NASDAQ$NCMI

National CineMedia Inc · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported an increase in revenue and an improved operating loss compared to the same quarter last year.

National CineMedia, Inc. reported a significant increase in revenue for the third quarter of 2021, driven by the reopening of theaters and increased attendance. Total revenue increased by 428.3% to $31.7 million compared to $6.0 million for the comparable quarter last year. The company's operating loss also improved to $18.7 million from $21.3 million in the same period last year.

  • Total revenue increased 428.3% to $31.7 million compared to the same quarter last year.
  • Operating loss improved to $18.7 million from $21.3 million for the third quarter of 2020.
  • Net loss for the third quarter of 2021 was $15.2 million, or $0.19 per diluted share.
  • Company expects to achieve positive quarterly Adjusted OIBDA for the first time since the pandemic started in Q4 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$31.7M

Previous: $6M+428.3%
EPS (adj)

-$1.90

Previous: -$1.60-18.7%
Adjusted OIBDA

-$8.2M

Previous: -$11.2M+26.8%
Adjusted OIBDA Margin

-25.9%

No prior period
Total Attendance

75.7M

Previous: 5.2M+1355.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$3.9M

Previous: -$6.6M+40.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$19.1M

Previous: -$19.3M+1.0%
Net Income

-$15.2M

Previous: -$12.7M-19.7%
Operating Income

-$18.7M

Previous: -$21.3M+12.2%
Gross Profit

$26.5M

Previous: $4.9M+440.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$110M

Previous: $218M-49.4%
Total Assets

$820M

Previous: $1.1B-25.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.7M

Previous: $800K+112.5%

Revenue & EPS history

National CineMedia · Revenue · Quarterly

$31.7M

Q3 2021+428.3%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National CineMedia · $57.7M total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • National Advertising
    $44.3M-12.6%
  • Local and Regional
    $13.4M+27.6%

Forward guidance

Due to continued uncertainties related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Company is not providing revenue and Adjusted OIBDA guidance for the fiscal year ending December 30, 2021. However, the Company expects to achieve positive quarterly Adjusted OIBDA for the first time since the pandemic started.

Tailwinds

  • The Company began to significantly reduce its cash burn rate.
  • Stronger fourth quarter national bookings.
  • Recovering local and regional business.
  • The fourth quarter is shaping-up to be a turning point for the Company.
  • Upfront national bookings of approximately 75% of 2019 levels including commitments from several existing and many new clients.

Headwinds

  • Continued uncertainties related to the COVID-19 pandemic over the near term.
  • Impact of changes in consumer behavior on attendance following the reopening of the theaters.
  • The Company is not providing revenue and Adjusted OIBDA guidance for the fiscal year ending December 30, 2021.
  • Third quarter advertising revenue lagged the cinema recovery.
  • The Company anticipates reviewing this guidance policy when it has more visibility into theater attendance trends and the level of commitments received in the national scatter market and as a result of our participation in the television upfront selling process.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

+2.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.9%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

28 / 65 earnings

Positive

+232.3%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-27.2%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.9%-19.5%
Q4 2025+1.4%+1.4%-13.4%
Q3 2025+0.7%-9.3%-3.7%
Q1 2025-11.6%-12.1%-10.5%
Q4 2024-17.8%-12.9%-9.9%
Q3 2024-8.3%-11.5%-0.1%
Q2 2024+11.1%+7.4%+20.1%
Q1 2024+0.9%-1.5%+11.4%
Q4 2023+19.3%+32.8%+5.0%
Q3 2023+6.1%+2.7%-2.9%
Q2 2023+2.4%-6.5%+33.2%
Q1 2023+3.9%+0.0%+12.9%
Q4 2022+232.3%+169.2%+146.2%
Q3 2022+31.3%+38.1%-7.1%
Q2 2022-19.4%+2.3%-35.3%
Q1 2022-22.4%-31.7%-38.0%
Q4 2021-10.7%-11.7%-16.7%
Q3 2021-1.3%+0.3%-25.5%
Q2 2021-6.0%-14.7%-19.7%
Q1 2021-2.7%+2.1%+16.3%
Q4 2020-2.5%+26.1%-4.8%
Q3 2020+7.3%+4.0%+99.5%
Q2 2020+15.8%+20.2%+45.7%
Q1 2020-5.5%+3.6%+1.6%
Q4 2019+18.2%+5.9%-66.0%
Q3 2019-16.6%-10.1%-20.5%
Q2 2019-3.3%-0.6%+16.4%
Q1 2019+6.4%+6.7%-8.0%
Q4 2018+11.8%+6.5%+2.5%
Q3 2018-15.7%-12.9%-19.9%
Q2 2018-0.9%+5.2%+7.8%
Q1 2018+21.9%+29.6%+30.3%
Q4 2017-10.0%-17.5%-20.1%
Q3 2017-12.6%-16.1%-2.1%
Q2 2017-6.5%-17.0%-19.4%
Q1 2017-27.2%-28.7%-38.3%
Q4 2016-5.5%+0.4%-1.9%
Q3 2016+3.9%+13.0%+13.8%
Q2 2016-4.7%-3.4%-5.6%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015-3.4%
Q3 2015+5.7%
Q2 2015-2.5%
Q1 2015+6.8%
Q4 2014+0.7%
Q3 2014+13.0%
Q2 2014-13.1%
Q1 2014-4.1%
Q4 2013-13.4%
Q3 2013-7.5%
Q2 2013+5.2%
Q1 2013+7.8%
Q4 2011-0.5%
Q4 2012-2.9%
Q3 2012-10.0%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2011-6.4%
Q1 2012-0.1%
Q4 2009+4.2%
Q3 2010+10.0%
Q3 2011+10.0%
Q4 2010-6.4%
Q2 2011-6.4%
Q2 2010-6.4%
Q1 2010+2.0%

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