NASDAQ$NCMI

National CineMedia Inc · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

National CineMedia reported a decline in revenue and operating income for Q4 2024, with net income slightly increasing year-over-year.

National CineMedia, Inc. reported total revenue of $86.3 million for Q4 2024, marking a 5.1% decline from the prior year. Operating income dropped to $20.0 million, while net income increased to $24.7 million. The company attributed the revenue decline to an unfavorable movie slate compared to the previous year's strong performance driven by Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour.

  • Q4 2024 revenue declined by 5.1% to $86.3 million.
  • Operating income fell to $20.0 million from $20.5 million in Q4 2023.
  • Net income increased to $24.7 million from $23.7 million in the prior year.
  • EPS improved to $0.26 per diluted share from $0.24 in Q4 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$86.3M

Previous: $90.9M-5.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.26

Previous: $0.24+8.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$2.4M

Previous: $1.6M-250.0%
Free Cash Flow

$28.1M

No prior period
Net Income

$24.7M

Previous: $23.7M+4.2%
Operating Income

$20M

Previous: $20.5M-2.4%
Gross Profit

$42.8M

Previous: $49.9M-14.2%

Revenue & EPS history

National CineMedia · Revenue · Quarterly

$86.3M

Q4 2024-5.1%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 9 of 14 quarters(64%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National CineMedia · $57.7M total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • National Advertising
    $44.3M-12.6%
  • Local and Regional
    $13.4M+27.6%

Forward guidance

NCM expects Q1 2025 revenue to range between $34.0M and $36.0M, with Adjusted OIBDA projected between -$9.5M and -$7.5M, citing lower advertising impressions and reduced government spending as headwinds.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue expected to range between $34.0M and $36.0M in Q1 2025.
  • Robust second-quarter sales pacing suggests stronger H1 2025 performance.
  • Cinema advertising remains a premium platform for marketers.
  • Expansion of the NCMx data platform driving measurable ROI.
  • Continued audience engagement with blockbuster releases.

Headwinds

  • Lower expected impressions in Q1 2025 impacting revenue.
  • Temporary advertising spend delays due to government spending cuts.
  • Uncertainty in certain advertising categories due to ongoing tariff concerns.
  • Competitive pressure in the advertising market remains a challenge.
  • Industry-wide impact from last year's writer and actor strikes still affecting content pipelines.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+2.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.6%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

28 / 65 earnings

Positive

+232.3%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-27.2%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.9%-19.5%
Q4 2025+1.4%+1.4%-13.4%
Q3 2025+0.7%-9.3%-3.7%
Q1 2025-11.6%-12.1%-10.5%
Q4 2024-17.8%-12.9%-9.9%
Q3 2024-8.3%-11.5%-0.1%
Q2 2024+11.1%+7.4%+20.1%
Q1 2024+0.9%-1.5%+11.4%
Q4 2023+19.3%+32.8%+5.0%
Q3 2023+6.1%+2.7%-2.9%
Q2 2023+2.4%-6.5%+33.2%
Q1 2023+3.9%+0.0%+12.9%
Q4 2022+232.3%+169.2%+146.2%
Q3 2022+31.3%+38.1%-7.1%
Q2 2022-19.4%+2.3%-35.3%
Q1 2022-22.4%-31.7%-38.0%
Q4 2021-10.7%-11.7%-16.7%
Q3 2021-1.3%+0.3%-25.5%
Q2 2021-6.0%-14.7%-19.7%
Q1 2021-2.7%+2.1%-88.4%
Q4 2020-2.5%+26.1%-4.8%
Q3 2020+7.3%+4.0%+99.5%
Q2 2020+15.8%+20.2%+45.7%
Q1 2020-5.5%+3.6%+1.6%
Q4 2019+18.2%+5.9%-66.0%
Q3 2019-16.6%-10.1%-20.5%
Q2 2019-3.3%-0.6%+16.4%
Q1 2019+6.4%+6.7%-8.0%
Q4 2018+11.8%+6.5%+2.5%
Q3 2018-15.7%-12.9%-19.9%
Q2 2018-0.9%+5.2%+7.8%
Q1 2018+21.9%+29.6%+30.3%
Q4 2017-10.0%-17.5%-20.1%
Q3 2017-12.6%-16.1%-2.1%
Q2 2017-6.5%-17.0%-19.4%
Q1 2017-27.2%-28.7%-38.3%
Q4 2016-5.5%+0.4%-1.9%
Q3 2016+3.9%+13.0%+13.8%
Q2 2016-4.7%-3.4%-5.6%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015-3.4%
Q3 2015+5.7%
Q2 2015-2.5%
Q1 2015+6.8%
Q4 2014+0.7%
Q3 2014+13.0%
Q2 2014-13.1%
Q1 2014-4.1%
Q4 2013-13.4%
Q3 2013-7.5%
Q2 2013+5.2%
Q1 2013+7.8%
Q4 2011-0.5%
Q4 2012-2.9%
Q3 2012-10.0%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2011-6.4%
Q1 2012-0.1%
Q4 2009+4.2%
Q3 2011+10.0%
Q3 2010+10.0%
Q4 2010-6.4%
Q2 2010-6.4%
Q2 2011-6.4%
Q1 2010+2.0%

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