NASDAQ$GPRE

Green Plains Inc · Q1 2024 earnings

Q1 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net loss and lower revenues due to weaker margins across the product mix and industry oversupply, but is making progress in decarbonization and higher protein production.

Green Plains Inc. reported a net loss attributable to the company of $51.4 million, or ($0.81) per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $70.3 million, or ($1.20) per diluted share, for the same period in 2023. Revenues were $597.2 million, down from $832.9 million in the same period last year. The company is focused on decarbonizing assets and increasing higher protein production.

  • EPS of ($0.81) per basic and diluted share compared to EPS of ($1.20) per basic and diluted share for the same period in the prior year.
  • Announced new specialty feed ingredient brand: Sequence™ with current sales equivalent to approximately 10% of current high protein production capacity with targets of 20-30% of our capacity expected to be met by year end.
  • World’s first commercial scale Clean Sugar Technology (CST™) facility in Shenandoah, Iowa, is mechanically complete and in the commissioning phase, with shipments to customers beginning in the second quarter of 2024.
  • First turnkey joint venture MSC™ facility, GP Turnkey Tharaldson LLC, in Casselton, North Dakota, is in commissioning and anticipating to ship the first commercial quantities during the second quarter of 2024.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$597M

Previous: $833M-28.3%
EPS

-$0.81

Previous: -$1.20+32.5%
Ethanol Production (gallons)

505.7M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$21.8M

Previous: -$32.6M+33.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$73.2M

Previous: -$103M+28.9%
Net Income

-$51.4M

Previous: -$70.3M+26.9%
Operating Income

-$44.9M

Previous: -$56.5M+20.6%
Gross Profit

$8.37M

Previous: $7.94M+5.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$237M

Previous: $354M-33.0%
Total Assets

$1.8B

Previous: $2.03B-11.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.05M

Previous: $2.83M+8.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Green Plains · Revenue · Quarterly

$597M

Q1 2024-28.3%vs Q1 2023
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Green Plains · $898M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Ethanol Production
    $773M-19.0%
  • Agribusiness and Energy Services
    $125M

Forward guidance

The outlook for the second quarter has improved and the company is well positioned to participate in this upside through the remainder of the year.

Tailwinds

  • Ethanol at a significant discount to wholesale gasoline as we move into summer driving season.
  • Anticipate driving demand will begin to pick up.
  • Anticipate demand will draw down stocks.
  • Margins have come off of their lows across our platform.
  • The outlook for the second quarter has improved.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2024

Historical avgQ1 2024

+1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+28.2%

Q3 2012

Best reaction

-20.4%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.4%-1.2%-11.8%
Q4 2025+0.5%+16.9%+25.6%
Q3 2025+12.7%-2.5%-2.8%
Q1 2025+1.9%+35.0%+10.6%
Q4 2024-20.4%-24.8%-30.8%
Q3 2024+2.6%+10.6%-7.2%
Q2 2024-10.8%-18.4%-15.9%
Q1 2024-4.1%-5.6%-17.2%
Q4 2023+18.0%+22.9%+3.2%
Q3 2023-2.6%-1.4%-13.0%
Q2 2023-4.2%-1.1%-8.8%
Q1 2023-4.8%-11.1%-5.8%
Q4 2022+3.0%+4.2%-6.7%
Q3 2022+13.2%+19.6%+26.8%
Q2 2022+4.2%+3.5%-0.3%
Q1 2022+8.7%+14.5%+23.6%
Q4 2021-18.3%-14.6%-6.4%
Q3 2021+8.2%+7.1%-6.9%
Q2 2021+6.8%-1.2%+1.8%
Q1 2021+2.9%+7.3%+9.9%
Q4 2020+13.6%+27.1%+31.7%
Q3 2020-2.3%+8.7%+3.9%
Q2 2020+2.1%+11.1%+8.0%
Q1 2020+17.0%+26.2%+66.0%
Q4 2019+5.0%+6.0%-52.5%
Q3 2019+12.3%+17.5%+7.7%
Q2 2019-3.3%-8.4%-7.0%
Q1 2019-2.4%-3.0%-22.3%
Q4 2018+7.9%+14.7%+20.9%
Q3 2018-0.3%-4.0%-11.5%
Q2 2018+4.8%+4.2%+6.9%
Q1 2018+7.0%+7.5%+15.0%
Q4 2017+8.6%+9.2%+13.4%
Q3 2017-8.5%-6.9%-7.2%
Q2 2017-4.5%-3.5%-12.1%
Q1 2017+10.2%+12.0%-7.2%
Q4 2016+11.2%+0.4%-4.4%
Q3 2016+2.5%-2.5%+5.4%
Q2 2016-5.2%-0.7%+7.1%
Q1 2016-6.8%
Q4 2015-19.3%
Q3 2015+10.5%
Q2 2015+4.8%
Q1 2015+1.0%
Q4 2014+4.6%
Q3 2014+11.6%
Q2 2014-3.3%
Q1 2014+6.1%
Q4 2013+1.1%
Q3 2013+5.5%
Q2 2013-7.8%
Q1 2013+4.1%
Q4 2012+9.6%
Q3 2012+28.2%
Q2 2012-18.5%
Q1 2011-2.3%
Q1 2012-10.3%
Q4 2009+5.6%
Q4 2011+5.6%
Q3 2010-1.4%
Q3 2011-1.4%
Q4 2010-2.9%
Q2 2010-2.9%
Q2 2011-2.9%
Q1 2010+1.3%

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