NASDAQ$GPRE

Green Plains Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Green Plains's financial results improved significantly compared to the prior year, with a consolidated crush margin of 8 cents per gallon and an EBITDA of $8.8 million.

Green Plains Inc. reported a net loss of $34.5 million for Q3 2020, an improvement compared to the $39.0 million loss in the same period last year. Revenues were $424.1 million, down from $632.4 million year-over-year. The company saw a consolidated crush margin of 8 cents per gallon and an EBITDA of $8.8 million.

  • Net loss attributable to the company was $34.5 million, or $(1.00) per diluted share.
  • Revenues were $424.1 million.
  • Consolidated crush margin was $0.08 per gallon.
  • The company had over $182 million in cash at the end of the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$424M

Previous: $632M-32.9%
EPS (adj)

-$1.05

Previous: -$1.15+8.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$85.4M

Previous: -$43.4M-96.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$120M

Previous: -$82.3M-45.6%
Net Income

-$34.5M

Previous: -$39M+11.5%
Operating Income

-$14.2M

Previous: -$42.4M+66.5%
Gross Profit

$30.1M

Previous: $221K+13533.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$150M

Previous: $236M-36.1%
Total Assets

$1.54B

Previous: $1.69B-9.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Green Plains · Revenue · Quarterly

$424M

Q3 2020-32.9%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Green Plains · $848M total across 2 segments · Q3 2020

  • Ethanol Production
    $424M
  • Agribusiness and Energy Services
    $424M

Forward guidance

Green Plains anticipates a stronger fourth quarter based on current market conditions, expected higher operating rates, less negative absorption and the completion of the upgrade at York.

Tailwinds

  • Current market conditions
  • Expected higher operating rates
  • Less negative absorption
  • Completion of the upgrade at York
  • Ultra-high protein products providing an estimated 15 to 20 cents per gallon of initial uplift to the overall margin structure

Headwinds

  • Disruption caused by health epidemics, such as the coronavirus outbreak
  • Competition in the industries in which Green Plains operates
  • Commodity market risks
  • Financial market risks
  • Counterparty risks

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+28.2%

Q3 2012

Best reaction

-20.4%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.4%-1.2%-11.8%
Q4 2025+0.5%+16.9%+25.6%
Q3 2025+12.7%-2.5%-2.8%
Q1 2025+1.9%+35.0%+10.6%
Q4 2024-20.4%-24.8%-30.8%
Q3 2024+2.6%+10.6%-7.2%
Q2 2024-10.8%-18.4%-15.9%
Q1 2024-4.1%-5.6%-17.2%
Q4 2023+18.0%+22.9%+3.2%
Q3 2023-2.6%-1.4%-13.0%
Q2 2023-4.2%-1.1%-8.8%
Q1 2023-4.8%-11.1%-5.8%
Q4 2022+3.0%+4.2%-6.7%
Q3 2022+13.2%+19.6%+26.8%
Q2 2022+4.2%+3.5%-0.3%
Q1 2022+8.7%+14.5%+23.6%
Q4 2021-18.3%-14.6%-6.4%
Q3 2021+8.2%+7.1%-6.9%
Q2 2021+6.8%-1.2%+1.8%
Q1 2021+2.9%+7.3%+9.9%
Q4 2020+13.6%+27.1%+31.7%
Q3 2020-2.3%+8.7%+3.9%
Q2 2020+2.1%+11.1%+8.0%
Q1 2020+17.0%+26.2%+66.0%
Q4 2019+5.0%+6.0%-52.5%
Q3 2019+12.3%+17.5%+7.7%
Q2 2019-3.3%-8.4%-7.0%
Q1 2019-2.4%-3.0%-22.3%
Q4 2018+7.9%+14.7%+20.9%
Q3 2018-0.3%-4.0%-11.5%
Q2 2018+4.8%+4.2%+6.9%
Q1 2018+7.0%+7.5%+15.0%
Q4 2017+8.6%+9.2%+13.4%
Q3 2017-8.5%-6.9%-7.2%
Q2 2017-4.5%-3.5%-12.1%
Q1 2017+10.2%+12.0%-7.2%
Q4 2016+11.2%+0.4%-4.4%
Q3 2016+2.5%-2.5%+5.4%
Q2 2016-5.2%-0.7%+7.1%
Q1 2016-6.8%
Q4 2015-19.3%
Q3 2015+10.5%
Q2 2015+4.8%
Q1 2015+1.0%
Q4 2014+4.6%
Q3 2014+11.6%
Q2 2014-3.3%
Q1 2014+6.1%
Q4 2013+1.1%
Q3 2013+5.5%
Q2 2013-7.8%
Q1 2013+4.1%
Q4 2012+9.6%
Q3 2012+28.2%
Q2 2012-18.5%
Q1 2011-2.3%
Q1 2012-10.3%
Q4 2009+5.6%
Q4 2011+5.6%
Q3 2010-1.4%
Q3 2011-1.4%
Q4 2010-2.9%
Q2 2010-2.9%
Q2 2011-2.9%
Q1 2010+1.3%

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