NASDAQ$GPRE

Green Plains Inc · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net loss due to near-record corn basis levels and maintenance shutdowns, but anticipates a strong full year and improved results in 2022 with transformation plan execution.

Green Plains reported a net loss of $59.6 million for the third quarter of 2021, impacted by high corn basis levels and maintenance. However, the company is optimistic about achieving long-term goals with its low-carbon strategy and expects improved results in 2022.

  • Final commissioning of the Wood River Fluid Quip MSC system is underway, with value-added ingredient shipments expected in November.
  • Multi-year MOU signed for Ultra-High Protein sales into pet food through 2023, with increased sales volumes expected in 2022.
  • Clean Sugar pilot plant continues to produce low-carbon sugars, with ongoing discussions for potential co-location opportunities.
  • Expect completion of four Ultra-High Protein facilities over the next 12 months.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$747M

Previous: $424M+76.1%
EPS (adj)

-$1.18

Previous: -$1.05-12.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$124M

Previous: -$85.4M-44.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$183M

Previous: -$120M-52.9%
Net Income

-$59.6M

Previous: -$34.5M-72.9%
Operating Income

-$44.7M

Previous: -$14.2M-214.5%
Gross Profit

$16.6M

Previous: $30.1M-44.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$590M

Previous: $150M+292.2%
Total Assets

$2.11B

Previous: $1.54B+37.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.01M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Green Plains · Revenue · Quarterly

$747M

Q3 2021+76.1%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Green Plains · $323M total across 2 segments · Q3 2021

  • Agribusiness and Energy Services
    $323M-23.9%
  • Ethanol Production
    $1.1-100.0%

Forward guidance

Green Plains anticipates full year to finish strong and above our long-term view of the Green Plains 1.0 platform and on track to deliver improved results into 2022.

Tailwinds

  • Expect to begin shipping value-added ingredients as early as November.
  • Expect renewable corn oil’s financial contribution to remain strong, supported by both higher yields and higher prices.
  • Expect to have the capacity to produce over 330 million pounds of renewable corn oil annually by the end of 2022.
  • Negotiating additional multi-year distribution and supply agreements.
  • Believe this technology can differentiate Green Plains as we use the Fluid Quip IP portfolio to transform our sites into modern day bio-campuses.

Headwinds

  • Net loss attributable to the company was $59.6 million.
  • The third quarter results of $0.01 per gallon consolidated crush margin were impacted by the near-record physical corn basis levels.
  • Accelerated completion of maintenance shutdowns.
  • Previously announced MTM timing reversals.
  • Operating loss increased $30.5 million for the three months ended September 30, 2021.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

+1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+28.2%

Q3 2012

Best reaction

-20.4%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.4%-1.2%-11.8%
Q4 2025+0.5%+16.9%+25.6%
Q3 2025+12.7%-2.5%-2.8%
Q1 2025+1.9%+35.0%+10.6%
Q4 2024-20.4%-24.8%-30.8%
Q3 2024+2.6%+10.6%-7.2%
Q2 2024-10.8%-18.4%-15.9%
Q1 2024-4.1%-5.6%-17.2%
Q4 2023+18.0%+22.9%+3.2%
Q3 2023-2.6%-1.4%-13.0%
Q2 2023-4.2%-1.1%-8.8%
Q1 2023-4.8%-11.1%-5.8%
Q4 2022+3.0%+4.2%-6.7%
Q3 2022+13.2%+19.6%+26.8%
Q2 2022+4.2%+3.5%-0.3%
Q1 2022+8.7%+14.5%+23.6%
Q4 2021-18.3%-14.6%-6.4%
Q3 2021+8.2%+7.1%-6.9%
Q2 2021+6.8%-1.2%+1.8%
Q1 2021+2.9%+7.3%+9.9%
Q4 2020+13.6%+27.1%+31.7%
Q3 2020-2.3%+8.7%+3.9%
Q2 2020+2.1%+11.1%+8.0%
Q1 2020+17.0%+26.2%+66.0%
Q4 2019+5.0%+6.0%-52.5%
Q3 2019+12.3%+17.5%+7.7%
Q2 2019-3.3%-8.4%-7.0%
Q1 2019-2.4%-3.0%-22.3%
Q4 2018+7.9%+14.7%+20.9%
Q3 2018-0.3%-4.0%-11.5%
Q2 2018+4.8%+4.2%+6.9%
Q1 2018+7.0%+7.5%+15.0%
Q4 2017+8.6%+9.2%+13.4%
Q3 2017-8.5%-6.9%-7.2%
Q2 2017-4.5%-3.5%-12.1%
Q1 2017+10.2%+12.0%-7.2%
Q4 2016+11.2%+0.4%-4.4%
Q3 2016+2.5%-2.5%+5.4%
Q2 2016-5.2%-0.7%+7.1%
Q1 2016-6.8%
Q4 2015-19.3%
Q3 2015+10.5%
Q2 2015+4.8%
Q1 2015+1.0%
Q4 2014+4.6%
Q3 2014+11.6%
Q2 2014-3.3%
Q1 2014+6.1%
Q4 2013+1.1%
Q3 2013+5.5%
Q2 2013-7.8%
Q1 2013+4.1%
Q4 2012+9.6%
Q3 2012+28.2%
Q2 2012-18.5%
Q1 2011-2.3%
Q1 2012-10.3%
Q4 2009+5.6%
Q4 2011+5.6%
Q3 2010-1.4%
Q3 2011-1.4%
Q4 2010-2.9%
Q2 2010-2.9%
Q2 2011-2.9%
Q1 2010+1.3%

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