.8%+9.6%
Q1 2024-6.9%-8.1%-5.3%
Q4 2023+11.6%+12.3%+19.4%
Q3 2023-10.8%-11.2%-5.7%
Q2 2023+1.7%+3.2%+1.4%
Q1 2023+7.4%+5.8%+6.9%
Q4 2022+10.3%+9.2%-8.0%
Q3 2022+5.8%+8.3%+12.9%
Q2 2022-8.4%-7.4%-11.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%+4.3%+8.7%
Q4 2021+1.4%+0.5%-2.4%
Q3 2021+2.8%+2.2%+9.3%
Q2 2021+1.0%+1.3%-4.1%
Q1 2021-3.9%-4.1%-2.8%
Q4 2020-9.6%-11.5%-0.2%
Q3 2020-6.8%-1.3%+10.9%
Q2 2020-1.9%-1.7%-4.7%
Q1 2020-0.5%+5.0%+9.5%
Q4 2019-1.0%-1.0%-34.8%
Q3 2019-7.2%-5.3%+3.0%
Q2 2019-1.3%-6.5%-5.2%
Q1 2019+1.3%-2.6%-11.4%
Q4 2018+2.4%-3.0%-10.5%
Q3 2018+0.6%+1.6%+9.1%
Q2 2018+11.9%+10.7%+18.1%
Q1 2018+2.7%+4.8%+7.7%
Q4 2017-3.2%-5.8%-6.5%
Q3 2017-1.0%+1.7%-6.4%
Q2 2017+0.4%+1.1%-8.3%
Q1 2017+4.8%+4.3%+4.4%
Q4 2016+5.4%+6.2%+2.0%
Q3 2016+3.3%+6.6%+18.2%
Q2 2016-4.8%-5.3%-7.8%
Q1 2016+0.9%
Q4 2015-3.3%
Q3 2015-1.1%
Q2 2015+2.9%
Q1 2015-3.3%
Q4 2014-2.5%
Q3 2014+7.3%
Q2 2014-0.3%
Q1 2014+6.6%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013+0.5%
Q1 2013+0.5%
Q4 2010+0.3%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q4 2012-0.8%
Q3 2011+6.1%
Q3 2012+3.8%
Q2 2011-3.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011+2.6%
Q1 2012+3.0%
Q3 2010
Q2 2010

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