NASDAQ$GPRE

Green Plains Inc · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong financial results driven by operational excellence and strategic initiatives.

Green Plains reported a strong third quarter in 2024, with net income of $48.2 million, or $0.69 per diluted share, compared to $22.3 million, or $0.35 per diluted share, for the same period in 2023. The company achieved a plant utilization rate of 97% and record levels of Ultra-High Protein and renewable corn oil production. Revenues were $658.7 million, and EBITDA was $83.3 million, inclusive of a $30.7 million gain on sale of assets.

  • Net income attributable to Green Plains was $48.2 million, or EPS of $0.69 per diluted share.
  • EBITDA was $83.3 million, inclusive of a $30.7 million gain on sale of assets.
  • Consolidated crush margin was $58.3 million in the third quarter.
  • Plant utilization rate was 97%, extending track record of strong and improving operations.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$659M

Previous: $893M-26.2%
EPS

$0.69

Previous: $0.27+155.6%
Ethanol Production (gallons)

564.6M

No prior period
Consolidated Ethanol Crush Margin

$58.3M

Previous: $48.5M+20.2%
Distillers Grains (equivalent dried tons)

489.0K

No prior period
Ultra-High Protein (tons)

69.0K

No prior period
Renewable Corn Oil (pounds)

77.1M

No prior period
Corn Consumed (bushels)

75.1M

No prior period
Ethanol Sold (gallons) - Agribusiness

262.1M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$67.8M

Previous: -$77.9M+12.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$19.6M

Previous: -$55.6M+64.7%
Net Income

$48.2M

Previous: $22.3M+116.0%
Operating Income

$56.1M

Previous: $21.2M+164.7%
Gross Profit

$78.1M

Previous: $81.5M-4.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$227M

Previous: $327M-30.4%
Total Assets

$1.76B

Previous: $1.95B-9.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.57M

Previous: $2.74M+30.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Green Plains · Revenue · Quarterly

$659M

Q3 2024-26.2%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Green Plains · $898M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Ethanol Production
    $773M-19.0%
  • Agribusiness and Energy Services
    $125M

Forward guidance

Green Plains is focused on its 'Advantage Nebraska' strategy and expects construction of compression facilities to commence in the coming weeks, targeting operation in the second half of 2025. The company is also focused on growing market share in higher value pet and international aquaculture markets and is optimizing its Clean Sugar Technology deployment in Shenandoah.

Tailwinds

  • On track for second half of 2025 operation.
  • 287 million gallons of capacity is on track to be decarbonized next year.
  • Increasing and diversifying customer base for high protein ingredients.
  • Delivered a production record of Ultra-high Protein in the quarter.
  • Clean Sugar Technology deployment in Shenandoah is operational with samples sent to customers.

Headwinds

  • Share price does not reflect the value of decarbonization opportunity.
  • Lower weighted average selling prices on ethanol, distillers grains and renewable corn oil.
  • Lower volumes sold on ethanol and distillers grains within ethanol production segment.
  • Revenues were also lower within agribusiness and energy services segment primarily due to lower weighted average ethanol trading prices.
  • Interest expense increased $0.5 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024 compared with the same period in 2023 primarily due to higher loan fees in connection with the repayment of the Green Plains Partners term loan.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

+1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+28.2%

Q3 2012

Best reaction

-20.4%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.4%-1.2%-11.8%
Q4 2025+0.5%+16.9%+25.6%
Q3 2025+12.7%-2.5%-2.8%
Q1 2025+1.9%+35.0%+10.6%
Q4 2024-20.4%-24.8%-30.8%
Q3 2024+2.6%+10.6%-7.2%
Q2 2024-10.8%-18.4%-15.9%
Q1 2024-4.1%-5.6%-17.2%
Q4 2023+18.0%+22.9%+3.2%
Q3 2023-2.6%-1.4%-13.0%
Q2 2023-4.2%-1.1%-8.8%
Q1 2023-4.8%-11.1%-5.8%
Q4 2022+3.0%+4.2%-6.7%
Q3 2022+13.2%+19.6%+26.8%
Q2 2022+4.2%+3.5%-0.3%
Q1 2022+8.7%+14.5%+23.6%
Q4 2021-18.3%-14.6%-6.4%
Q3 2021+8.2%+7.1%-6.9%
Q2 2021+6.8%-1.2%+1.8%
Q1 2021+2.9%+7.3%+9.9%
Q4 2020+13.6%+27.1%+31.7%
Q3 2020-2.3%+8.7%+3.9%
Q2 2020+2.1%+11.1%+8.0%
Q1 2020+17.0%+26.2%+66.0%
Q4 2019+5.0%+6.0%-52.5%
Q3 2019+12.3%+17.5%+7.7%
Q2 2019-3.3%-8.4%-7.0%
Q1 2019-2.4%-3.0%-22.3%
Q4 2018+7.9%+14.7%+20.9%
Q3 2018-0.3%-4.0%-11.5%
Q2 2018+4.8%+4.2%+6.9%
Q1 2018+7.0%+7.5%+15.0%
Q4 2017+8.6%+9.2%+13.4%
Q3 2017-8.5%-6.9%-7.2%
Q2 2017-4.5%-3.5%-12.1%
Q1 2017+10.2%+12.0%-7.2%
Q4 2016+11.2%+0.4%-4.4%
Q3 2016+2.5%-2.5%+5.4%
Q2 2016-5.2%-0.7%+7.1%
Q1 2016-6.8%
Q4 2015-19.3%
Q3 2015+10.5%
Q2 2015+4.8%
Q1 2015+1.0%
Q4 2014+4.6%
Q3 2014+11.6%
Q2 2014-3.3%
Q1 2014+6.1%
Q4 2013+1.1%
Q3 2013+5.5%
Q2 2013-7.8%
Q1 2013+4.1%
Q4 2012+9.6%
Q3 2012+28.2%
Q2 2012-18.5%
Q1 2011-2.3%
Q1 2012-10.3%
Q4 2009+5.6%
Q4 2011+5.6%
Q3 2010-1.4%
Q3 2011-1.4%
Q4 2010-2.9%
Q2 2010-2.9%
Q2 2011-2.9%
Q1 2010+1.3%

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