NYSE$ALSN

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc · Q1 2022 earnings

Q1 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Allison Transmission reported a strong first quarter with net sales up 15% year-over-year and diluted EPS up 21% year-over-year.

Allison Transmission announced first quarter 2022 results with net sales of $677 million, a 15% increase year-over-year. Diluted EPS was $1.30, up 21% year-over-year. The company affirmed its full year 2022 guidance.

  • Net sales increased by 15% year-over-year to $677 million.
  • Diluted EPS increased by 21% year-over-year to $1.30.
  • Record quarterly net sales were achieved in the Outside North America On-Highway end market.
  • The company affirmed its full year 2022 guidance.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$677M

Previous: $588M+15.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.30

Previous: $1.07+21.5%
Adjusted EBITDA

$244M

Previous: $222M+9.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$20M

Previous: -$21M+4.8%
Free Cash Flow

$109M

Previous: $99M+10.1%
Net Income

$129M

Previous: $120M+7.5%
Operating Income

$202M

Previous: $180M+12.2%
Gross Profit

$320M

Previous: $291M+10.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$145M

Previous: $295M-50.8%
Total Assets

$4.53B

Previous: $4.53B-0.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$3M

Previous: $3M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Allison · Revenue · Quarterly

$677M

Q1 2022+15.1%vs Q1 2021
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Allison · $629M total across 4 segments · Q1 2022

  • North America On-Highway
    $346M+8.5%
  • Service Parts & Other
    $139M+13.9%
  • Outside North America On-Highway
    $109M+29.8%
  • Defense
    $35M-22.2%

Forward guidance

Allison expects 2022 Net Sales in the range of $2,625 to $2,775 million, Net Income in the range of $430 to $520 million, Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $865 to $975 million, Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities in the range of $570 to $680 million, Adjusted Free Cash Flow in the range of $400 to $500 million and Capital Expenditures in the range of $170 to $180 million.

Tailwinds

  • Higher demand in the Global On-Highway end market.
  • Higher demand in the Global Off-Highway end market.
  • Higher demand in the Service Parts, Support Equipment & Other end market.
  • Ongoing global economic recovery.
  • Continued strength in customer demand and price increases on certain products.

Headwinds

  • The duration and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, including new variants of the virus and the pace and availability of vaccines and boosters.
  • Mitigating efforts deployed by government agencies and the public at large, and the overall impact from such outbreak on economic conditions, financial market volatility and our business.
  • Increases in cost, disruption of supply or shortage of labor, freight, raw materials or components used to manufacture or transport our products or those of our customers or suppliers, including as a result of the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Our participation in markets that are competitive.
  • Our ability to prepare for, respond to and successfully achieve our objectives relating to technological and market developments, competitive threats and changing customer needs, including with respect to electric hybrid and fully electric commercial vehicles.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2022

Historical avgQ1 2022

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.7%

Avg return

30 days after

61%

37 / 61 earnings

Positive

+11.9%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%-6.2%-9.5%
Q4 2025+4.8%+7.2%-0.4%
Q3 2025+2.4%-2.7%+8.7%
Q1 2025+4.1%+4.1%+10.8%
Q4 2024-12.5%-8.4%-15.8%
Q3 2024+8.2%+7.4%+18.8%
Q2 2024+6.2%+6.8%+9.6%
Q1 2024-6.9%-8.1%-5.3%
Q4 2023+11.6%+12.3%+19.4%
Q3 2023-10.8%-11.2%-5.7%
Q2 2023+1.7%+3.2%+1.4%
Q1 2023+7.4%+5.8%+6.9%
Q4 2022+10.3%+9.2%-8.0%
Q3 2022+5.8%+8.3%+12.9%
Q2 2022-8.4%-7.4%-11.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%+4.3%+8.7%
Q4 2021+1.4%+0.5%-2.4%
Q3 2021+2.8%+2.2%+9.3%
Q2 2021+1.0%+1.3%-4.1%
Q1 2021-3.9%-4.1%-2.8%
Q4 2020-9.6%-11.5%-0.2%
Q3 2020-6.8%-1.3%+10.9%
Q2 2020-1.9%-1.7%-4.7%
Q1 2020-0.5%+5.0%+9.5%
Q4 2019-1.0%-1.0%-34.8%
Q3 2019-7.2%-5.3%+3.0%
Q2 2019-1.3%-6.5%-5.2%
Q1 2019+1.3%-2.6%-11.4%
Q4 2018+2.4%-3.0%-10.5%
Q3 2018+0.6%+1.6%+9.1%
Q2 2018+11.9%+10.7%+18.1%
Q1 2018+2.7%+4.8%+7.7%
Q4 2017-3.2%-5.8%-6.5%
Q3 2017-1.0%+1.7%-6.4%
Q2 2017+0.4%+1.1%-8.3%
Q1 2017+4.8%+4.3%+4.4%
Q4 2016+5.4%+6.2%+2.0%
Q3 2016+3.3%+6.6%+18.2%
Q2 2016-4.8%-5.3%-7.8%
Q1 2016+0.9%
Q4 2015-3.3%
Q3 2015-1.1%
Q2 2015+2.9%
Q1 2015-3.3%
Q4 2014-2.5%
Q3 2014+7.3%
Q2 2014-0.3%
Q1 2014+6.6%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013+0.5%
Q1 2013+0.5%
Q4 2010+0.3%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q4 2012-0.8%
Q3 2011+6.1%
Q3 2012+3.8%
Q2 2011-3.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011+2.6%
Q1 2012+3.0%
Q3 2010
Q2 2010

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