NASDAQ$RUN

Sunrun Inc. · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Sunrun reported its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results, highlighting positive cash generation, increased net earning assets, and significant growth in storage capacity installed.

Sunrun achieved its third consecutive quarter of positive Cash Generation, reaching $34.2 million in Q4 2024. The company also paid down $132 million of recourse debt and saw its Net Earning Assets increase to $6.8 billion. Storage Capacity Installed grew significantly by 78% year-over-year, with attachment rates reaching 62%.

  • Achieved $34.2 million in Cash Generation in Q4 2024, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive cash flow.
  • Reduced recourse debt by $132 million in Q4 2024, contributing to a total of $186 million paid down since March 2024.
  • Increased Net Earning Assets to $6.8 billion, including $947 million in total cash.
  • Grew Storage Capacity Installed by 78% year-over-year to 392 Megawatt hours in Q4 2024, with storage attachment rates reaching 62%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$519M

Previous: $517M+0.4%
EPS (adj)

$1.41

Previous: -$1.33+206.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$792M

Previous: -$656M-20.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$1.05B

No prior period
Net Income

-$3.4B

Previous: -$350M-871.1%
Operating Income

-$3.26B

Previous: -$198M-1548.5%
Gross Profit

$74.8M

Previous: $34M+120.0%
R&D Expense

$8.79M

Previous: $7.66M+14.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Sunrun · Revenue · Quarterly

$519M

Q4 2024+0.4%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Sunrun · $563M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Customer agreements
    $317M+16.7%
  • Energy systems & sales
    $247M-31.6%

Forward guidance

Sunrun expects continued positive Cash Generation in Q1 2025 and for the full year 2025, alongside robust growth in Storage Capacity Installed and flat Solar Energy Capacity Installed.

Tailwinds

  • Expected Cash Generation of $40 million to $50 million in Q1 2025.
  • Anticipated full-year 2025 Cash Generation in the range of $200 million to $500 million.
  • Projected Storage Capacity Installed in Q1 2025 to be between 265 and 275 Megawatt hours, representing approximately 30% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.
  • Expected robust growth in Storage Capacity Installed year over year for the full-year 2025.
  • No recourse debt maturities until March 2027, providing financial flexibility.

Headwinds

  • Solar Energy Capacity Installed expected to be approximately flat year over year for the full-year 2025.
  • Solar Energy Capacity Installed in Q1 2025 expected to be in a range of 170 to 180 Megawatts, approximately flat year over year growth at the midpoint.
  • The company will explore further capital allocation options to maximize shareholder value based on market conditions and long-term outlook, which could imply various strategic decisions.
  • The company's ability to meet its guidance depends on market conditions and operational execution.
  • The guidance ranges indicate potential variability in performance.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

24 / 45 earnings

Positive

+22.0%

Q1 2018

Best reaction

-35.0%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.7%+7.5%-0.7%
Q4 2025-35.0%-40.4%-38.3%
Q3 2025-16.0%-4.8%-13.9%
Q1 2025+15.0%+61.0%+15.2%
Q4 2024-8.3%-12.8%-24.9%
Q3 2024-14.0%-18.2%-11.1%
Q2 2024+10.8%+8.2%+16.5%
Q1 2024+5.3%-2.2%+14.2%
Q4 2023-19.6%-28.4%-28.6%
Q3 2023+8.3%+6.6%+48.6%
Q2 2023+0.3%-8.4%-17.4%
Q1 2023-13.0%-11.5%-3.8%
Q4 2022-1.4%-2.5%-24.9%
Q3 2022+13.9%+2.5%+42.5%
Q2 2022+2.0%+9.4%+0.6%
Q1 2022+8.9%-8.1%+16.7%
Q4 2021-12.4%-15.1%+25.4%
Q3 2021-3.6%-4.0%-31.5%
Q2 2021-8.4%-6.3%-13.8%
Q1 2021+7.7%-6.0%-2.5%
Q4 2020+0.0%+2.8%-8.7%
Q3 2020+6.9%-0.8%+6.9%
Q2 2020-7.9%-0.8%+20.1%
Q1 2020+4.2%+9.9%+41.1%
Q4 2019-7.5%-6.7%-51.1%
Q3 2019-4.6%+1.9%-1.8%
Q2 2019+0.1%-14.5%-19.7%
Q1 2019-7.3%-14.6%-2.4%
Q4 2018+2.4%-0.1%-9.8%
Q3 2018-2.9%-4.1%+7.6%
Q2 2018-7.0%-7.9%-14.2%
Q1 2018+22.0%+15.5%+34.6%
Q4 2017-6.1%-0.7%+38.1%
Q3 2017+6.5%+3.6%-2.2%
Q2 2017-3.0%-6.2%-2.8%
Q1 2017+2.0%+0.1%+10.4%
Q4 2016-0.6%-5.9%+1.3%
Q3 2016+6.7%+2.5%+22.1%
Q2 2016+19.3%+16.7%+16.1%
Q1 2015+3.3%
Q1 2016+3.8%
Q4 2015-4.4%
Q3 2015+4.6%
Q4 2014+0.5%
Q2 2015+1.0%
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014

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