NASDAQ$GPRE

Green Plains Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Green Plains experienced a challenging ethanol margin environment impacted by rail delays and weather-related shutdowns, resulting in a net loss despite increased revenues.

Green Plains Inc. reported a net loss of $38.6 million, or $(0.66) per share, for the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to a net loss of $9.6 million, or $(0.18) per share, for the same period in 2021. Revenues for the quarter increased to $914.0 million from $802.3 million in the prior year. The company's EBITDA was $5.7 million, down from $30.3 million in the same period of 2021.

  • Completed the fifth MSC system, expected to significantly contribute to future earnings.
  • Achieved a positive consolidated crush margin of $0.03 per gallon despite challenging conditions.
  • Protein sales program is strong, with approximately 75% of platform capacity contracted or anticipated for recurring customer sales in 2023.
  • Construction is progressing at the first commercial clean sugar facility in Shenandoah, Iowa.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$914M

Previous: $802M+13.9%
EPS (adj)

-$0.66

Previous: -$0.18-266.7%
Capital Expenditures

$29.1M

Previous: $63.5M-54.1%
Free Cash Flow

$75M

Previous: -$31.4M+339.0%
Net Income

-$38.6M

Previous: -$9.6M-302.1%
Operating Income

-$23M

Previous: $42.6M-154.0%
Gross Profit

$39.7M

Previous: $56M-29.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$445M

Previous: $686M-35.2%
Total Assets

$2.12B

Previous: $686M+209.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.43M

Previous: $2.08M+16.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Green Plains · Revenue · Quarterly

$914M

Q4 2022+13.9%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Green Plains · $920M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Ethanol Production
    $760M+279.3%
  • Agribusiness and Energy Services
    $160M

Forward guidance

Green Plains sees inflection points in transformation and is confident in achieving 2024 financial guidance.

Tailwinds

  • Expanding production of protein ingredients.
  • Expanding production of renewable corn oil.
  • Capturing biogenic carbon dioxide.
  • Converting a portion of starch into dextrose.
  • Strong position to continue executing transformation plan

Headwinds

  • Competition in the industries in which Green Plains operates.
  • Commodity market risks.
  • Financial market risks.
  • Counterparty risks.
  • Risks associated with changes to federal policy or regulation, including changes to tax laws.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+28.2%

Q3 2012

Best reaction

-20.4%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.4%-1.2%-11.8%
Q4 2025+0.5%+16.9%+25.6%
Q3 2025+12.7%-2.5%-2.8%
Q1 2025+1.9%+35.0%+10.6%
Q4 2024-20.4%-24.8%-30.8%
Q3 2024+2.6%+10.6%-7.2%
Q2 2024-10.8%-18.4%-15.9%
Q1 2024-4.1%-5.6%-17.2%
Q4 2023+18.0%+22.9%+3.2%
Q3 2023-2.6%-1.4%-13.0%
Q2 2023-4.2%-1.1%-8.8%
Q1 2023-4.8%-11.1%-5.8%
Q4 2022+3.0%+4.2%-6.7%
Q3 2022+13.2%+19.6%+26.8%
Q2 2022+4.2%+3.5%-0.3%
Q1 2022+8.7%+14.5%+23.6%
Q4 2021-18.3%-14.6%-6.4%
Q3 2021+8.2%+7.1%-6.9%
Q2 2021+6.8%-1.2%+1.8%
Q1 2021+2.9%+7.3%+9.9%
Q4 2020+13.6%+27.1%+31.7%
Q3 2020-2.3%+8.7%+3.9%
Q2 2020+2.1%+11.1%+8.0%
Q1 2020+17.0%+26.2%+66.0%
Q4 2019+5.0%+6.0%-52.5%
Q3 2019+12.3%+17.5%+7.7%
Q2 2019-3.3%-8.4%-7.0%
Q1 2019-2.4%-3.0%-22.3%
Q4 2018+7.9%+14.7%+20.9%
Q3 2018-0.3%-4.0%-11.5%
Q2 2018+4.8%+4.2%+6.9%
Q1 2018+7.0%+7.5%+15.0%
Q4 2017+8.6%+9.2%+13.4%
Q3 2017-8.5%-6.9%-7.2%
Q2 2017-4.5%-3.5%-12.1%
Q1 2017+10.2%+12.0%-7.2%
Q4 2016+11.2%+0.4%-4.4%
Q3 2016+2.5%-2.5%+5.4%
Q2 2016-5.2%-0.7%+7.1%
Q1 2016-6.8%
Q4 2015-19.3%
Q3 2015+10.5%
Q2 2015+4.8%
Q1 2015+1.0%
Q4 2014+4.6%
Q3 2014+11.6%
Q2 2014-3.3%
Q1 2014+6.1%
Q4 2013+1.1%
Q3 2013+5.5%
Q2 2013-7.8%
Q1 2013+4.1%
Q4 2012+9.6%
Q3 2012+28.2%
Q2 2012-18.5%
Q1 2011-2.3%
Q1 2012-10.3%
Q4 2009+5.6%
Q4 2011+5.6%
Q3 2010-1.4%
Q3 2011-1.4%
Q4 2010-2.9%
Q2 2010-2.9%
Q2 2011-2.9%
Q1 2010+1.3%

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