NASDAQ$AFRM

Affirm · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Affirm delivered strong performance driven by GMV growth and active consumer increase.

Affirm Holdings, Inc. reported a 39% increase in total revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022, driven by continued GMV growth, higher interest income, and greater servicing income. Active merchants increased significantly, and active consumers grew by 96% year-over-year.

  • GMV increased by 77% to $4.4 billion.
  • Active merchants increased from 29,000 to 235,000.
  • Active consumers grew by 96% to 14.0 million.
  • Total revenue increased by 39% to $364.1 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$364M

Previous: $262M+39.1%
EPS (adj)

-$0.65

Previous: -$0.48-35.4%
GMV

$4.4B

Previous: $2.5B+76.0%
Active Consumers

14.0M

Previous: 7.1M+97.2%
Tx per Consumer

3

Previous: 2.3+30.4%
Active Merchants

235.0K

Previous: 29.0K+710.3%
Capital Expenditures

$27M

Previous: $7.84M+244.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$86.1M

Previous: -$27.8M-210.4%
Net Income

-$186M

Previous: -$128M-45.4%
Operating Income

-$277M

Previous: -$125M-122.3%
Gross Profit

$181M

Previous: $169M+7.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.26B

Previous: $1.47B-14.4%
Total Assets

$6.97B

Previous: $4.87B+43.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$111M

Previous: $136M-18.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Affirm · Revenue · Quarterly

$364M

Q4 2022+39.1%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Affirm provided financial outlook for the fiscal first quarter and full year 2023, assuming the current forward interest rate curve and early signs of macroeconomic stress persisting through the fiscal year.

Tailwinds

  • GMV for fiscal Q1 2023 is expected to be $4.20 to $4.40 billion.
  • Revenue for fiscal Q1 2023 is expected to be $345 to $365 million.
  • GMV for fiscal year 2023 is expected to be $20.50 to $22.00 billion.
  • Revenue for fiscal year 2023 is expected to be $1,625 to $1,725 million.
  • The Company expects equity capital required as a percent of total platform portfolio to remain below 5% throughout the fiscal year.

Headwinds

  • Transaction Costs for fiscal Q1 2023 is expected to be $176 to $188 million.
  • Revenue Less Transaction Costs for fiscal Q1 2023 is expected to be $169 to $177 million.
  • Adjusted Operating Margin for fiscal Q1 2023 is expected to be (12) to (10) percent.
  • Transaction Costs for fiscal year 2023 is expected to be $865 to $915 million.
  • Adjusted Operating Margin for fiscal year 2023 is expected to be (6.5) to (4.5) percent.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

35%

9 / 26 earnings

Positive

+62.1%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-37.7%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026-1.2%-6.2%-5.6%
Q2 2026-4.0%-4.8%-13.0%
Q1 2026+11.7%+19.7%+3.1%
Q3 2025-14.7%+4.2%+8.6%
Q2 2025+21.8%+22.5%-15.8%
Q1 2025-7.0%+15.2%+43.8%
Q4 2024+28.1%+35.4%+26.6%
Q3 2024-0.3%-8.3%-13.9%
Q2 2024-1.7%-10.9%-13.1%
Q1 2024+12.5%+3.6%+90.4%
Q4 2023+22.6%+32.0%+39.1%
Q3 2023+2.6%+1.1%+57.9%
Q2 2023-22.8%-26.2%-39.7%
Q1 2023-22.6%+8.8%-25.7%
Q4 2022-18.7%-22.1%-36.2%
Q3 2022+62.1%+72.5%+39.7%
Q2 2022-37.7%-40.0%-58.7%
Q1 2022-3.8%-6.2%-27.3%
Q4 2019-8.4%-3.0%+24.8%
Q4 2021+41.3%+23.4%+61.3%
Q3 2020-4.4%-1.2%+24.8%
Q3 2021+2.7%+0.0%+11.6%
Q1 2021-11.4%-12.0%-35.1%
Q4 2020-11.4%-12.0%-35.1%
Q2 2020-11.4%-12.0%-35.1%
Q2 2021-7.6%-12.5%-41.6%
Q1 2020

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro