NASDAQ$NCMI

National CineMedia Inc · Q2 2021 earnings

Q2 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced consolidated results, showing revenue increase following box office success and cost control measures.

National CineMedia, Inc. reported a 250% increase in revenue to $14.0 million for the second quarter ended July 1, 2021, compared to $4.0 million for the same quarter last year. The company's net loss for the quarter was $22.7 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $13.8 million, or $0.18 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2020.

  • Revenue increased 250.0% to $14.0 million compared to the prior year.
  • Operating loss increased 24.4% to $29.6 million.
  • Net loss was $22.7 million, or $0.28 per diluted share.
  • Approximately 97.0% of theaters within the Company’s network were open as of July 1, 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$14M

Previous: $4M+250.0%
EPS (adj)

-$2.80

Previous: -$1.70-64.7%
Total Attendance

49.1M

Previous: 200.0K+24450.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$2.9M

Previous: $1.9M-252.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$25.6M

Previous: $47.4M-154.0%
Net Income

-$22.7M

Previous: -$13.8M-64.5%
Operating Income

-$29.6M

Previous: -$23.8M-24.4%
Gross Profit

$10.8M

Previous: $2.9M+272.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$147M

Previous: $250M-41.0%
Total Assets

$851M

Previous: $1.15B-25.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.1M

Previous: $100K+2000.0%

Revenue & EPS history

National CineMedia · Revenue · Quarterly

$14M

Q2 2021+250%vs Q2 2020
Beat estimate in 8 of 16 quarters(50%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National CineMedia · $57.7M total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • National Advertising
    $44.3M-12.6%
  • Local and Regional
    $13.4M+27.6%

Forward guidance

Due to continued uncertainties related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Company is not providing revenue and Adjusted OIBDA guidance for the fiscal year ending December 30, 2021. The Company expects its revenue exiting the third quarter of 2021 to be at a run rate of approximately half of 2019 levels and to achieve breakeven cash flow after debt service on an accrual basis.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2021.
  • Revenue exiting the third quarter of 2021 expected to be at a run rate of approximately half of 2019 levels.
  • Expects to achieve breakeven cash flow after debt service on an accrual basis by the end of Q3 2021.
  • Trending back towards 2019 revenue levels by the end of 2021.
  • Positive fourth quarter 2021 Adjusted OIBDA after debt service expected.

Headwinds

  • Continued uncertainties related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Impact of changes in consumer behavior on attendance following the reopening of the theaters.
  • No revenue and Adjusted OIBDA guidance provided for the fiscal year ending December 30, 2021.
  • Contingent upon sales within the scatter market given limited upfront commitments in the third quarter of 2021.
  • Assumes that the theatrical release schedule remains firm and box office attendance continues to rebound.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2021

Historical avgQ2 2021

+2.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.6%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

28 / 65 earnings

Positive

+232.3%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-27.2%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.9%-19.5%
Q4 2025+1.4%+1.4%-13.4%
Q3 2025+0.7%-9.3%-3.7%
Q1 2025-11.6%-12.1%-10.5%
Q4 2024-17.8%-12.9%-9.9%
Q3 2024-8.3%-11.5%-0.1%
Q2 2024+11.1%+7.4%+20.1%
Q1 2024+0.9%-1.5%+11.4%
Q4 2023+19.3%+32.8%+5.0%
Q3 2023+6.1%+2.7%-2.9%
Q2 2023+2.4%-6.5%+33.2%
Q1 2023+3.9%+0.0%+12.9%
Q4 2022+232.3%+169.2%+146.2%
Q3 2022+31.3%+38.1%-7.1%
Q2 2022-19.4%+2.3%-35.3%
Q1 2022-22.4%-31.7%-38.0%
Q4 2021-10.7%-11.7%-16.7%
Q3 2021-1.3%+0.3%-25.5%
Q2 2021-6.0%-14.7%-19.7%
Q1 2021-2.7%+2.1%-88.4%
Q4 2020-2.5%+26.1%-4.8%
Q3 2020+7.3%+4.0%+99.5%
Q2 2020+15.8%+20.2%+45.7%
Q1 2020-5.5%+3.6%+1.6%
Q4 2019+18.2%+5.9%-66.0%
Q3 2019-16.6%-10.1%-20.5%
Q2 2019-3.3%-0.6%+16.4%
Q1 2019+6.4%+6.7%-8.0%
Q4 2018+11.8%+6.5%+2.5%
Q3 2018-15.7%-12.9%-19.9%
Q2 2018-0.9%+5.2%+7.8%
Q1 2018+21.9%+29.6%+30.3%
Q4 2017-10.0%-17.5%-20.1%
Q3 2017-12.6%-16.1%-2.1%
Q2 2017-6.5%-17.0%-19.4%
Q1 2017-27.2%-28.7%-38.3%
Q4 2016-5.5%+0.4%-1.9%
Q3 2016+3.9%+13.0%+13.8%
Q2 2016-4.7%-3.4%-5.6%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015-3.4%
Q3 2015+5.7%
Q2 2015-2.5%
Q1 2015+6.8%
Q4 2014+0.7%
Q3 2014+13.0%
Q2 2014-13.1%
Q1 2014-4.1%
Q4 2013-13.4%
Q3 2013-7.5%
Q2 2013+5.2%
Q1 2013+7.8%
Q4 2011-0.5%
Q4 2012-2.9%
Q3 2012-10.0%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2011-6.4%
Q1 2012-0.1%
Q4 2009+4.2%
Q3 2011+10.0%
Q3 2010+10.0%
Q4 2010-6.4%
Q2 2010-6.4%
Q2 2011-6.4%
Q1 2010+2.0%

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