NASDAQ$NCMI

National CineMedia Inc · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced consolidated results for the fiscal first quarter ended April 1, 2021, with revenue significantly impacted by theater closures and COVID-19 restrictions, but expressed optimism for industry revival.

National CineMedia, Inc. reported a challenging first quarter of 2021 due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which significantly impacted in-theater advertising revenue. The company managed liquidity through cost-control measures and a new term loan. Despite the difficulties, NCM is optimistic about a cinema industry revival with increasing theater attendance and a strong film slate expected for the second half of the year.

  • Total revenue decreased by 91.7% to $5.4 million compared to $64.7 million in the same quarter last year.
  • Operating loss increased by 677.6% to $28.3 million, compared to an income of $4.9 million in the first quarter of 2020.
  • Net loss for the first quarter of 2021 was $19.4 million, or $0.25 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $3.7 million, or $0.05 per diluted share, for the first quarter of 2020.
  • As of May 7, 2021, approximately 77% of the theaters within the Company's network are now open, as compared to 60% as of April 1, 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$5.4M

Previous: $64.7M-91.7%
EPS (adj)

-$2.40

Previous: -$0.50-380.0%
Adjusted OIBDA

-$16.2M

Previous: $14.4M-212.5%
Total Attendance

13.8M

Previous: 120.4M-88.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$2M

Previous: -$3.3M+39.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$21.4M

Previous: -$7M-205.7%
Net Income

-$19.4M

Previous: -$3.7M-424.3%
Operating Income

-$28.3M

Previous: $4.9M-677.6%
Gross Profit

$3.9M

Previous: $58.5M-93.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$191M

Previous: $193M-1.3%
Total Assets

$895M

Previous: $1.2B-25.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.7M

Previous: $200K+1250.0%

Revenue & EPS history

National CineMedia · Revenue · Quarterly

$5.4M

Q1 2021-91.7%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 7 of 16 quarters(44%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National CineMedia · $57.7M total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • National Advertising
    $44.3M-12.6%
  • Local and Regional
    $13.4M+27.6%

Forward guidance

Due to the continued uncertainties related to the COVID-19 pandemic over the near term and the impact of changes in consumer behavior on attendance following the reopening of the theaters, the Company is not providing revenue and Adjusted OIBDA guidance for the fiscal year ending December 30, 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue to begin to meaningfully increase in June 2021.
  • Network attendance levels expected to pick up in the second quarter of 2021.
  • Theatrical release schedules firming-up for the remainder of 2021.
  • Expects to recognize more meaningful in-theater revenue in the third quarter of 2021 with a continued build into the fourth quarter of 2021 that will benefit from our participation in the 2021 television upfront.
  • Expectation that late in the third quarter of 2021 we will achieve breakeven cash flow after debt service on an accrual basis and by the end of 2021 we expect to be trending back towards 2019 revenue levels

Headwinds

  • Continued uncertainties related to the COVID-19 pandemic over the near term
  • Impact of changes in consumer behavior on attendance following the reopening of the theaters
  • Not providing revenue and Adjusted OIBDA guidance for the fiscal year ending December 30, 2021.
  • Revenue is expected to remain well below pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels.
  • Assumes that the theatrical release schedule remains firm, COVID-19 cases further decline allowing government restrictions to continue to decrease and an upfront consistent with the Company's expectations.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

+2.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.9%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

28 / 65 earnings

Positive

+232.3%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-27.2%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.9%-19.5%
Q4 2025+1.4%+1.4%-13.4%
Q3 2025+0.7%-9.3%-3.7%
Q1 2025-11.6%-12.1%-10.5%
Q4 2024-17.8%-12.9%-9.9%
Q3 2024-8.3%-11.5%-0.1%
Q2 2024+11.1%+7.4%+20.1%
Q1 2024+0.9%-1.5%+11.4%
Q4 2023+19.3%+32.8%+5.0%
Q3 2023+6.1%+2.7%-2.9%
Q2 2023+2.4%-6.5%+33.2%
Q1 2023+3.9%+0.0%+12.9%
Q4 2022+232.3%+169.2%+146.2%
Q3 2022+31.3%+38.1%-7.1%
Q2 2022-19.4%+2.3%-35.3%
Q1 2022-22.4%-31.7%-38.0%
Q4 2021-10.7%-11.7%-16.7%
Q3 2021-1.3%+0.3%-25.5%
Q2 2021-6.0%-14.7%-19.7%
Q1 2021-2.7%+2.1%+16.3%
Q4 2020-2.5%+26.1%-4.8%
Q3 2020+7.3%+4.0%+99.5%
Q2 2020+15.8%+20.2%+45.7%
Q1 2020-5.5%+3.6%+1.6%
Q4 2019+18.2%+5.9%-66.0%
Q3 2019-16.6%-10.1%-20.5%
Q2 2019-3.3%-0.6%+16.4%
Q1 2019+6.4%+6.7%-8.0%
Q4 2018+11.8%+6.5%+2.5%
Q3 2018-15.7%-12.9%-19.9%
Q2 2018-0.9%+5.2%+7.8%
Q1 2018+21.9%+29.6%+30.3%
Q4 2017-10.0%-17.5%-20.1%
Q3 2017-12.6%-16.1%-2.1%
Q2 2017-6.5%-17.0%-19.4%
Q1 2017-27.2%-28.7%-38.3%
Q4 2016-5.5%+0.4%-1.9%
Q3 2016+3.9%+13.0%+13.8%
Q2 2016-4.7%-3.4%-5.6%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015-3.4%
Q3 2015+5.7%
Q2 2015-2.5%
Q1 2015+6.8%
Q4 2014+0.7%
Q3 2014+13.0%
Q2 2014-13.1%
Q1 2014-4.1%
Q4 2013-13.4%
Q3 2013-7.5%
Q2 2013+5.2%
Q1 2013+7.8%
Q4 2011-0.5%
Q4 2012-2.9%
Q3 2012-10.0%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2011-6.4%
Q1 2012-0.1%
Q4 2009+4.2%
Q3 2010+10.0%
Q3 2011+10.0%
Q4 2010-6.4%
Q2 2011-6.4%
Q2 2010-6.4%
Q1 2010+2.0%

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