NYSE$ALSN

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Allison Transmission announced a 7% increase in net sales, driven by robust customer demand and global economic recovery, with diluted EPS up 31% and adjusted EBITDA up 15% year-over-year.

Allison Transmission reported a 7% increase in net sales to $567 million, with a diluted EPS of $0.89, up 31% year-over-year. Net income was $94 million, and adjusted EBITDA reached $189 million. The company's performance reflects the continuing recovery in global markets and customer demand, despite ongoing supply chain challenges.

  • Net sales increased by 7% year-over-year to $567 million.
  • Diluted EPS increased by 31% year-over-year to $0.89.
  • Net income was $94 million, representing 17% of net sales.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $189 million, representing 33% of net sales.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$567M

Previous: $532M+6.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.89

Previous: $0.68+30.9%
Adjusted EBITDA

$189M

Previous: $174M+8.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$112M

Previous: -$80M-40.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$18M

Previous: -$3M-500.0%
Net Income

$94M

Previous: $77M+22.1%
Operating Income

$146M

Previous: $128M+14.1%
Gross Profit

$261M

Previous: $254M+2.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$261M

Previous: $251M+4.0%
Total Assets

$4.54B

Previous: $4.45B+2.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$3M

Previous: $6M-50.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Allison · Revenue · Quarterly

$567M

Q3 2021+6.6%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Allison · $533M total across 4 segments · Q3 2021

  • North America On-Highway
    $275M-2.1%
  • Service Parts & Other
    $126M+5.9%
  • Outside North America On-Highway
    $93M+31.0%
  • Defense
    $39M-30.4%

Forward guidance

Allison expects 2021 Net Sales in the range of $2,325 to $2,400 million, Net Income in the range of $395 to $440 million, Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $795 to $845 million, Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities in the range of $585 to $635 million, Adjusted Free Cash Flow in the range of $415 to $455 million and Capital Expenditures in the range of $170 to $180 million.

Tailwinds

  • Higher demand in the Global On-Highway end market.
  • Higher demand in the Global Off-Highway end market.
  • Higher demand in the Service Parts, Support Equipment & Other end markets.
  • Ongoing global economic recovery.
  • Price increases on certain products.

Headwinds

  • Commercial vehicle industry production constraints.
  • Global supply chain challenges.
  • Adverse impact on commercial vehicle industry production.
  • Continuation of commercial vehicle industry production constraints for the foreseeable future.
  • Continuation of global supply chain challenges for the foreseeable future.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.7%

Avg return

30 days after

61%

37 / 61 earnings

Positive

+11.9%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%-6.2%-9.5%
Q4 2025+4.8%+7.2%-0.4%
Q3 2025+2.4%-2.7%+8.7%
Q1 2025+4.1%+4.1%+10.8%
Q4 2024-12.5%-8.4%-15.8%
Q3 2024+8.2%+7.4%+18.8%
Q2 2024+6.2%+6.8%+9.6%
Q1 2024-6.9%-8.1%-5.3%
Q4 2023+11.6%+12.3%+19.4%
Q3 2023-10.8%-11.2%-5.7%
Q2 2023+1.7%+3.2%+1.4%
Q1 2023+7.4%+5.8%+6.9%
Q4 2022+10.3%+9.2%-8.0%
Q3 2022+5.8%+8.3%+12.9%
Q2 2022-8.4%-7.4%-11.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%+4.3%+8.7%
Q4 2021+1.4%+0.5%-2.4%
Q3 2021+2.8%+2.2%+9.3%
Q2 2021+1.0%+1.3%-4.1%
Q1 2021-3.9%-4.1%-2.8%
Q4 2020-9.6%-11.5%-0.2%
Q3 2020-6.8%-1.3%+10.9%
Q2 2020-1.9%-1.7%-4.7%
Q1 2020-0.5%+5.0%+9.5%
Q4 2019-1.0%-1.0%-34.8%
Q3 2019-7.2%-5.3%+3.0%
Q2 2019-1.3%-6.5%-5.2%
Q1 2019+1.3%-2.6%-11.4%
Q4 2018+2.4%-3.0%-10.5%
Q3 2018+0.6%+1.6%+9.1%
Q2 2018+11.9%+10.7%+18.1%
Q1 2018+2.7%+4.8%+7.7%
Q4 2017-3.2%-5.8%-6.5%
Q3 2017-1.0%+1.7%-6.4%
Q2 2017+0.4%+1.1%-8.3%
Q1 2017+4.8%+4.3%+4.4%
Q4 2016+5.4%+6.2%+2.0%
Q3 2016+3.3%+6.6%+18.2%
Q2 2016-4.8%-5.3%-7.8%
Q1 2016+0.9%
Q4 2015-3.3%
Q3 2015-1.1%
Q2 2015+2.9%
Q1 2015-3.3%
Q4 2014-2.5%
Q3 2014+7.3%
Q2 2014-0.3%
Q1 2014+6.6%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013+0.5%
Q1 2013+0.5%
Q4 2010+0.3%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q4 2012-0.8%
Q3 2011+6.1%
Q3 2012+3.8%
Q2 2011-3.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011+2.6%
Q1 2012+3.0%
Q3 2010
Q2 2010

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