NASDAQ$NCMI

National CineMedia Inc · Q2 2022 earnings

Q2 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported consolidated results with revenue increasing and operating income improving.

National CineMedia, Inc. reported a significant increase in revenue for the second quarter of 2022, driven by increased theater attendance and a stronger film slate. Total revenue increased by 379.3% compared to the same quarter last year, and operating income improved from a loss to a gain. The company's adjusted OIBDA also showed substantial improvement, and the management guides to first full year of positive AOIBDA since the pandemic began.

  • Total revenue increased 379.3% to $67.1 million compared to Q2 2021.
  • Operating income improved to $5.6 million from an operating loss of $29.6 million in Q2 2021.
  • Adjusted OIBDA improved to $15.1 million from negative $18.7 million in Q2 2021.
  • Net loss was $0.7 million, or $0.01 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $22.7 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, in Q2 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$67.1M

Previous: $14M+379.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.10

Previous: -$2.80+96.4%
Adjusted OIBDA

$15.1M

No prior period
Adjusted OIBDA Margin

22.5%

No prior period
Total Attendance

124.2M

Previous: 49.1M+153.0%
Capital Expenditures

$800K

Previous: -$2.9M+127.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$17.6M

Previous: -$25.6M+31.3%
Net Income

-$700K

Previous: -$22.7M+96.9%
Operating Income

$5.6M

Previous: -$29.6M+118.9%
Gross Profit

$58.8M

Previous: $10.8M+444.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$74.4M

Previous: $147M-49.5%
Total Assets

$790M

Previous: $851M-7.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.6M

Previous: $2.1M-23.8%

Revenue & EPS history

National CineMedia · Revenue · Quarterly

$67.1M

Q2 2022+379.3%vs Q2 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 14 quarters(64%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National CineMedia · $61.2M total across 2 segments · Q2 2022

  • National Advertising
    $50.7M
  • Local and Regional
    $10.5M

Forward guidance

The Company expects to earn total revenue of $53.0 million to $57.0 million for the third quarter of 2022 and Adjusted OIBDA in the range of $3.0 million to $7.0 million. For the full year 2022, the Company expects to earn total revenue of $265.0 million to $285.0 million and Adjusted OIBDA in the range of $58.0 million to $75.0 million.

Tailwinds

  • Continued growth in the cinema advertising business is expected.
  • Strong film slate anticipated, especially moving into the fourth quarter with several blockbuster releases planned.
  • Monthly box office reached nearly $1 billion in June, resulting in NCM achieving pre-pandemic level AOIBDA margins.
  • The second quarter demonstrated, that with a strong film slate, large audiences will return to the theaters.
  • Company expects to earn total revenue of $265.0 million to $285.0 million for the full year 2022.

Headwinds

  • Variants of the COVID-19 virus continue to circulate throughout the United States and may lead to increased health and safety regulations and restrictions.
  • Impacts from post-production delays.
  • Future market uncertainties.
  • Lower revenue levels.
  • The Company is currently unable to forecast precisely the timing and/or magnitude of any such amounts or events.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2022

Historical avgQ2 2022

+2.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.6%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

28 / 65 earnings

Positive

+232.3%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-27.2%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.9%-19.5%
Q4 2025+1.4%+1.4%-13.4%
Q3 2025+0.7%-9.3%-3.7%
Q1 2025-11.6%-12.1%-10.5%
Q4 2024-17.8%-12.9%-9.9%
Q3 2024-8.3%-11.5%-0.1%
Q2 2024+11.1%+7.4%+20.1%
Q1 2024+0.9%-1.5%+11.4%
Q4 2023+19.3%+32.8%+5.0%
Q3 2023+6.1%+2.7%-2.9%
Q2 2023+2.4%-6.5%+33.2%
Q1 2023+3.9%+0.0%+12.9%
Q4 2022+232.3%+169.2%+146.2%
Q3 2022+31.3%+38.1%-7.1%
Q2 2022-19.4%+2.3%-35.3%
Q1 2022-22.4%-31.7%-38.0%
Q4 2021-10.7%-11.7%-16.7%
Q3 2021-1.3%+0.3%-25.5%
Q2 2021-6.0%-14.7%-19.7%
Q1 2021-2.7%+2.1%-88.4%
Q4 2020-2.5%+26.1%-4.8%
Q3 2020+7.3%+4.0%+99.5%
Q2 2020+15.8%+20.2%+45.7%
Q1 2020-5.5%+3.6%+1.6%
Q4 2019+18.2%+5.9%-66.0%
Q3 2019-16.6%-10.1%-20.5%
Q2 2019-3.3%-0.6%+16.4%
Q1 2019+6.4%+6.7%-8.0%
Q4 2018+11.8%+6.5%+2.5%
Q3 2018-15.7%-12.9%-19.9%
Q2 2018-0.9%+5.2%+7.8%
Q1 2018+21.9%+29.6%+30.3%
Q4 2017-10.0%-17.5%-20.1%
Q3 2017-12.6%-16.1%-2.1%
Q2 2017-6.5%-17.0%-19.4%
Q1 2017-27.2%-28.7%-38.3%
Q4 2016-5.5%+0.4%-1.9%
Q3 2016+3.9%+13.0%+13.8%
Q2 2016-4.7%-3.4%-5.6%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015-3.4%
Q3 2015+5.7%
Q2 2015-2.5%
Q1 2015+6.8%
Q4 2014+0.7%
Q3 2014+13.0%
Q2 2014-13.1%
Q1 2014-4.1%
Q4 2013-13.4%
Q3 2013-7.5%
Q2 2013+5.2%
Q1 2013+7.8%
Q4 2011-0.5%
Q4 2012-2.9%
Q3 2012-10.0%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2011-6.4%
Q1 2012-0.1%
Q4 2009+4.2%
Q3 2011+10.0%
Q3 2010+10.0%
Q4 2010-6.4%
Q2 2010-6.4%
Q2 2011-6.4%
Q1 2010+2.0%

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