NASDAQ$RUN

Sunrun Inc. · Q2 2021 earnings

Q2 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced second quarter 2021 financial results, with customer additions of 26,110, bringing total customers to 599,743, and increased full-year growth guidance to 30%.

Sunrun reported strong Q2 2021 financial results, driven by accelerated sales volumes and record installations. The company added 26,110 customers, bringing the total to 599,743. They also increased full-year growth guidance to 30% and are on track to deliver a break-out year, while navigating a dynamic supply chain environment.

  • Customer orders accelerated in Q2, increasing more than 25% quarter-over-quarter
  • Sunrun expects to accelerate its growth rate to 30%, an increase from the prior guidance of 25% to 30%.
  • Installation volumes and attachment rates of batteries have increased again in Q2 to a record level.
  • Sunrun grew the selective group of partners we work with by over 15% in Q2 compared to the prior quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$401M

Previous: $181M+121.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.20

Previous: -$0.11-81.8%
Total customers

599.7K

Previous: 309.0K+94.1%
Networked solar capacity (MW)

4.2K

Previous: 2.2K+95.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$5.51M

Previous: -$2.34M-135.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$46.8M

Previous: -$15.9M-194.1%
Net Income

-$41.2M

Previous: -$13.6M-204.1%
Operating Income

-$142M

Previous: -$83.5M-69.8%
Gross Profit

$202K

Previous: $181M-99.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$680M

Previous: $270M+152.1%
Total Assets

$15.4B

Previous: $6.01B+156.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$43.5M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Sunrun · Revenue · Quarterly

$401M

Q2 2021+121.3%vs Q2 2020
Beat estimate in 8 of 16 quarters(50%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Sunrun · $401M total across 2 segments · Q2 2021

  • Customer agreements
    $219M+106.9%
  • Energy systems & sales
    $182M+141.6%

Forward guidance

Management now expects Solar Energy Capacity Installed growth to be 30% for the full-year 2021, pro-forma for Vivint Solar, an increase from the prior guidance range of 25% to 30% growth. Total Value Generated is now expected to be in a range of $700-750 million for the full-year 2021, which has been adjusted primarily because of the effects of accelerating growth and timing of cost recognition. Management continues to expect cost synergies derived from the acquisition of Vivint Solar to be approximately $120 million in run-rate synergies by the end of 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Expects Solar Energy Capacity Installed growth to be 30% for the full-year 2021, pro-forma for Vivint Solar
  • Total Value Generated is now expected to be in a range of $700-750 million for the full-year 2021
  • Cost synergies derived from the acquisition of Vivint Solar to be approximately $120 million in run-rate synergies by the end of 2021
  • Customer orders accelerated in Q2, increasing more than 25% quarter-over-quarter
  • Installation volumes and attachment rates of batteries have increased again in Q2 to a record level.

Headwinds

  • effects of accelerating growth and timing of cost recognition
  • dynamic supply chain environment
  • Severe weather caused by climate change continues to uncover vulnerabilities with the electric grid’s aging infrastructure, leaving millions of people without power.
  • Permitting and interconnection delays can stall residential solar projects by 3 to 6 months and add thousands of dollars of costs to each project.
  • Net Subscriber Margin was lower than in prior periods given our accelerating sales activities and the upfront timing of cost recognition, as many costs are incurred ahead of installation volume recognition.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2021

Historical avgQ2 2021

-0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

24 / 45 earnings

Positive

+22.0%

Q1 2018

Best reaction

-35.0%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.7%+7.5%-0.7%
Q4 2025-35.0%-40.4%-38.3%
Q3 2025-16.0%-4.8%-13.9%
Q1 2025+15.0%+61.0%+15.2%
Q4 2024-8.3%-12.8%-24.9%
Q3 2024-14.0%-18.2%-11.1%
Q2 2024+10.8%+8.2%+16.5%
Q1 2024+5.3%-2.2%+14.2%
Q4 2023-19.6%-28.4%-28.6%
Q3 2023+8.3%+6.6%+48.6%
Q2 2023+0.3%-8.4%-17.4%
Q1 2023-13.0%-11.5%-3.8%
Q4 2022-1.4%-2.5%-24.9%
Q3 2022+13.9%+2.5%+42.5%
Q2 2022+2.0%+9.4%+0.6%
Q1 2022+8.9%-8.1%+16.7%
Q4 2021-12.4%-15.1%+25.4%
Q3 2021-3.6%-4.0%-31.5%
Q2 2021-8.4%-6.3%-13.8%
Q1 2021+7.7%-6.0%-2.5%
Q4 2020+0.0%+2.8%-8.7%
Q3 2020+6.9%-0.8%+6.9%
Q2 2020-7.9%-0.8%+20.1%
Q1 2020+4.2%+9.9%+41.1%
Q4 2019-7.5%-6.7%-51.1%
Q3 2019-4.6%+1.9%-1.8%
Q2 2019+0.1%-14.5%-19.7%
Q1 2019-7.3%-14.6%-2.4%
Q4 2018+2.4%-0.1%-9.8%
Q3 2018-2.9%-4.1%+7.6%
Q2 2018-7.0%-7.9%-14.2%
Q1 2018+22.0%+15.5%+34.6%
Q4 2017-6.1%-0.7%+38.1%
Q3 2017+6.5%+3.6%-2.2%
Q2 2017-3.0%-6.2%-2.8%
Q1 2017+2.0%+0.1%+10.4%
Q4 2016-0.6%-5.9%+1.3%
Q3 2016+6.7%+2.5%+22.1%
Q2 2016+19.3%+16.7%+16.1%
Q1 2015+3.3%
Q1 2016+3.8%
Q4 2015-4.4%
Q3 2015+4.6%
Q4 2014+0.5%
Q2 2015+1.0%
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014

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