NASDAQ$NCMI

National CineMedia Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

National CineMedia experienced revenue growth and increased operating income in Q4 2022, driven by a diverse film release schedule and the return of brands to cinema advertising.

National CineMedia, Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter earnings with a 44.4% increase in total revenue, a 251.3% increase in operating income, and a nearly 130% increase in Adjusted OIBDA. The company is undergoing debt restructuring to strengthen its balance sheet and position itself for long-term growth.

  • National CineMedia entered into a Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) to convert all debt into equity.
  • The company experienced a 44.4% increase in total revenue for Q4 2022, reaching $91.7 million.
  • Operating income increased by 251.3% in Q4 2022 compared to the same quarter in 2021.
  • Adjusted OIBDA increased by nearly 130% to $42.1 million for Q4 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$91.7M

Previous: $63.5M+44.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.80

Previous: -$0.50+260.0%
Adjusted OIBDA

$42.1M

Previous: $18.4M+128.8%
Adjusted OIBDA Margin

45.9%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$900K

Previous: $1.8M-50.0%
Net Income

$6.1M

Previous: $8.6M-29.1%
Operating Income

$28.1M

Previous: $8M+251.3%
Gross Profit

$61.7M

Previous: $55M+12.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$61.7M

Previous: $103M-39.8%
Total Assets

$792M

Previous: $817M-3.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$2M

Previous: $1.6M+25.0%

Revenue & EPS history

National CineMedia · Revenue · Quarterly

$91.7M

Q4 2022+44.4%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 14 quarters(64%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National CineMedia · $57.7M total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • National Advertising
    $44.3M-12.6%
  • Local and Regional
    $13.4M+27.6%

Forward guidance

National CineMedia is undergoing a financial restructuring to de-leverage its balance sheet and position itself for long-term growth. The company expects to emerge from the restructuring process quickly and without disrupting its operations or customer relationships.

Tailwinds

  • Debt will be converted into equity, completely de-levering the company's balance sheet.
  • Existing management and governance structures will be maintained to ensure continuity of operations.
  • NCM Inc. will receive an ownership interest of approximately 14% in the restructured company.
  • All holders of General Unsecured Claims will be paid in full in the ordinary course under the RSA.
  • The company's existing cash balances will provide the liquidity needed to continue operations.

Headwinds

  • The company has filed a voluntary Chapter 11 petition in the United States Bankruptcy Court.
  • The restructuring process could have potential risks and uncertainties.
  • The company's future performance depends on theater attendance levels and the availability of major motion pictures.
  • Increased competition for advertising expenditures could impact revenue.
  • Technological changes and economic conditions could affect the company's business.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+2.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.6%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

28 / 65 earnings

Positive

+232.3%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-27.2%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.9%-19.5%
Q4 2025+1.4%+1.4%-13.4%
Q3 2025+0.7%-9.3%-3.7%
Q1 2025-11.6%-12.1%-10.5%
Q4 2024-17.8%-12.9%-9.9%
Q3 2024-8.3%-11.5%-0.1%
Q2 2024+11.1%+7.4%+20.1%
Q1 2024+0.9%-1.5%+11.4%
Q4 2023+19.3%+32.8%+5.0%
Q3 2023+6.1%+2.7%-2.9%
Q2 2023+2.4%-6.5%+33.2%
Q1 2023+3.9%+0.0%+12.9%
Q4 2022+232.3%+169.2%+146.2%
Q3 2022+31.3%+38.1%-7.1%
Q2 2022-19.4%+2.3%-35.3%
Q1 2022-22.4%-31.7%-38.0%
Q4 2021-10.7%-11.7%-16.7%
Q3 2021-1.3%+0.3%-25.5%
Q2 2021-6.0%-14.7%-19.7%
Q1 2021-2.7%+2.1%-88.4%
Q4 2020-2.5%+26.1%-4.8%
Q3 2020+7.3%+4.0%+99.5%
Q2 2020+15.8%+20.2%+45.7%
Q1 2020-5.5%+3.6%+1.6%
Q4 2019+18.2%+5.9%-66.0%
Q3 2019-16.6%-10.1%-20.5%
Q2 2019-3.3%-0.6%+16.4%
Q1 2019+6.4%+6.7%-8.0%
Q4 2018+11.8%+6.5%+2.5%
Q3 2018-15.7%-12.9%-19.9%
Q2 2018-0.9%+5.2%+7.8%
Q1 2018+21.9%+29.6%+30.3%
Q4 2017-10.0%-17.5%-20.1%
Q3 2017-12.6%-16.1%-2.1%
Q2 2017-6.5%-17.0%-19.4%
Q1 2017-27.2%-28.7%-38.3%
Q4 2016-5.5%+0.4%-1.9%
Q3 2016+3.9%+13.0%+13.8%
Q2 2016-4.7%-3.4%-5.6%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015-3.4%
Q3 2015+5.7%
Q2 2015-2.5%
Q1 2015+6.8%
Q4 2014+0.7%
Q3 2014+13.0%
Q2 2014-13.1%
Q1 2014-4.1%
Q4 2013-13.4%
Q3 2013-7.5%
Q2 2013+5.2%
Q1 2013+7.8%
Q4 2011-0.5%
Q4 2012-2.9%
Q3 2012-10.0%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2011-6.4%
Q1 2012-0.1%
Q4 2009+4.2%
Q3 2011+10.0%
Q3 2010+10.0%
Q4 2010-6.4%
Q2 2010-6.4%
Q2 2011-6.4%
Q1 2010+2.0%

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