NASDAQ$AFRM

Affirm · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Affirm delivered a strong third quarter, outperforming its outlook despite macroeconomic and funding volatility.

Affirm reported a solid Q3 2023, exceeding expectations with GMV growth, impressive RLTC performance, and increased Funding Capacity despite economic challenges. The company is progressing towards adjusted operating income profitability as it exits FY'23.

  • Gross Merchandise Volume was $4.6 billion, exceeding the $4.4-$4.5 billion outlook.
  • Revenue was $381 million, surpassing the $360-$380 million outlook.
  • Revenue Less Transaction Costs (RLTC) reached $167 million, compared to the $140-$150 million outlook.
  • Transactions per active consumer grew by 34%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$381M

Previous: $355M+7.4%
EPS (adj)

-$0.69

Previous: -$0.19-263.2%
Active Consumers

16.0M

Previous: 12.7M+26.0%
Tx per Consumer

3.6

Previous: 2.7+33.3%
Active Merchants

245.7K

Previous: 207.0K+18.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$95.9M

Previous: -$59.3M-61.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$302M

Previous: -$114M-164.7%
Net Income

-$206M

Previous: -$54.7M-276.2%
Operating Income

-$310M

Previous: -$227M-36.8%
Gross Profit

$315M

Previous: $288M+9.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$972M

Previous: $2.26B-57.0%
Total Assets

$7.51B

Previous: $7.03B+6.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$107M

Previous: $98.4M+8.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Affirm · Revenue · Quarterly

$381M

Q3 2023+7.4%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Affirm anticipates achieving a sustained profitability run rate, on an Adjusted Operating Income basis, as they exit fiscal year 2023. They are also slightly improving the midpoint of their full-year outlook across all metrics.

Tailwinds

  • Loan delinquency rate to increase in FQ4'23 in line with normal seasonality.
  • Allowance for credit losses as a percentage of loans held for investment to increase modestly.
  • Savings from the February restructuring will be greater in FQ4 than in FQ3 due to the timing of implementation.
  • The current forward interest rate curve and negative consumer sentiment will persist through the remainder of the fiscal year ending June 30, 2023.
  • No improvement in macroeconomic conditions is expected.

Headwinds

  • Credit performance: in line with normal seasonality, we expect our loan delinquency rate to increase in FQ4’23.
  • We also expect our allowance for credit losses as a percentage of loans held for investment to increase modestly.
  • Workforce and operating expense reductions: because the cost restructuring measures announced in February were not implemented until mid-FQ3’23, the savings from the February restructuring will be greater in FQ4 than in FQ3.
  • Interest rates and macroeconomic environment: the current forward interest rate curve and negative consumer sentiment will persist through the remainder of the fiscal year ending June 30, 2023, with no improvement in macroeconomic conditions.
  • These factors are reflected in our RLTC outlook.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

35%

9 / 26 earnings

Positive

+62.1%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-37.7%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026-1.2%-6.2%-5.6%
Q2 2026-4.0%-4.8%-13.0%
Q1 2026+11.7%+19.7%+3.1%
Q3 2025-14.7%+4.2%+8.6%
Q2 2025+21.8%+22.5%-15.8%
Q1 2025-7.0%+15.2%+43.8%
Q4 2024+28.1%+35.4%+26.6%
Q3 2024-0.3%-8.3%-13.9%
Q2 2024-1.7%-10.9%-13.1%
Q1 2024+12.5%+3.6%+90.4%
Q4 2023+22.6%+32.0%+39.1%
Q3 2023+2.6%+1.1%+57.9%
Q2 2023-22.8%-26.2%-39.7%
Q1 2023-22.6%+8.8%-25.7%
Q4 2022-18.7%-22.1%-36.2%
Q3 2022+62.1%+72.5%+39.7%
Q2 2022-37.7%-40.0%-58.7%
Q1 2022-3.8%-6.2%-27.3%
Q4 2019-8.4%-3.0%+24.8%
Q4 2021+41.3%+23.4%+61.3%
Q3 2020-4.4%-1.2%+24.8%
Q3 2021+2.7%+0.0%+11.6%
Q1 2021-11.4%-12.0%-35.1%
Q4 2020-11.4%-12.0%-35.1%
Q2 2020-11.4%-12.0%-35.1%
Q2 2021-7.6%-12.5%-41.6%
Q1 2020

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