NASDAQ$GPRE

Green Plains Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported net income and strategic review initiation.

Green Plains Inc. reported a net income of $7.2 million for Q4 2023, a significant improvement compared to the net loss of $38.6 million in the same period of the previous year. The company achieved a 95% utilization rate and is undergoing a strategic review to enhance shareholder value.

  • Net income attributable to Green Plains was $7.2 million, resulting in EPS of $0.12 per diluted share.
  • EBITDA reached $44.7 million.
  • The company completed the acquisition of Green Plains Partners LP, aiming to streamline operations and improve cash flow.
  • A comprehensive strategic review process was initiated to explore opportunities for enhancing value.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$712M

Previous: $914M-22.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.12

Previous: -$0.66+118.2%
Ethanol Production (gallons)

620.3M

No prior period
Consolidated Ethanol Crush Margin

$49.7M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$30.2M

Previous: $29.1M-203.7%
Net Income

$7.23M

Previous: -$38.6M+118.7%
Operating Income

$16.3M

Previous: -$23M+170.7%
Gross Profit

$79.9M

Previous: $39.7M+101.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.62M

Previous: $2.43M+49.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Green Plains · Revenue · Quarterly

$712M

Q4 2023-22.1%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Green Plains · $898M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Ethanol Production
    $773M-19.0%
  • Agribusiness and Energy Services
    $125M

Forward guidance

Green Plains is nearing completion of three instrumental projects that will help define their path to true biorefineries with recurring, higher quality earnings streams.

Tailwinds

  • First commercial-scale clean sugar facility is anticipated to begin commissioning during the first quarter of 2024.
  • Joint venture to build the world’s largest MSC high-protein facility with Tharaldson Ethanol is in the process of commissioning and is anticipated to begin full production in the coming months, further expanding our capacity for Ultra-High Protein.
  • Construction of the facility combining MSC technology with Shell Fiber Conversion Technology is anticipated to be completed this quarter.
  • Nebraska platform is in an advantaged position to capitalize on incentives to reduce carbon intensity.
  • Diversified decarbonization strategy will be a strong contributor to future earnings potential.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+28.2%

Q3 2012

Best reaction

-20.4%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.4%-1.2%-11.8%
Q4 2025+0.5%+16.9%+25.6%
Q3 2025+12.7%-2.5%-2.8%
Q1 2025+1.9%+35.0%+10.6%
Q4 2024-20.4%-24.8%-30.8%
Q3 2024+2.6%+10.6%-7.2%
Q2 2024-10.8%-18.4%-15.9%
Q1 2024-4.1%-5.6%-17.2%
Q4 2023+18.0%+22.9%+3.2%
Q3 2023-2.6%-1.4%-13.0%
Q2 2023-4.2%-1.1%-8.8%
Q1 2023-4.8%-11.1%-5.8%
Q4 2022+3.0%+4.2%-6.7%
Q3 2022+13.2%+19.6%+26.8%
Q2 2022+4.2%+3.5%-0.3%
Q1 2022+8.7%+14.5%+23.6%
Q4 2021-18.3%-14.6%-6.4%
Q3 2021+8.2%+7.1%-6.9%
Q2 2021+6.8%-1.2%+1.8%
Q1 2021+2.9%+7.3%+9.9%
Q4 2020+13.6%+27.1%+31.7%
Q3 2020-2.3%+8.7%+3.9%
Q2 2020+2.1%+11.1%+8.0%
Q1 2020+17.0%+26.2%+66.0%
Q4 2019+5.0%+6.0%-52.5%
Q3 2019+12.3%+17.5%+7.7%
Q2 2019-3.3%-8.4%-7.0%
Q1 2019-2.4%-3.0%-22.3%
Q4 2018+7.9%+14.7%+20.9%
Q3 2018-0.3%-4.0%-11.5%
Q2 2018+4.8%+4.2%+6.9%
Q1 2018+7.0%+7.5%+15.0%
Q4 2017+8.6%+9.2%+13.4%
Q3 2017-8.5%-6.9%-7.2%
Q2 2017-4.5%-3.5%-12.1%
Q1 2017+10.2%+12.0%-7.2%
Q4 2016+11.2%+0.4%-4.4%
Q3 2016+2.5%-2.5%+5.4%
Q2 2016-5.2%-0.7%+7.1%
Q1 2016-6.8%
Q4 2015-19.3%
Q3 2015+10.5%
Q2 2015+4.8%
Q1 2015+1.0%
Q4 2014+4.6%
Q3 2014+11.6%
Q2 2014-3.3%
Q1 2014+6.1%
Q4 2013+1.1%
Q3 2013+5.5%
Q2 2013-7.8%
Q1 2013+4.1%
Q4 2012+9.6%
Q3 2012+28.2%
Q2 2012-18.5%
Q1 2011-2.3%
Q1 2012-10.3%
Q4 2009+5.6%
Q4 2011+5.6%
Q3 2010-1.4%
Q3 2011-1.4%
Q4 2010-2.9%
Q2 2010-2.9%
Q2 2011-2.9%
Q1 2010+1.3%

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