NASDAQ$MAT

Mattel Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Mattel's Q3 2023 performance reflected a successful execution of their strategy, marked by increased consumer demand and outpacing the industry, benefiting from the success of the Barbie movie.

Mattel reported a strong third quarter with net sales up 9% to $1,919 million. The company raised its 2023 guidance for Adjusted Gross Margin, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted EPS, driven by the success of the Barbie movie and overall strategic execution.

  • Net sales increased by 9% as reported, or 7% in constant currency, reaching $1,919 million.
  • Operating income rose to $474 million, an increase of $82 million compared to the prior year.
  • Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) increased to $1.08, compared to $0.82 in the prior year.
  • The company updated its full-year 2023 guidance, anticipating improvements in adjusted gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.92B

Previous: $1.76B+9.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.08

Previous: $0.82+31.7%
Vehicles Gross Billings

$519M

Previous: $438M+18.4%
Dolls Gross Billings

$885M

Previous: $697M+26.9%
Infant, Toddler, and Preschool Gross Billings

$361M

Previous: $370M-2.4%
Action Figures, Building Sets, Games, and Other Gross Billings

$358M

Previous: $443M-19.2%
Barbie Gross Billings

$605M

Previous: $520M+16.5%
Hot Wheels Gross Billings

$455M

Previous: $372M+22.4%
Fisher-Price Gross Billings

$317M

Previous: $348M-8.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$60.8M

Previous: -$69.4M+12.4%
Free Cash Flow

$85.5M

Previous: $221M-61.2%
Net Income

$146M

Previous: $290M-49.5%
Operating Income

$474M

Previous: $391M+21.1%
Gross Profit

$978M

Previous: $847M+15.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$456M

Previous: $349M+30.6%
Total Assets

$6.24B

Previous: $6.47B-3.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$15.5M

Previous: $18.1M-14.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Mattel · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.92B

Q3 2023+9.3%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Mattel · $1.88B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • North America Net Sales
    $1.1B+10.2%
  • International Net Sales
    $772M+9.5%

Forward guidance

Mattel updated its full year 2023 guidance.

Tailwinds

  • Adjusted Gross Margin: 47 - 48%
  • Adjusted EPS: $1.15 - $1.25
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $925 - $975 million
  • Adjusted Tax Rate: 25 - 26%
  • Free Cash Flow: > $400 million

Headwinds

  • The company is operating in a challenging macro-economic environment with higher volatility, including inflation, that may impact consumer demand.
  • Guidance takes into account what the company is aware of today but remains subject to further volatility and any unexpected disruption
  • Fluctuations in foreign exchange rates
  • Changes in global economic conditions and consumer demand
  • Labor market fluctuations, and other macro-economic risks and uncertainties.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.3%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

42 / 73 earnings

Positive

+21.9%

Q4 2018

Best reaction

-25.0%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.9%-1.1%+0.3%
Q4 2025-25.0%-21.8%-23.7%
Q3 2025-2.8%+1.2%+5.4%
Q2 2025-0.5%-3.2%-3.0%
Q1 2025-0.6%+0.8%+20.5%
Q4 2024+15.3%+17.9%+16.2%
Q3 2024+2.5%+8.9%+3.2%
Q2 2024+1.3%+2.6%+2.9%
Q1 2024+3.0%-1.4%-5.9%
Q4 2023+1.9%+3.5%+6.9%
Q3 2023-8.1%-7.1%-7.1%
Q2 2023+0.3%+0.6%+3.3%
Q1 2023+7.4%+5.2%+6.9%
Q4 2022-11.8%-11.1%-19.5%
Q3 2022-2.3%-5.1%-8.0%
Q2 2022-4.5%-6.5%+3.0%
Q1 2022+11.6%+11.8%+11.8%
Q4 2021+11.8%+10.5%+3.3%
Q3 2021+2.9%+3.3%+13.9%
Q2 2021+3.6%+4.5%+4.7%
Q1 2021+1.0%+4.6%-3.5%
Q4 2020+0.1%+1.4%+13.8%
Q3 2020+13.7%+14.6%+20.8%
Q2 2020-0.2%-0.4%-1.9%
Q1 2020-1.0%+2.8%+18.1%
Q4 2019-3.9%-8.3%-43.1%
Q3 2019+16.7%+15.4%+14.7%
Q2 2019+13.5%+15.9%-24.4%
Q1 2019-3.2%-2.8%-12.8%
Q4 2018+21.9%+31.9%+16.0%
Q3 2018+0.1%+2.6%+0.0%
Q2 2018-5.3%-5.6%-6.6%
Q1 2018+5.1%+4.3%+13.0%
Q4 2017+4.4%+6.4%+4.6%
Q3 2017-9.4%-8.6%+19.8%
Q2 2017-6.1%-5.7%-21.3%
Q1 2017-13.2%-11.9%-11.8%
Q4 2016-16.7%-15.6%-17.4%
Q3 2016+5.7%+7.7%-0.6%
Q2 2016+1.1%+1.3%+1.5%
Q1 2016-8.2%
Q4 2015+10.4%
Q3 2015+6.1%
Q2 2015-5.0%
Q1 2015+5.4%
Q4 2014+3.8%
Q3 2014-5.8%
Q2 2014-7.3%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-16.2%
Q3 2013+2.1%
Q2 2013-5.9%
Q1 2013+2.3%
Q4 2012+3.1%
Q3 2012+5.6%
Q2 2012+10.3%
Q1 2012-6.8%
Q4 2011+0.5%
Q3 2011+4.4%
Q2 2011-0.7%
Q1 2011+1.1%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q3 2010-0.7%
Q2 2010-1.1%
Q1 2009+1.6%
Q1 2010-2.2%
Q4 2007+1.3%
Q4 2009+1.3%
Q3 2008-0.3%
Q3 2009-0.3%
Q4 2008+1.8%
Q2 2008+1.8%
Q2 2009+1.8%

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