NASDAQ$NCMI

National CineMedia Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

National CineMedia reported a significant decrease in revenue and operating income due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but fortified its liquidity position through debt expansion and amendment.

National CineMedia's Q4 2020 results were significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, with a substantial decrease in revenue and operating income. The company responded by reducing costs, preserving cash, and securing additional financing to navigate the challenging environment. Despite the difficulties, NCM is optimistic about a future rebound as the vaccine rollout accelerates and theater audiences return.

  • Total revenue decreased by 89.3% to $15.7 million compared to the same quarter last year.
  • Operating income decreased by 128.6% to an operating loss of $20.8 million.
  • Net loss for the quarter was $35.2 million, or $0.45 per diluted share, compared to net income of $19.1 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, for the same quarter last year.
  • The company raised an additional $50 million of financing through a credit facility amendment.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$15.7M

Previous: $147M-89.3%
EPS (adj)

-$6.20

Previous: $2.40-358.3%
Adjusted OIBDA Margin

-63.1%

Previous: 56.7%-211.3%
Total Attendance

12.4M

Previous: 154.0M-91.9%
Capital Expenditures

$1.4M

Previous: $4.2M-66.7%
Net Income

-$35.2M

Previous: $19.1M-284.3%
Operating Income

-$20.8M

Previous: $72.7M-128.6%
Gross Profit

$13.8M

Previous: $136M-89.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$182M

Previous: $80.9M+124.7%
Total Assets

$886M

Previous: $1.13B-21.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.1M

Previous: $1.3M-15.4%

Revenue & EPS history

National CineMedia · Revenue · Quarterly

$15.7M

Q4 2020-89.3%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 8 of 16 quarters(50%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National CineMedia · $57.7M total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • National Advertising
    $44.3M-12.6%
  • Local and Regional
    $13.4M+27.6%

Forward guidance

Due to the unprecedented market conditions related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting uncertainty regarding the duration and ultimate impact of governmental regulations, the Company is not currently providing guidance for the fiscal year ending December 30, 2021.

Headwinds

  • The duration and ultimate impact of governmental regulations.
  • Mandated business closures and theater capacity restrictions that affect our network theaters and clients.
  • Shifting movie slates
  • The impact of changes in consumer behavior (such as social distancing) on attendance following the reopening of the theaters.
  • Uncertainty regarding the duration and ultimate impact of governmental regulations.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+2.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.9%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

28 / 65 earnings

Positive

+232.3%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-27.2%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.9%-19.5%
Q4 2025+1.4%+1.4%-13.4%
Q3 2025+0.7%-9.3%-3.7%
Q1 2025-11.6%-12.1%-10.5%
Q4 2024-17.8%-12.9%-9.9%
Q3 2024-8.3%-11.5%-0.1%
Q2 2024+11.1%+7.4%+20.1%
Q1 2024+0.9%-1.5%+11.4%
Q4 2023+19.3%+32.8%+5.0%
Q3 2023+6.1%+2.7%-2.9%
Q2 2023+2.4%-6.5%+33.2%
Q1 2023+3.9%+0.0%+12.9%
Q4 2022+232.3%+169.2%+146.2%
Q3 2022+31.3%+38.1%-7.1%
Q2 2022-19.4%+2.3%-35.3%
Q1 2022-22.4%-31.7%-38.0%
Q4 2021-10.7%-11.7%-16.7%
Q3 2021-1.3%+0.3%-25.5%
Q2 2021-6.0%-14.7%-19.7%
Q1 2021-2.7%+2.1%+16.3%
Q4 2020-2.5%+26.1%-4.8%
Q3 2020+7.3%+4.0%+99.5%
Q2 2020+15.8%+20.2%+45.7%
Q1 2020-5.5%+3.6%+1.6%
Q4 2019+18.2%+5.9%-66.0%
Q3 2019-16.6%-10.1%-20.5%
Q2 2019-3.3%-0.6%+16.4%
Q1 2019+6.4%+6.7%-8.0%
Q4 2018+11.8%+6.5%+2.5%
Q3 2018-15.7%-12.9%-19.9%
Q2 2018-0.9%+5.2%+7.8%
Q1 2018+21.9%+29.6%+30.3%
Q4 2017-10.0%-17.5%-20.1%
Q3 2017-12.6%-16.1%-2.1%
Q2 2017-6.5%-17.0%-19.4%
Q1 2017-27.2%-28.7%-38.3%
Q4 2016-5.5%+0.4%-1.9%
Q3 2016+3.9%+13.0%+13.8%
Q2 2016-4.7%-3.4%-5.6%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015-3.4%
Q3 2015+5.7%
Q2 2015-2.5%
Q1 2015+6.8%
Q4 2014+0.7%
Q3 2014+13.0%
Q2 2014-13.1%
Q1 2014-4.1%
Q4 2013-13.4%
Q3 2013-7.5%
Q2 2013+5.2%
Q1 2013+7.8%
Q4 2011-0.5%
Q4 2012-2.9%
Q3 2012-10.0%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2011-6.4%
Q1 2012-0.1%
Q4 2009+4.2%
Q3 2010+10.0%
Q3 2011+10.0%
Q4 2010-6.4%
Q2 2011-6.4%
Q2 2010-6.4%
Q1 2010+2.0%

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