NASDAQ$GPRE

Green Plains Inc · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net loss due to operational setbacks, including downtime at the Wood River plant, but anticipates a stronger second half of 2023 with improved industry margins and increased production rates.

Green Plains Inc. reported a net loss of $52.6 million, or ($0.89) per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2023, compared to a net income of $46.4 million, or $0.73 per diluted share, for the same period in 2022. Revenues decreased to $857.6 million from $1,012.4 million year-over-year. The company experienced operational challenges, including downtime at its Wood River plant, but expects a significantly stronger second half of 2023 due to improved industry margins and increased production rates.

  • Net loss attributable to the company was $52.6 million, or ($0.89) per diluted share.
  • Revenues were $857.6 million for the second quarter of 2023.
  • Consolidated crush margin was $0.01 per gallon for the second quarter.
  • EBITDA of ($15.0) million compared to $84.4 million inclusive of a USDA COVID-19 relief payment of $27.7 million for the same period in the prior year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$858M

Previous: $1.01B-15.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.89

Previous: $0.73-221.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$48.9M

Previous: -$128M+61.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$102M

Previous: -$81.9M-24.0%
Net Income

-$52.6M

Previous: $46.4M-213.4%
Operating Income

-$42.5M

Previous: $33.8M-225.5%
Gross Profit

$22.5M

Previous: $91.1M-75.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$313M

Previous: $508M-38.4%
Total Assets

$2.02B

Previous: $2.3B-11.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.85M

Previous: $2.38M+61.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Green Plains · Revenue · Quarterly

$858M

Q2 2023-15.3%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Green Plains · $863M total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • Ethanol Production
    $727M+214.1%
  • Agribusiness and Energy Services
    $136M+23.9%

Forward guidance

EBITDA for the last half of 2023 is projected to be materially stronger based on current industry margins, strong year-over-year Ultra-High Protein sales with expanding margin structure, recovery of renewable corn oil pricing and the return to full production operating rates

Tailwinds

  • Fundamentals for the company's strategy have improved across protein, oil, sugar, and carbon.
  • Driving demand remains robust.
  • Protein margins have expanded.
  • Renewable corn oil prices have improved.
  • Clean sugar facility at Shenandoah and MSC turnkey project with Tharaldson are both on track to come online in the first quarter of 2024.

Headwinds

  • The quarter was negatively impacted by operational events.
  • Wood River plant was down for most of the quarter.
  • Experienced planned and unplanned downtime at many of largest facilities.
  • Lower volumes sold on ethanol, distillers grains and renewable corn oil.
  • Lower weighted average selling prices on distillers grains and renewable corn oil.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

+1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+28.2%

Q3 2012

Best reaction

-20.4%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.4%-1.2%-11.8%
Q4 2025+0.5%+16.9%+25.6%
Q3 2025+12.7%-2.5%-2.8%
Q1 2025+1.9%+35.0%+10.6%
Q4 2024-20.4%-24.8%-30.8%
Q3 2024+2.6%+10.6%-7.2%
Q2 2024-10.8%-18.4%-15.9%
Q1 2024-4.1%-5.6%-17.2%
Q4 2023+18.0%+22.9%+3.2%
Q3 2023-2.6%-1.4%-13.0%
Q2 2023-4.2%-1.1%-8.8%
Q1 2023-4.8%-11.1%-5.8%
Q4 2022+3.0%+4.2%-6.7%
Q3 2022+13.2%+19.6%+26.8%
Q2 2022+4.2%+3.5%-0.3%
Q1 2022+8.7%+14.5%+23.6%
Q4 2021-18.3%-14.6%-6.4%
Q3 2021+8.2%+7.1%-6.9%
Q2 2021+6.8%-1.2%+1.8%
Q1 2021+2.9%+7.3%+9.9%
Q4 2020+13.6%+27.1%+31.7%
Q3 2020-2.3%+8.7%+3.9%
Q2 2020+2.1%+11.1%+8.0%
Q1 2020+17.0%+26.2%+66.0%
Q4 2019+5.0%+6.0%-52.5%
Q3 2019+12.3%+17.5%+7.7%
Q2 2019-3.3%-8.4%-7.0%
Q1 2019-2.4%-3.0%-22.3%
Q4 2018+7.9%+14.7%+20.9%
Q3 2018-0.3%-4.0%-11.5%
Q2 2018+4.8%+4.2%+6.9%
Q1 2018+7.0%+7.5%+15.0%
Q4 2017+8.6%+9.2%+13.4%
Q3 2017-8.5%-6.9%-7.2%
Q2 2017-4.5%-3.5%-12.1%
Q1 2017+10.2%+12.0%-7.2%
Q4 2016+11.2%+0.4%-4.4%
Q3 2016+2.5%-2.5%+5.4%
Q2 2016-5.2%-0.7%+7.1%
Q1 2016-6.8%
Q4 2015-19.3%
Q3 2015+10.5%
Q2 2015+4.8%
Q1 2015+1.0%
Q4 2014+4.6%
Q3 2014+11.6%
Q2 2014-3.3%
Q1 2014+6.1%
Q4 2013+1.1%
Q3 2013+5.5%
Q2 2013-7.8%
Q1 2013+4.1%
Q4 2012+9.6%
Q3 2012+28.2%
Q2 2012-18.5%
Q1 2011-2.3%
Q1 2012-10.3%
Q4 2009+5.6%
Q4 2011+5.6%
Q3 2010-1.4%
Q3 2011-1.4%
Q4 2010-2.9%
Q2 2010-2.9%
Q2 2011-2.9%
Q1 2010+1.3%

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