NYSE$ALSN

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc · Q2 2022 earnings

Q2 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Allison Transmission reported solid year-over-year performance in the second quarter of 2022, with net sales and diluted EPS both increasing.

Allison Transmission announced second quarter 2022 results with net sales of $664 million, a 10% increase year over year. Diluted EPS was $1.26, up 25% year over year. The company affirmed its full year 2022 guidance midpoints.

  • Net sales increased by 10% year over year to $664 million.
  • Diluted EPS increased by 25% year over year to $1.26.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $227 million for the quarter.
  • Adjusted free cash flow was $36 million for the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$664M

Previous: $603M+10.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.26

Previous: $1.01+24.8%
Adjusted EBITDA

$227M

Previous: $213M+6.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$50M

Previous: -$69M+27.5%
Free Cash Flow

$72M

Previous: $41M+75.6%
Net Income

$122M

Previous: $110M+10.9%
Operating Income

$187M

Previous: $167M+12.0%
Gross Profit

$311M

Previous: $288M+8.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$122M

Previous: $238M-48.7%
Total Assets

$4.53B

Previous: $4.52B+0.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$6M

Previous: $5M+20.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Allison · Revenue · Quarterly

$664M

Q2 2022+10.1%vs Q2 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Allison · $612M total across 4 segments · Q2 2022

  • North America On-Highway
    $340M+12.6%
  • Service Parts & Other
    $138M+7.8%
  • Outside North America On-Highway
    $105M+7.1%
  • Defense
    $29M-39.6%

Forward guidance

Allison Transmission narrows the full year 2022 guidance ranges and affirming the guidance midpoints released to the market on February 16. Allison expects 2022 Net Sales in the range of $2,650 to $2,750 million, Net Income in the range of $450 to $500 million, Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $885 to $955 million, Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities in the range of $590 to $660 million, Adjusted Free Cash Flow in the range of $420 to $480 million and Capital Expenditures in the range of $170 to $180 million.

Tailwinds

  • Net Sales in the range of $2,650 to $2,750 million
  • Net Income in the range of $450 to $500 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $885 to $955 million
  • Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities in the range of $590 to $660 million
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow in the range of $420 to $480 million

Headwinds

  • Capital Expenditures in the range of $170 to $180 million
  • Increases in cost, disruption of supply or shortage of labor, freight, raw materials or components used to manufacture or transport our products or those of our customers or suppliers, including as a result of the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Global economic conditions
  • The duration and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, including new variants of the virus and the pace and availability of vaccines and boosters, mitigating efforts deployed by government agencies and the public at large, and the overall impact from such outbreak on economic conditions, financial market volatility and our business
  • Our participation in markets that are competitive

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2022

Historical avgQ2 2022

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.7%

Avg return

30 days after

61%

37 / 61 earnings

Positive

+11.9%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%-6.2%-9.5%
Q4 2025+4.8%+7.2%-0.4%
Q3 2025+2.4%-2.7%+8.7%
Q1 2025+4.1%+4.1%+10.8%
Q4 2024-12.5%-8.4%-15.8%
Q3 2024+8.2%+7.4%+18.8%
Q2 2024+6.2%+6.8%+9.6%
Q1 2024-6.9%-8.1%-5.3%
Q4 2023+11.6%+12.3%+19.4%
Q3 2023-10.8%-11.2%-5.7%
Q2 2023+1.7%+3.2%+1.4%
Q1 2023+7.4%+5.8%+6.9%
Q4 2022+10.3%+9.2%-8.0%
Q3 2022+5.8%+8.3%+12.9%
Q2 2022-8.4%-7.4%-11.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%+4.3%+8.7%
Q4 2021+1.4%+0.5%-2.4%
Q3 2021+2.8%+2.2%+9.3%
Q2 2021+1.0%+1.3%-4.1%
Q1 2021-3.9%-4.1%-2.8%
Q4 2020-9.6%-11.5%-0.2%
Q3 2020-6.8%-1.3%+10.9%
Q2 2020-1.9%-1.7%-4.7%
Q1 2020-0.5%+5.0%+9.5%
Q4 2019-1.0%-1.0%-34.8%
Q3 2019-7.2%-5.3%+3.0%
Q2 2019-1.3%-6.5%-5.2%
Q1 2019+1.3%-2.6%-11.4%
Q4 2018+2.4%-3.0%-10.5%
Q3 2018+0.6%+1.6%+9.1%
Q2 2018+11.9%+10.7%+18.1%
Q1 2018+2.7%+4.8%+7.7%
Q4 2017-3.2%-5.8%-6.5%
Q3 2017-1.0%+1.7%-6.4%
Q2 2017+0.4%+1.1%-8.3%
Q1 2017+4.8%+4.3%+4.4%
Q4 2016+5.4%+6.2%+2.0%
Q3 2016+3.3%+6.6%+18.2%
Q2 2016-4.8%-5.3%-7.8%
Q1 2016+0.9%
Q4 2015-3.3%
Q3 2015-1.1%
Q2 2015+2.9%
Q1 2015-3.3%
Q4 2014-2.5%
Q3 2014+7.3%
Q2 2014-0.3%
Q1 2014+6.6%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013+0.5%
Q1 2013+0.5%
Q4 2010+0.3%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q4 2012-0.8%
Q3 2011+6.1%
Q3 2012+3.8%
Q2 2011-3.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011+2.6%
Q1 2012+3.0%
Q3 2010
Q2 2010

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