NASDAQ$AFRM

Affirm · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Affirm delivered excellent results, marked by accelerating GMV growth and improved credit performance.

Affirm reported a 51% increase in revenue to $576 million and a 36% increase in GMV to $6.3 billion for the third fiscal quarter of 2024. The company's credit performance remained stable, and its funding capacity increased slightly. Adjusted operating income improved to $79 million, compared to a loss of $6 million in the same quarter last year.

  • GMV grew 36% year over year to $6.3 billion, accelerating for a fourth consecutive quarter.
  • Total revenue increased by 51% year over year to $576 million.
  • Active consumers increased 13% year over year to 18.1 million.
  • Active merchant count grew 19% year over year to 292,000.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$576M

Previous: $381M+51.2%
EPS

-$0.43

Previous: -$0.69+37.7%
GMV

$6.3B

No prior period
Active Consumers

18.1M

Previous: 16.0M+13.1%
Tx per Consumer

4.6

Previous: 3.6+27.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$121M

Previous: -$95.9M-26.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$255M

Previous: -$302M+15.5%
Net Income

-$134M

Previous: -$206M+34.9%
Operating Income

-$161M

Previous: -$310M+48.1%
Gross Profit

$454M

Previous: $315M+44.2%
R&D Expense

$125M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$77.1M

Previous: $107M-27.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Affirm · Revenue · Quarterly

$576M

Q3 2024+51.2%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Affirm provided financial outlook for Fiscal Q4 2024, anticipating revenue between $585 million and $605 million and GMV between $6.75 billion and $6.95 billion. Adjusted Operating Margin is expected to be between 15 and 17 percent.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue is expected to be between $585 million and $605 million.
  • GMV is projected to be between $6.75 billion and $6.95 billion.
  • Adjusted Operating Margin is anticipated to be between 15 and 17 percent.
  • Equity Capital Required (“ECR”) as a percentage of Total Platform Portfolio (“ECR Ratio”) is expected to remain near FQ3’24 levels.
  • The substantial majority of the benefit from our pricing initiatives will be realized by the end of fiscal year 2024.

Headwinds

  • Revenue is expected to be between $585 million and $605 million.
  • GMV is projected to be between $6.75 billion and $6.95 billion.
  • Adjusted Operating Margin is anticipated to be between 15 and 17 percent.
  • Affirm Money Account, the business-to-business (B2B) product, is not expected to be a material contributor during fiscal year 2024.
  • International growth outside of North America are not expected to be material contributors during fiscal year 2024.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

35%

9 / 26 earnings

Positive

+62.1%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-37.7%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026-1.2%-6.2%-5.6%
Q2 2026-4.0%-4.8%-13.0%
Q1 2026+11.7%+19.7%+3.1%
Q3 2025-14.7%+4.2%+8.6%
Q2 2025+21.8%+22.5%-15.8%
Q1 2025-7.0%+15.2%+43.8%
Q4 2024+28.1%+35.4%+26.6%
Q3 2024-0.3%-8.3%-13.9%
Q2 2024-1.7%-10.9%-13.1%
Q1 2024+12.5%+3.6%+90.4%
Q4 2023+22.6%+32.0%+39.1%
Q3 2023+2.6%+1.1%+57.9%
Q2 2023-22.8%-26.2%-39.7%
Q1 2023-22.6%+8.8%-25.7%
Q4 2022-18.7%-22.1%-36.2%
Q3 2022+62.1%+72.5%+39.7%
Q2 2022-37.7%-40.0%-58.7%
Q1 2022-3.8%-6.2%-27.3%
Q4 2019-8.4%-3.0%+24.8%
Q4 2021+41.3%+23.4%+61.3%
Q3 2020-4.4%-1.2%+24.8%
Q3 2021+2.7%+0.0%+11.6%
Q1 2021-11.4%-12.0%-35.1%
Q4 2020-11.4%-12.0%-35.1%
Q2 2020-11.4%-12.0%-35.1%
Q2 2021-7.6%-12.5%-41.6%
Q1 2020

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