NASDAQ$RUN

Sunrun Inc. · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Sunrun reported financial results, highlighting storage capacity installed exceeding guidance and positive cash generation.

Sunrun reported Q4 2023 results with storage capacity installations exceeding guidance, reaching 219.7 Megawatt hours, and a storage attachment rate of 45%. The company generated $11 million in cash and reiterated its cash generation outlook for 2024.

  • Storage capacity installed reached 219.7 Megawatt hours, exceeding guidance and growing 154% year-over-year.
  • Storage attachment rates hit 45% of installations in Q4, with recent rates reaching approximately 48% on new sales.
  • Net Subscriber Value was $13,445 in Q4, an increase of $2,414 from Q3 and exceeding guidance.
  • Cash Generation was $11 million in Q4, reiterating the cash generation outlook for 2024.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$517M

Previous: $609M-15.2%
EPS (adj)

-$1.33

Previous: $0.29-558.6%
Total customers

936.5K

Previous: 797.3K+17.5%
Storage attachment rate

45.0%

No prior period
Subscriber value

$50.3K

No prior period
Creation cost per subscriber

$37K

No prior period
Net subscriber value

$13.3K

Previous: $16.6K-19.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$656M

Previous: $7.38M-8987.0%
Net Income

-$350M

Previous: $63M-655.7%
Operating Income

-$198M

Previous: -$189M-4.4%
Gross Profit

$34M

Previous: $54.4M-37.5%
R&D Expense

$7.66M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$27.6M

Previous: $21.9M+25.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Sunrun · Revenue · Quarterly

$517M

Q4 2023-15.2%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Sunrun · $563M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Customer agreements
    $317M+16.7%
  • Energy systems & sales
    $247M-31.6%

Forward guidance

Sunrun expects Storage Capacity Installed to be in a range of 800 to 1,000 Megawatt hours for the full-year 2024. Solar Energy Capacity Installed is expected to be in a range of approximately 971 to 1,073 Megawatts for the full-year 2024. Management is reiterating guidance of positive Cash Generation cumulatively from 4Q 2023 through 4Q 2024 and to reach an annualized Cash Generation run-rate of $200 million to $500 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Tailwinds

  • Storage Capacity Installed is expected to be in a range of 800 to 1,000 Megawatt hours the full-year 2024.
  • Storage Capacity Installed is expected to be in a range of 160 to 170 Megawatt hours in the first quarter of 2024.
  • Solar Energy Capacity Installed is expected to be in a range of approximately 971 to 1,073 Megawatts for the full-year 2024.
  • Total Value Generated is expected to grow by over 15% for the full-year 2024 driven by higher Subscriber Values and lower input costs.
  • Management is reiterating guidance of positive Cash Generation cumulatively from 4Q 2023 through 4Q 2024 and to reach an annualized Cash Generation run-rate of $200 million to $500 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Headwinds

  • Solar Energy Capacity Installed is expected to be in a range of 165 to 175 Megawatts in the first quarter of 2024.
  • This range represents a decline of approximately 23% to 27% from the fourth quarter, as volumes are typically seasonally lower in the first quarter owing to the timing of sales activities and weather-related limitations on installations.
  • Net Subscriber Value is expected to be sequentially lower in Q1, following typical seasonal patterns owing to fixed cost absorption and timing of sales activities and volume recognition.
  • More favorable cost absorption, an increasing mix of storage, meaningful hardware cost deflation tailwinds and forthcoming ITC adder value is expected to provide material uplift to our Net Subscriber Values in Q2 through Q4 of 2024.
  • Management expects Net Subscriber Value to reach levels during 2024 which exceed the realized amount in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

24 / 45 earnings

Positive

+22.0%

Q1 2018

Best reaction

-35.0%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.7%+7.5%-0.7%
Q4 2025-35.0%-40.4%-38.3%
Q3 2025-16.0%-4.8%-13.9%
Q1 2025+15.0%+61.0%+15.2%
Q4 2024-8.3%-12.8%-24.9%
Q3 2024-14.0%-18.2%-11.1%
Q2 2024+10.8%+8.2%+16.5%
Q1 2024+5.3%-2.2%+14.2%
Q4 2023-19.6%-28.4%-28.6%
Q3 2023+8.3%+6.6%+48.6%
Q2 2023+0.3%-8.4%-17.4%
Q1 2023-13.0%-11.5%-3.8%
Q4 2022-1.4%-2.5%-24.9%
Q3 2022+13.9%+2.5%+42.5%
Q2 2022+2.0%+9.4%+0.6%
Q1 2022+8.9%-8.1%+16.7%
Q4 2021-12.4%-15.1%+25.4%
Q3 2021-3.6%-4.0%-31.5%
Q2 2021-8.4%-6.3%-13.8%
Q1 2021+7.7%-6.0%-2.5%
Q4 2020+0.0%+2.8%-8.7%
Q3 2020+6.9%-0.8%+6.9%
Q2 2020-7.9%-0.8%+20.1%
Q1 2020+4.2%+9.9%+41.1%
Q4 2019-7.5%-6.7%-51.1%
Q3 2019-4.6%+1.9%-1.8%
Q2 2019+0.1%-14.5%-19.7%
Q1 2019-7.3%-14.6%-2.4%
Q4 2018+2.4%-0.1%-9.8%
Q3 2018-2.9%-4.1%+7.6%
Q2 2018-7.0%-7.9%-14.2%
Q1 2018+22.0%+15.5%+34.6%
Q4 2017-6.1%-0.7%+38.1%
Q3 2017+6.5%+3.6%-2.2%
Q2 2017-3.0%-6.2%-2.8%
Q1 2017+2.0%+0.1%+10.4%
Q4 2016-0.6%-5.9%+1.3%
Q3 2016+6.7%+2.5%+22.1%
Q2 2016+19.3%+16.7%+16.1%
Q1 2015+3.3%
Q1 2016+3.8%
Q4 2015-4.4%
Q3 2015+4.6%
Q4 2014+0.5%
Q2 2015+1.0%
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014

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